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RKETING & SOCIAL MA ANGE CLIMATE CH T N I O P G TIPPIN G N I N R OR TU ? T N I O P TIPPING POINT OR TURNING POINT? SOCIAL MARKETING & CLIMATE CHANGE Phil Downing and Joe Ballantyne Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen. Three elements of policy are required for an effective global response. The first is the pricing of carbon, implemented through tax, trading or regulation. The second is policy to support innovation and the deployment of low-carbon technologies. And the third is action to remove barriers to energy efficiency, and to inform, educate and persuade individuals about what they can do to respond to climate change. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change People are confused about what they can do. It is individuals as well as Governments and corporations who can make a real difference. To make serious headway towards smarter lifestyles, we need to start with clear and consistent policy and messages, championed both by government and by those outside government. Tony Blair, September 2004 Going green is not some fashionable, pain-free option. It will place a responsibility on business. It will place a responsibility on all of us. That is the point. Tackling climate change is our social responsibility - to the next generation. David Cameron, Conservative Party Leader, October 2006 Humanity is incredibly innovative. We have the capacity to solve the problem of climate change; the only issue is whether we as individuals, governments and businesses have the courage to act together to do what needs to be done. The stakes could not be higher. James Murdoch, Chief Executive, BSkyB, September 2006 Whatever happens over the next few years, our children and grandchildren are going to live in a world in which the climate is very different from the one we grew up with. The concern is that if we keep on increasing carbon emissions then climate change will become irreversible and the long-term consequences catastrophic. Ken Livingstone, Mayor of London, in The Guardian, April 19, 2006 I am a banker, not a scientist, but I believe that climate change may be the biggest environmental challenge this century. Climate change will affect all aspects of modern life, and only by working together government, business, NGOs and individuals - will we be able to create a more sustainable world. Sir John Bond, Group Chairman, HSBC Holdings Plc, October 2005 I say the debate is over. We know the science, we see the threat, and the time for action is now. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California 1 FOREWORD If consumerism is a force for good, then there are few issues that test the truth of that more than the challenge of facing up to climate change. It is true that there are many environmental challenges, from the change in habitats and ecosystems through to the loss of marine life and the extinction of species. But climate change stands out as an emergency because of its reach and the long time-lags involved. Carbon emissions released today persist in the atmosphere over the longer term, as if we were walking with our shadow lengthening on the ground in front of us. Responding to this challenge means acting at every level, from the individual in their lives as consumers and as citizens to business and government at local, national and global levels. This latest research by Ipsos MORI is key in helping all concerned to understand and unpick these choices. Where are we now? How did we get here? And what are the possible solutions? The findings helpfully build on and update the work of Sustainable Consumption Roundtable in our 2006 Report, I Will if You Will. Yes, as consumers we now have more sustainable choices available to us than ever, even if they remain outweighed by unsustainable ones. And there are an ever increasing number of ‘ethical consumers’ who use their purchasing choices to reflect their concerns, values and beliefs. But the truth is that the complexity of information required to make a judgement on product sustainability can leave even the most dedicated green consumer confused and disempowered. So what is the way forward? As Ipsos MORI make clear, we have to create the conditions in which people can act together. This means finding the right level for change. Consumer choice, for example, is a characteristic of systems and not just of individual interactions. Choices like travel to work, for example, are wrapped up in habits and routines - and system change, like the congestion charge in London or cutting energy wasted in transmission, can help to reset us on a more sustainable path. The sustainable choice, in short, becomes the easier choice. At an individual level, social marketing, which encompasses much more than simply communications and information, has a huge role to play here in understanding consumer behaviour and tapping into the motivations that can lead to a truly sustainable pattern of consumption. This is where a consumer focus can genuinely help. Social marketing is a disciplined but powerful toolkit that can help to harness public action on climate change. Climate change cannot be addressed on the quiet. There is no substitute for public action and, although there