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CELEBRATE VIET NAM TEACHERS’ DAY 20/11/2018 THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION - CHALLENGES TO EMPLOYMENT ISSUE IN VIETNAM PHAM THI THU TRANG Faculty of Political Theory, Vietnam Maritime University Abstract The Fourth Industrial Revolution is predicted to bring mankind into the epoch of science and technology, changing the economic and social in the country. However, besides the opportunities, it poses challenges to employment issue and labor markets in many countries. Vietnam is one of the countries that will face those challenges. The abundant human resource potential is likely to become a barrier to future development if the negative consequences and effects of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are not be solved effectively. So, through this article, the authors would like to contribute the insights to further clarify the impact of this revolution on employment issue in our country in the coming years. Keywords: Fourth Industrial Revolution, employment issue. Tóm tắt Cuộc Cách mạng công nghiệp lần thứ tư được dự báo sẽ đưa nhân loại tiến vào kỷ nguyên phát triển nhảy vọt về khoa học, công nghệ, làm thay đổi từng ngày bộ mặt kinh tế - xã hội ở các quốc gia. Tuy nhiên, bên cạnh cơ hội, nó đang tạo ra những thách thức đối với vấn đề giải quyết việc làm và thị trường lao động ở nhiều nước. Việt Nam là một trong những quốc gia sẽ phải đối mặt với những thách thức đó. Lợi thế nguồn nhân lực dồi dào hiện nay rất có thể vô hình trung trở thành lực cản của quá trình phát triển trong tương lai, nếu những hệ lụy và tác động tiêu cực của cuộc Cách mạng công nghiệp lần thứ tư không được chủ động hóa giải. Vì vậy, qua bài viết này, tác giả mong muốn góp thêm nhận thức của bản thân nhằm làm rõ hơn những tác động của cuộc cách mạng này đến vấn đề giải quyết việc làm ở nước ta trong những năm tới. Từ khóa: Cách mạng công nghiệp lần thứ tư, giải quyết việc làm. 1. Introduction The Industrial revolution in previously is a liberated humankind from the field of production made production possible and brought digital capabilities to billions of people. This Fourth Industrial Revolution is fundamental. It characterized by the change in socio-economic, cultural and technical conditions, manual labor is replaced by industrial and large-scale machinery. The impact of the industrial revolution is immense, and it is changing the industry in all countries. These deep and wide changes make up the variability of the entire production, management, and administration systems. 2. The trend of the impact of the revolution on employment issue in the world Professor Klaus Schwab, the founder, and president of the World Economic Forum commented: "These changes will be so profound in history, there is a time when people are at the same time at the same opportunity and risk" [1]. Economists have said the Fourth Industrial Revolution will have a profound effect on all the laws, economy and industry, and at the same time challenging our notion of the true role of the human. New technologies from the Fourth Industrial Revolution have been developed at great speed, with breakthroughs serving human beings that are realized as self-driving vehicles, applications of artificial intelligence. When automation replaces people in the economy as whole workers will be redundant and that will exacerbate the gap between profit versus capital and profit versus labor. Thus, the World Economic Forum has shaken a bell to warn workers and Governments need to prepare for the sudden change of human resources, putting workers face to the risk of losing their jobs. Specifically, a part of the low-skilled workforce (such as the workers in an assembly line), which was influenced by underlying automation during the Third Industrial Revolution, can now be affected more. The birth of "cobots" - a collaborative robotic robot capable of moving and interacting, will help low-skill jobs get higher productivity. However, the most severely affected may be the average skilled workers. Because the development of super automation and super-connectivity, combined with artificial intelligence, will have a significant impact on the nature of knowledge work. Automation will initially affect office work, sales, customer service, and support industries. Autonomous robots, automated reporting, and virtual assistants will become more popular. Journal of Marine Science and Technology No. 56 – November 2018 83 CELEBRATE VIET NAM TEACHERS’ DAY 20/11/2018 Most of the economic sectors will be greatly influenced by this process, even in some formerly conceived sectors, there is no substitute for the direct human role, such as the insurance sector may not need human intervention, most customer queries are answered automatically; the financial sector, "consulting robot" already on the market; the banking sector, according to a new report by Citigroup (American multinational financial company), the human resources tends to shrink when technology is doing what people are doing. About 30% of employees may lose their jobs between 2015 and 2025, mainly due to the process of banking automation. For the judiciary, computers can quickly "read" millions of emails and cut down on survey costs. In the United States, for example, many young lawyers are out of work, because IBM Watson, a supercomputer, has reached a level where customers need legal advice in just a few seconds to get the information they need with accuracy up to 90% (compared with 70% when performed by humans) [2]. So, as robotics and automation thrive, in recent years as well as in predicting the future, millions of people in many countries around the world will fall into unemployment: