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UNDER THE WEATHER CLIMATE, ECOSYSTEMS, AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and Human Health Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS • 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. • Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Global Change Research Program, and the Electric Power Research Institute. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Under the weather : climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease / National Research Council Division on Earth and Life Studies Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and Human Health. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-07278-6 1. Medical climatology. 2. Epidemiology. 3. Communicable diseases. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Climate, Ecosystems, Infectious Disease, and Human Health. RA793 .U53 2001 616.9'88—dc21 2001001905 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) www.nap.edu Cover: Images on the cover were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "Public Health Image Library" at http://phil.cdc.gov/phil/default.asp and the NOAA Photo Library at: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov. Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. COMMITTEE ON CLIMATE, ECOSYSTEMS, INFECTIOUS DISEASE, AND HUMAN HEALTH Members DONALD BURKE (Chair), Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland ANN CARMICHAEL, Indiana University, Bloomington DANA FOCKS, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Gainesville, Florida DARRELL JAY GRIMES, University of Southern Mississippi, Ocean Springs JOHN HARTE, University of California, Berkeley SUBHASH LELE, University of Alberta, Canada PIM MARTENS, Maastricht University, Netherlands JONATHAN MAYER, University of Washington, Seattle LINDA MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROGER PULWARTY, University of Colorado, Boulder LESLIE REAL, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia CHESTER ROPELEWSKI, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York JOAN ROSE, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg ROBERT SHOPE, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland MARK WILSON, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor NRC Staff LAURIE GELLER, Study Director SUSAN ROBERTS, Program Officer JONATHAN DAVIS, Program Officer TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant v BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE The Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) was established by the NRC to advance understanding of the earth’s atmosphere and climate, to help apply this knowledge to benefit the public, and to advise the federal government on problems and programs within the Board’s areas of expertise. The BASC assisted in the development and oversight of the CEIDH study. ERIC J. BARRON (Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN, University of Oklahoma, Norman STEVEN F. CLIFFORD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado GEORGE L. FREDERICK, Radian Electronic Systems, Austin, Texas MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts JUDITH L. LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C. ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine ROBERT T. RYAN, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C. MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland THOMAS F. TASCIONE, Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Ex Officio Members DONALD S. BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland DARA ENTEKHABI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MARIO MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle vi NRC Staff ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer ALEXANDRA ISERN, Program Officer PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Program Officer DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Project Assistant CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant vii Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: William E. Gordon, Rice University, Houston, Texas Nicholas Graham, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, California Donald A. Henderson, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland Joshua Lederberg, The Rockefeller University, New York Simon Levin, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Mercedes Pascual, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Roger Pielke, Jr., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Arthur Reingold, University of California, Berkeley Peter B. Rhines, University of Washington, Seattle David J. Rogers, University of Oxford, England Mary Wilson, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ix