is a long way to go, we have to start from where the public are. Ed Mayo Chief Executive of the National Consumer Council His latest report on sustainable consumption is The Environmental Contract: how to harness public action on climate change, available on http://www.ncc.org.uk/nccpdf/poldocs/NCC166pb_environmental_contract.pdf The report of the Sustainable Consumption Roundtable, co-chaired by Ed with Alan Knight, is available on http://www.ncc.org.uk/nccpdf/poldocs/NCC125pd_i_will_if_you_will.pdf 2 SUMMARY ‘Everest ice forest is melting’ (Guardian, 30 May 2007); ‘Extreme weather: forecasters warn of more to come’ (Independent, 01 July 2007); ‘Climate change blamed for rise in asthma and hay fever’ (Times, 13 May 2007); ‘The next few years are critical in the fight for the climate’ (Telegraph, 4 February 2007); ‘Pay up…or the planet gets it’ (Sun, 30 October 2006); ‘British armies must ready for global warming’ (Mirror, 25 June 2007). On the subject of climate change the public find themselves in a different world to that of only a few years ago. Barely a day goes by without a media headline about the possible impacts. In the high street consumers are confronted with more and more sustainable choices – HSBC is suddenly a green Bank; Marks & Spencer has its Plan A; Ikea doesn’t give free plastic bags. At the ballot box David Cameron wants the public to “Vote Blue: Go Green”. Arnold Schwarzenegger has traded movie stardom with instigating the US’s flagship low carbon policy, while Al Gore, when not directing Oscar-winning documentaries on climate change, is organising global rock concerts. Maybe we’ve made it. Scientists are at a virtual consensus, NGOs convinced, politicians persuaded, and business on board. Surely then, the debate is over. In the face of a dangerous climatic tipping point, we stand on the verge of a behavioural turning point. Or do we? This report focuses on the perspectives of the public – the way they think and behave in relation to climate change, as well as their values and aspirations. Have they fully bought into the concept of anthropogenic climate change? Are they willing to act? What signs are there already of a transition to low carbon lifestyles, and how far are they really willing to go? Drawing on recent Ipsos MORI research and that of others, we set out to establish the answers to these questions and the prospects for encouraging sustainable lifestyles - what role for behaviour change intervention and social marketing? 1. Attitudes to climate change • There is widespread recognition that the climate, irrespective of the cause, is changing - 88% believe this to be true. Many say they have personally seen evidence of this. • However, the public is out of step with the IPCC, with 41% believing that climate change is being caused by both human activity and natural processes. 46% believe human activity is the main cause. • Only a small minority reject anthropogenic climate change, while almost half (44%) are very concerned. However, there remains a large proportion who are yet to be fully persuaded and hold doubts about the extent of the threat. The public do recognise the notion of environmental limits and acknowledge the need for action, but there is increasing optimism about our ability to address the problem and find solutions. 3 • There is still a strong appetite among the public for more information, and 63% say they need this to come to a firm view on the issue and what it means for them. While broad understanding of what climate change means is increasing – up now to 69% - David Miliband was right, in his final days at Defra, to note that the British public still have a “mixed and confused” idea of the risk posed to the UK. While the debate may be over for some, for others it certainly is not. • The public continue to externalise climate change to other people, places and times. It is increasingly perceived as a major global issue with far-reaching consequences for future generations - 45% say it is the most serious threat facing the World today and 53% believe it will impact significantly on future generations. However, the issue features less prominently nationally and locally, indeed only 9% believe climate change will have a significant impact upon them personally. • Messages questioning climate change and/or its anthropogenic causes – for example Channel 4’s Great Global Warming Swindle and other voices in the media - are having an impact. Complexity in science and notions of probability do not translate easily to the public who, in the absence of definitive ‘proof’, search out signs of doubt. 40% question our ability to predict the climate system, while as many as 56% believe that the scientific jury is still out on the causes of climate change. Uncertainty in the science is matched by widespread confusion and doubts about what actions to take and which products to buy. • As well as messages to educate and reinforce, the language deployed and the way the debate is framed are both very important. Support can shift considerably depending on the nature of the arguments and presentation of the information. 