According to estimation, about 47% of current jobs in the United States will disappear due to automation. According to a recent study by the Bank of England, 15 million jobs in the UK are at risk of disappearing, especially administrative, clerical and manufacturing jobs. The bank also forecasts that 95 million unskilled workers will lose their jobs in the next 10 - 20 years in the United States and the United Kingdom alone, or 50% of the workforce in the two countries [2]. The Asahi Shimbun on 19th May quoted the Ministry of Economy as saying that without reforming the structure of the labor market, by the fiscal year 2030, there would be 7,3 million jobs in the country which robots and artificial intelligence won [2]. The last impressive number predicted by analysts is that technological changes due to the Fourth Industrial Revolution take place in every area of their lives, which results in the following: 70 - 80% of today's jobs will disappear within the next 20 years. However, many new jobs will be created. 3. The challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution to employment issue in Vietnam The Fourth Industrial Revolution has brought many opportunities and challenges, putting in place a daunting task of Vietnam government that is labor market management and direction, create jobs, stabilize society. The expansion of the application of information technology, control, automation, robotics systems with artificial intelligence will replace people in many stages or throughout the entire production line, especially in labor-intensive sectors. This is one of the biggest challenges, as Vietnam's labor restructuring in the past 20 years has been slower and much slower than the shift in GDP. The Vietnam economics is still highly dependent on cheap labors. However, in the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, in the development trend of the knowledge economy, skilled human resources with creative capacity are more advantageous. On the other hand, a very worrying issue in a densely populated country like Vietnam (as report of Mundi index of 2017, Vietnam's population was 96.160.161, ranked 15th among the world's most populous countries)[3], are the widespread inadequacies between the general scale and the structure of labor supply and demand in the labor market. At present, labor supply is surpassing demand and will continue to surpass in the future, which creates a great pressure on the people. As of July 1, 2017, Vietnam has 53.4 million people of working age. Annual labor supply increases from 3.2% to 3.5%, so that each year we will have an additional 1.3 to 1.5 million people to the working age [3]. Modern technologies sparked a new revolution in many industries, such as 3D printing, robotics, and automation, with very few employees. In the future, a large proportion of the labor-intensive sectors in Vietnam may be unemployed, such as agricultural workers, textiles, accounting, assembling and repairing equipment. Looking at a specific industry such as textiles, robots appear to work with humans in factories. According to the ILO, two thirds of the 9.2 million workers in the textile and footwear sector in South East Asia are threatened; 86% of Vietnam's labor, 88% of Cambodian labor and 64% of Indonesia labor in garment and footwear industries will be hit hard by the wave of automation and industrialization in the industry. With the cutting and sewing process, the machine can replace the human. Technology 4.0 can work 24/24 hours without charging, even in "dark" conditions without light, while still controlling speed and quality. Therefore, with Vietnam highly alarmed, because the processing and assembly labor is mainly used. A University of Oxford study estimates that up to 47% of jobs today will have a 75% automatic rate over the next 20 years, mostly middle-income jobs and regular offices [4]. It does not require a technical level. Meanwhile, according to a report on labor and employment of the General Statistics 84 Journal of Marine Science and Technology No. 56 – November 2018 CELEBRATE VIET NAM TEACHERS’ DAY 20/11/2018 Office, over 90% of Vietnamese workers in the manufacturing and processing industries are simple workers with low labor skills [3]. With around 60% of the population in working age, Vietnam is in the golden population structure of at least 20 years. However, due to the shortage of skilled labor force and skilled technical workers make the index of human resources in Vietnam only reached 3,39/10 points and capacity Vietnam's economic competitiveness ranked 55/137 countries [3]. In addition, poor manpower is also an obstacle to enhancing the capacity to acquire, master, and effectively apply new technologies at the enterprise, sector and even economy levels. The technology development of our country is low compared to many countries. It also means that the advantage of cheap labor at the present time will become a great disadvantage for the country's industrial development in the new stage, for the integration and reception of the era. At the same time, it puts a heavy burden on the national economy to create jobs for a large number of low-level workers. Meanwhile, Vietnam is still developing, trying to escape the middle-income trap so there are not many resources to deal with as developed countries. So, at present, our country is not really prepared for the good conditions to welcome the wave of transformation that this revolution will bring. But in the future, profound changes in the social structure will be inevitable. Without today's targeted actions for a short-term change and building a skilled workforce, our country will have to face to the increasing unemployment which results in the