Nội dung

What do we know about climate change? What is the relationship between trade and climate change? How does trade affect greenhouse gas emissions and can more open trade help to address climate change? What is the range of national measures that can contribute to global mitigation efforts? These are just some of the questions discussed by this report by the World Trade Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. Trade and Climate Change The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. ISBN: 978-92-870-3522-6 9 789287 035226 This book was printed on paper certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). Trade and Climate Change The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. WTO-UNEP Report Trade and Climate Change A report by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Trade Organization Ludivine Tamiotti Anne Olhoff Robert Teh Benjamin Simmons Vesile Kulaçoğlu Hussein Abaza Disclaimers For the WTO: Any opinions reflected in this publication are the sole responsibility of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Secretariat. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of Members of the WTO. For UNEP: The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Moreover, the views expressed do not necessarily represent the decision or the stated policy of the United Nations Environment Programme, nor does citing of trade names or commercial processes constitute endorsement. © World Trade Organization, 2009. Reproduction of material contained in this document may be made only with written permission of the WTO Publications Manager. With written permission of the WTO Publications Manager, reproduction and use of the material contained in this document for non-commercial educational and training purposes is encouraged. WTO ISBN: 978-92-870-3522-6 UNEP ISBN: 978-92-807-3038-8 - Job number: DTI/1188/GE Also available in French and Spanish: French title ISBN: 978-92-870-3523-3 Spanish title ISBN: 978-92-870-3524-0 WTO publications can be obtained through major booksellers or from: WTO Publications World Trade Organization 154, rue de Lausanne CH-1211 Geneva 21 Tel: (41 22) 739 52 08 Fax: (41 22) 739 54 58 Email: publications@wto.org WTO online bookshop: http://onlinebookshop.wto.org WTO website: http://www.wto.org UNEP website: http://www.unep.org Printed by WTO Secretariat, Switzerland, 2009 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................................. iii FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................................... v Part I Contents A. Current knowledge on climate change and its impacts ............................... 2 1. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change ..................................................................... 2 2. Observed and projected climate change and its impacts.................................................................. 9 3. Projected regional and sectoral impacts of climate change ............................................................ 16 B. Responding to climate change: mitigation and adaptation ..................... 24 1. Mitigation and adaptation: defining, comparing and relating the concepts ................................. 24 2. Mitigation: potential, practices and technologies ............................................................................ 26 3. Adaptation: potential, practices and technologies ........................................................................... 38 4. Technology and technology transfer in the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation ..................................................................................................................................... 42 II. TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE ...................... 47 A. Effects of trade and trade opening on greenhouse gas emissions ......................................................................................... 48 1. Trends in global trade .......................................................................................................................... 48 2. Scale, composition and technique effects ......................................................................................... 49 3. Assessments of the effect of trade opening on emissions ............................................................... 53 4. Trade and transport ............................................................................................................................. 58 B. Contribution of trade and trade opening to mitigation and adaptation efforts........................................................................................................... 61 1. Technological spillovers from trade .................................................................................................... 61 2. Trade as a means of economic adaptation to climate change ........................................................ 62 C. Possible impact of climate change on trade ........................................................ 64 i Part III CLIMATE CHANGE: THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE......................................................................................................... 1 Part IV I. Part II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................... vii Trade and Climate Change III. MULTILATERAL WORK RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE........................... 67 A. Multilateral action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ........................... 68 1. Framework Convention on Climate Change ..................................................................................... 68 2. The Kyoto Protocol ............................................................................................................................... 71 3. Post-2012 UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol negotiations ...................................................................... 76 4. Montreal Protocol ................................................................................................................................. 78 B. Trade negotiations .................................................................................................................. 80 1. Improving access to climate-friendly goods and services ............................................................... 80 2. Mutual supportiveness between trade and environment ................................................................ 82 IV. NATIONAL POLICIES TO MITIGATE, AND ADAPT TO, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THEIR TRADE IMPLICATIONS ............................. 87 A. Price and market mechanisms to internalize environmental costs of GHG emissions .................................................................. 90 1. Domestic measures.............................................................................................................................. 90 2. Border measures .................................................................................................................................. 98 3. Relevant WTO rules ........................................................................................................................... 103 B. Financial mechanisms to promote the development and deployment of climate-friendly goods and technologies .......................... 110 1. Rationale ............................................................................................................................................. 110 2. Scope .................................................................................................................................................. 112 3. Type of support................................................................................................................................... 112 4. Relevant WTO rules ........................................................................................................................... 115 C. Technical requirements to promote the use of climate-friendly goods and technologies.............................................................. 117 1. Key characteristics ............................................................................................................................ 118 2. Key compliance tools ......................................................................................................................... 