2. Attitudes to actors and agencies • The public look to Government to orchestrate collective action and prefer decision making authority at the national level rather than through the EU or other supranational bodies. The public agree, in principle, that government has the mandate to lead, although their response to potential interventions is more complex. The nature of the intervention is key and certain measures – particularly fiscal – are contentious, whereas others (e.g. ‘editing out’ certain consumer choices, like incandescent light bulbs) are widely supported. • Trust is a key factor impacting on the ability of government to make the case to its electorate about any particular policy measure, and eco-taxation, the Polluter Pays principle and hypothecation all suffer from the stigma of “stealth” taxation. The (successful) introduction of the policy itself can have one of the most marked impacts on public opinion - as in the case of the London Congestion Charge – which enjoyed a considerable surge in support following its introduction. • Consumers are looking to business to take greater action on climate change, and expect greater competition in the next few years around this issue. They want easier choices and more help differentiating environmentally sound products from others. They are also cautious of commercial claims, and businesses face challenges convincing consumers that its efforts are beyond ‘spin’. Certain sectors, such as investment, transport and oil, face more scrutiny than others because environmental objectives are perceived to be fundamentally at odds with their modus operandi. However, the public have taken note of the efforts of companies over the past year. 4 • Local agents are perceived to have the least influence on climate change. Local authorities have traditionally focused on local environmental quality but are becoming more involved (e.g. through the planning system to encourage renewables, or the parking regime to target “gas guzzlers”). The public consider the local community and themselves as individuals to be minor actors - only 4% perceive they have a large influence to combat climate change, while 33% feel they have none. There is also a mismatch between the size of the problem relative to the actions the public are encouraged to take. Communications often play straight into this disconnect, focusing on the minutiae and steering away from the grand and heroic. • A sense of collective action is fundamental, particularly in view of concerns over fairness and the potential for ‘free riders’ to take advantage of individual sacrifices. Indeed, 54% say that they would do more if others did as well. 3. Behaviour change and sustainable lifestyles • Changing behaviour is complex, and environmental behaviours are very different from one another. There is a distinction to be made in terms of conscious behaviours (e.g. buying a car) and subconscious behaviours (e.g. driving a car); between small behaviours likely to change rapidly and those requiring longer time horizons; and between isolated behaviours and interconnected ‘sticky’ behaviours that catalyse others. And the heterogeneity of households and consumers means it is critical to target messages, products and services at particular audiences. • Behaviours are already changing and there are some positive signals. The committed few are becoming larger in number and enough to support impressive, if still niche, progress. Recycling is the success story to date, with rapid shifts in parts of the country. However, many of the current trends remain in the wrong direction and some behaviour – such as driving and taking holidays abroad – appears sacrosanct. • Many consumers still seek to make changes at the margins of their lifestyles and do not perceive a need for a fundamental shift in behaviour. Moreover, their actions do not appear consistent, well planned or systematic – when asked unprompted what they are doing to confront climate change, most cannot identify anything beyond recycling, begging the question whether this has become a token behaviour that discharges responsibility in other areas. The majority of consumers are not aware that some of their actions are associated with a large carbon footprint, e.g. high levels of meat consumption. • At face value the public say they’re willing to do more and go further – 78% agree with this sentiment. However, opt outs and caveats play an important part in what they are willing to change and, as a result, actual behaviour lags behind intentions. Several behavioural levers are potentially important. For example, there are opportunities to tap into the underlying drivers of consumption, whether financial, emotional, social or psychological. There are also opportunities to draw on ‘descriptive norms’ (which teach us how most people around us behave) and ‘injunctive norms’ (which alert us to what is sanctioned or frowned upon) to modify what is considered desirable. 