loss of social equality and unrest. However, there are other opinions that on a global scale, the impact of technology on employment is not as serious as the warning. As in previous revolutions, there are always jobs lost, but the number of new jobs, new occupations created more than that. According to a study by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), only 9% of jobs in OECD countries can be automated, 30% of jobs require new skills [4-7]. In the immediate future, unemployment may increase to some extent as some simple manufacturing sectors (e.g. assembly machinery, textiles etc.) may no longer exist, but in terms of overall and long-term, it is possible in large-scale unemployment. The risk of losing a job due to technological progress is limited because the application of new technology is a process that involves both legal and social obstacles; Employees themselves are able to adjust when technology changes; New technology will create new jobs, even though old jobs can be lost. According to the trend, it brings the positive signals to Vietnam economics. According to the statistic of wearesocial.net, there are about 55% of Vietnam's population using mobile phones, and 52% of the population use the Internet. Vietnam ranks fourth in the world for Internet usage with 5.2 hours per day and ranked 22nd in the world by population in terms of social network usage[8]. It is forecasted that by 2020, there will be about 1 million labors working in the field of information technology. These are the cornerstones and advantages that many high-tech corporations such as Fujitsu, Intel, Samsung, Siemens, Acatel... are taking advantage of to expand their investment in Vietnam. This is also a new employment opportunity for employees but mainly for high-quality human resources. Only in the first 10 months of 2017, Vietnam has 105,125 newly established enterprises. It reported that on the average there are 14 new companies go into the business in one hour [3]. Vietnam aims to have more than 1 million enterprises by 2020, and supporting around 600 businesses with about 2,000 projects in the field of start-up to promote to access to new technologies [3]. At the same time, the negotiation or signing of new free trade agreements hopes to bring new employment opportunities. However, an overview of Vietnam's economy at present and in many years still relies on labor-intensive, low-level and low labor productivity. Vietnam is aiming to become the world's processing and manufacturing center by 2035. Assume that if it is achieved, it will create many jobs for employees. But the question now is whether the goals and benefits we expect are truly achieved when the Fourth Industrial Revolution is predicted to bring great turning points in the next 5-7 years? 4. Conclusion Mankind is step by step into the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The development of the fields, that had not previously had in Vietnam, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, robotics, nanotechnology, three-dimensional printing, gene technology, and biometric technology, have changed the face of the world each day. Intelligent systems such as housing, factories, farms, power plans or cities will help solve problems from supply chain management to climate change. Nevertheless, the technological revolution has greatly influenced economic, social, political, and geographic development, interacting in multiple dimensions, and enhancing one another. In Journal of Marine Science and Technology No. 56 – November 2018 85 CELEBRATE VIET NAM TEACHERS’ DAY 20/11/2018 addition, the Fourth Industrial Revolution also poses many challenges to the economy and society, including employment and the labor market. For Vietnam, the 4th Industrial Revolution offers a great opportunity that we must quickly catch up, actively prepare all the necessary conditions to go straight into new areas, take advantage of the advanced science - technology. On the other hand, this revolution will also have a big impact on both the positive and negative to the labor market and job creation in Vietnam. The unemployment rate may increase; labor structure by economic sector will have a clear shift. This is a necessary consequence as well as signals for the necessary and urgent adjustment of the direction and policy in solving this problem. If Vietnam actively responds in time, solving this difficult problem, we will surely complete the process of industrialization and modernization of the country and quickly narrow the development gap with advanced countries in the world. REFERENCES [1] Schwab, K., The fourth industrial revolution. First U.S. edition. ed. viii, 184 pages. [2] Rajnai, Z. and I. Kocsis. Labor market risks of industry 4.0, digitization, robots and AI. in 2017 IEEE 15th International Symposium on Intelligent Systems and Informatics (SISY), 2017. [3] General statistics office of Vietnam 2017. http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=774 [4] Frey, C.B. and M.A. Osborne, The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017. 114: p. 254-280. [5] Arntz, M.T.G. and U. Zierahn, The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries. [6] Doucet, A., et al., Teaching in the fourth industrial revolution: standing at the precipice. pages cm. [7] Smith, P.A.C. and J. Pourdehnad, Organizational leadership for the fourth industrial revolution: emerging research and opportunities. pages cm. [8] Digital in 2017 South East Asia - we are social and hoot suite 2017. https://wearesocial.com/special-reports/digital-in-2017-global-overview. Received: Revised: Accepted: 86 10 January 2018 14 March 2018 04 Apirl 2018 Journal of Marine Science and Technology No. 56 – November 2018