120 3. Environmental effectiveness............................................................................................................. 123 4. Relevant WTO rules and work .......................................................................................................... 124 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................ 141 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................................... 143 ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS ............................................................................................................ 161 FULL TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................................... 162 ii Part I Acknowledgments The Report is the product of a joint and collaborative effort by the WTO Secretariat and UNEP. The authors also wish to thank the following individuals from outside UNEP and the WTO Secretariat who took the time to review and comment on the earlier versions of the different parts of the Report: Niranjali Amerasinghe (Center for International Environmental Law), Richard Bradley (International Energy Agency), Adrian Macey (New Zealand’s Climate Change Ambassador), Joost Pauwelyn (Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva), Stephen Porter (Center for International Environmental Law), Julia Reinaud (ClimateWorks Foundation) and Dave Sawyer (International Institute for Sustainable Development). Part III From UNEP, Anne Olhoff and Ulrich E. Hansen from the UNEP Risoe Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development are the authors of Part I on “Climate Change: The Current State of Knowledge”, and Benjamin Simmons from UNEP, and Xianli Zhu, John M. Christensen, John M. Callaway from the UNEP Risoe Centre are the authors of Section III.A on “Multilateral Work related to Climate Change: Multilateral action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”. Hussein Abaza, Chief of the UNEP Economics and Trade Branch, managed the preparation of UNEP’s contribution. UNEP would also like to thank for their comments and assistance Ezra Clark, James S. Curlin, Kirsten Halsnaes, Blaise Horisberger, Adrian Lema, Anja von Moltke, Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, Gerald Mutisya, Mark Radka, John Scanlon, Megumi Seki, Rajendra Shende, Fulai Sheng, Lutz Weischer and Kaveh Zahedi. Part II From the WTO, Ludivine Tamiotti and Vesile Kulaçoğlu are the authors of Section III.B on “Multilateral Work related to Climate Change: Trade negotiations” and Part IV on “National Policies to Mitigate, and Adapt to, Climate Change and their Trade Implications”, and Robert Teh is the author of Part II on “Trade and Climate Change: Theory and Evidence”. The Report also benefited from the valuable comments and research assistance of a number of colleagues and consultants in the WTO. The production of the Report was managed by Anthony Martin and Serge Marin-Pache of the WTO Information and External Relations Division. Gratitude is also due to the WTO Language Services and Documentation Division for their hard work. iii Part IV Vesile Kulaçoğlu, Director of the WTO Trade and Environment Division, led the overall preparation of the Report. This report is the outcome of collaborative research between the WTO Secretariat and UNEP. It reviews how trade and climate change policies interact and how they can be mutually supportive. The aim is to promote greater understanding of this interaction and to assist policy-makers in this complex policy area. The report uniquely examines the intersection between trade and climate change from four different but correlated perspectives: the science of climate change; trade theory; multilateral efforts to tackle climate change; and national climate change policies and their effect on trade. The report underlines that, as a critical first step, governments must urgently seal a scientifically-credible and equitable deal in Copenhagen: one that addresses the need for both significant emission reductions and adaptation for vulnerable economies and communities. Moreover, it highlights that there is considerable scope and flexibility under WTO rules for addressing climate change at the national level, and that mitigation measures should be designed and implemented in a manner that ensures that trade and climate policies are mutually supportive. With these findings in mind, we are pleased to present this report. It is an illustration of fruitful and increasing cooperation between our two organizations on issues of common interest. Pascal Lamy Director General WTO Achim Steiner Executive Director UNEP v Part II Part III The WTO and UNEP are partners in the pursuit of sustainable development. As the principal UN agency for the protection of the environment, UNEP has years of experience in the field of climate change. The WTO has also launched its first ever trade and environment negotiation under the Doha Development Agenda. Certain climate change mitigation measures intersect with existing WTO rules and recent discussions in various fora have brought to the fore the importance of better understanding the various linkages between trade and climate change. Part IV Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the international community. Mitigating global warming and adapting to its consequences will require major economic investment and, above all, unequivocal determination on the part of policy-makers. With a challenge of this magnitude, multilateral cooperation is crucial, and a successful conclusion to the ongoing global negotiations on climate change would be the first step towards achieving sustainable development for future generations. As we march towards Copenhagen, we all have a responsibility to make a success of these negotiations. Climate change is not a problem that can afford to wait. It is a threat to future development, peace and prosperity that must be tackled with the greatest sense of urgency by the entire community of nations. Part I Foreword Part III on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapting to the risks posed by climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in climate mitigation technologies. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency (Part IV). It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. The scientific evidence regarding climate change is compelling. Based on a review of thousands of scientific publications, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the warming of the Earth’s climate system is “unequivocal”, and that human activities are “very likely” the cause of this warming. It is estimated that, over the last century, the global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.74° C. Moreover, many greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for long periods of time, and as a result global warming will continue to affect the natural systems of the planet for several hundred years, even if emissions were reduced substantially or halted today. When greenhouse gases emitted in the past are included in the calculations, it has been shown that we are likely to be already committed to global warming of between 1.8° and 2.0° C. Most worrying, however, is that global greenhouse gas emission levels are still growing, and are projected to continue growing over the coming decades unless there are significant changes to current laws, policies and actions. The International Energy Agency has reported that global greenhouse gas emissions have roughly doubled since the beginning of the 1970s. Current estimates indicate that these emissions will increase by between 25 and 90 per cent in the period from 2000 to 2030, with the proportion of greenhouse gases emitted vii Part II Climate change trends Part III The scientific review is followed by an analysis on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change (Part II), and these two parts set the context for the subsequent discussion in the Report, which reviews in greater detail trade and climate change policies at both the international and national level. Climate change: the current state of knowledge Part IV This Report provides an overview of the key linkages between trade and climate change based on a review of available literature and a survey of relevant national policies. It begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on existing and projected climate change; on the impacts associated with climate change; and on the available options for responding, through mitigation and adaptation, to the challenges posed by climate change (Part I). Part I Executive summary