5 Final reflections • The public are currently pulling in different directions. A large group – around 40% - have bought into anthropogenic climate change and are looking to act. A smaller minority – around 15% - reject anthropogenic climate change, while a much larger minority – also around 40% - are yet to be convinced. The latter group are arguably most interesting and important in the battle for hearts and mind because their views remain in flux and they want more information and discussion. • Turning to behaviours, the public is torn between competing and conflicting mindsets. As citizens they want to avert climate change but, at the same time, as consumers they want to go on holiday, own a second home, a big car and the latest electronic goods. They acknowledge their collective responsibilities but guard jealously their personal rights and freedoms. The research community needs to find new ways of understanding these tensions, for example through semiotics. • In terms of what the research says about the potential for social marketing, the evidence supports its role at the centre of the behaviour change agenda as well as demonstrating its versatility to help ‘sell’ policy ideas and measures along with products, services and lifestyles. However, it also shows that social marketing is most effective as part of a wider package of behavioural interventions and legislative shifts. A range of measures, simultaneously, on a number of fronts and allied with political leadership and vision, will be required to encourage, engage and enable the public to act. 6 STATISTICS AT A GLANCE Attitudes to climate change • 88% believe, irrespective of the cause, that the climate is changing. • 68% believe they have personally seen evidence of climate change. • 46% think climate change is mainly caused by humans; 9% think it is mainly caused by natural processes; 41% think it is a mixture of both. • 44% are very concerned about climate change; 38% fairly concerned; and 15% unconcerned. • 22% believe the issue has been exaggerated; 48% strongly disagree. • 70% believe that if there is no change, the world will soon experience a major environmental crisis. • 12% feel they know a great deal about climate change; 57% a fair amount. • 63% want more information in order to form a clear opinion. • 45% see climate change as the most serious threat to the future wellbeing of the world; but only 19% see it as the most important issue facing Britain. • 9% believe climate change will have ‘a great deal’ of impact on them personally; 53% think it will have a great deal of impact on future generations. • 58% cite ‘a cleaner atmosphere’ as the main personal benefit to them if climate change is averted; 31% cite stability for their children and 30% less severe weather. • 40% believe that climate change is too complex and uncertain to make useful forecasts; 56% believe many leading experts still question if human activity is contributing to climate change. • 46% think the world community will find a solution to the problems posed by climate change; 36% disagree and 22% don’t know. • 16% believe the Conservatives have the best policies on climate change; 14% think it is Labour and 14% the Liberal Democrats; 23% don’t know. • 26% trust David Cameron to be more effective in tackling climate change; 25% trust Gordon Brown. Over a third trust neither. 7 Attitudes to key actors and agencies • 66% think the Government has a large influence on limiting climate change; 4% think the same of themselves as individuals. • 66% think that the UK can make a real difference in stopping climate change and 70% agree the Government should take the lead, even if it means using the law to change people’s behaviour. • 59% support more spending on improving bus services; 78% enforcement of minimum energy standards for household appliances; 77% for banning incandescent light bulbs… • …but only 21% support increasing the costs of flying; and 14% increasing tax on petrol. • 39% in London supported the Congestion Charge on its introduction; 58% did four months later. • 38% think retailers are already making positive steps with more action needed; 41% think these steps are small and much more action is needed. • 76% think it is difficult to know which products are really better for the environment; 78% want companies to make it easier for customers to buy low impact products. • 28% strongly agree that more information on a company’s social and environmental performance would influence their decisions about what and where they buy. • 21% strongly agree they personally can help reduce climate change; 50% tend to agree and 15% disagree. • 54% say they would do more if other people did as well. Behaviour change and sustainable lifestyles • The proportion in London Western Riverside who say they recycle ‘everything that can be recycled’ increased from 11% to 42% in four years. • 84% say they have reused carrier bags in the past 12 months; 74% recycled; 58% bought free range eggs and 45% recycled or composted food waste… • ...but only 11% say they have avoided buying products which have been grown out of season and 7% avoided products transported by air. • When asked unprompted, 37% say they are not doing anything to reduce climate change; 22% don’t know; 23% cite recycling; 13% using less electricity. • 22% strongly agree they are prepared to change their behaviour; 56% tend to agree. • 40% identify recycling as the action they believe would be most effective in reducing climate change; 34% say developing cleaner engines for cars; 11% flying on holiday less; 4% conserving water. • 90% associate the word ‘modern’ with a sustainable home; 79% ‘high tech’; 78% ‘fashionable’ and 72% ‘attractive’. 8