Nội dung

Workshop report Real Estate Investment Management 2020 and Beyond Workshop Report ORGANISED BY THOMSON REUTERS AND OUTSIGHTS 18 JUNE 2009 THOMSON REUTERS BUILDING, CANARY WHARF, LONDON IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: The purpose of this document is to summarize the discussions held at the workshop. The workshop was conducted under the rules whereby no specific comments should be attributed to any individual participants or their organizations. Views expressed by participants were in the context of a creative process to consider future possibilities, and nothing in this document should be taken to represent the views or opinions of any of Thomson Reuters, Outsights, workshop participants or their firms. For any queries about this report, please contact robert.ciemniak@thomsonreuters.com or jan.skopecek@thomsonreuters.com. For enquiries about using scenarios and futures thinking: stephen@outsights.co.uk For real estate news, interviews, data, analyses, research and more, visit ReutersRealEstate.com or email us at property@thomsonreuters.com. © Thomson Reuters, Outsights, 2009 1 Workshop report Executive summary What is the future of real estate investment management business? In the long-term, the value of commercial real estate should be tied to the underlying demand, which, in turn, will ultimately be driven by a combination of economic, environmental, sociodemographic, technological and regulatory forces. 20 senior real estate executives and representatives of academia joined forces at the ‘REIM 2020 and Beyond’ Workshop organized by Thomson Reuters and Outsights to explore what these long-term trends are how they may affect the underlying demand for real estate and through that what implications we may derive for the global commercial real estate investment markets and businesses Stretching the imagination - Scenarios developed in the workshop were very broadly defined and some perceived as unrealistic but they forced to stretch the imagination as summed up in one observation at the workshop “The scary thing is that our current business plans rely on one scenario of the future – the ‘Global Utopia’ world of increasing globalization and uninterrupted economic growth with all current problems resolved in the future.” Not many investors and planners seem to be taking into account the possibility of significantly different futures. The mega forces – The theme of globalization vs localization was ranked as the one with most impact and uncertainty for real estate. There is further general consensus about some of the trends shaping our future, most notably the demographic shifts and ageing. As an industry, we also seem to agree there will be an inevitable split between 'property as a financial asset' and 'property as a built structure'. Investment management business was seen as surviving in all scenarios but no scenario suggests a return to the ‘go go’ years of fantastic returns across the globe and sectors. The green agenda, or rather its role as either a driver or an ‘also-aspect’ of the future of real estate, sparked a lively debate. Mobility and urban trends in the future are a bit of an unknown due to two major uncertainties – cost of travel and new technology. Hotly debated issue of diversification, argued to be only a result of imperfect market information which may disappear with improved information flows, new financial instruments, and higher correlation of economic cycles around the world, was another contentious issue raised. Future of professions - Scenarios suggested various professions could disappear or fundamentally change, e.g. technology threatens the role of agents and even investment managers as intermediaries, under some scenarios. Similarly, surveying as a profession faces fundamental challenges in an increasingly complex world of investment management. Polarizations - Elimination of the ‘middle ground’ in many aspects of real estate seemed to emerge as a theme across the discussions – for example, polarity of finance real estate vs brick and mortar real estate, specialist niche funds vs global universal brands. On the other hand, we have seen a contrary force to e.g. expand the role of surveying into a more multi-disciplinary profession. Next steps – We hope this paper provides food for thought on high-level strategic issues for the real estate investment management business. It can also help set the agenda for in-depth discussions at various conferences. You may want to look at the scenarios and ask yourself the questions for your own organization: how robust would my current strategy be under different scenarios? Are we ‘betting the house’ on an official view of the future? 2 Workshop report 1. Opening questions – what would we want to know about the future? To open the workshop, participants were asked for their quick-fire thoughts on what they wanted to know about the future, thereby shedding some light on important issues on their minds and industry uncertainties. Several themes emerged: Current market conditions and the outcome of the current crisis / recession Is the cyclicality of real estate and financial markets inherent, given the market mechanics of supply and demand drivers, and thus unavoidable, or has this experience changed our understanding of the cycles so that they can be avoided in the future? Assuming the cyclicality is inherent, what is the timing of next crash – 10-15 years? Is the next banking crisis inevitable? When is it going to come? What kind of world will we be doing business in? Politically Which nations will be leading powers in the future, and assuming we will see a shift of geopolitical and economic power from west to east, how will the rest of the world cope with the dominance of China and India? What will be the impact of the current crisis on Europe and London as financial hubs? What will be the relationship between public and private sectors, will the government continue on the path of greater state ownership and market regulation, or will it reverse the trend? How will international and inter-cultural relationships evolve? Will the borders continue being open, and cooperation between nations continue, with melting trade barriers? Or, will we see a world of fiercely competing closed nation-states? Or perhaps the collaboration will be fostered in only a few closed trading blocks / regions, such as the EU, leaving the developing world behind and closed off? Will the cities rise in importance as centres of power, replacing countries as dominant international players? What will happen to tension areas? Will there be peace in Middle East? Socio-ecologically What are going to be real effects of global warming and climate change? Will they be as pronounced as feared? Will technology progress enable us to slow climate change? Is human, social behavior and thinking changing irreversibly in reaction to climate change? How far are humankind and individuals willing to go in adjusting our behavior? Are we becoming more ‘responsible’ or do we even have sufficient ‘emotional intelligence’ to save our climate and planet from destruction? How we do business in such a world What is the future of corporate responsibility? Will the green agenda and social responsibility of corporations fall victim to the bottom line? If not, will companies pay attention to these issues as a result of government push or customer pull? Are real estate markets evolving towards greater transparency by nature of structural development in the industry? Will real estate agents remain in the market as intermediaries or will they become redundant as a result of either technological change or change in ownership structure? 3 Workshop report 2. Contentions about the future In addition to these big, open-ended questions and uncertainties, the workshop sought to consider whether there are some contentions within the industry about its future. To stir the debate, some possible contentions were presented and the level of agreement debated. Six specific contentions about the future were put forward, and the audience was asked to express its agreement or disagreement by voting on a scale from 1 (Very strongly disagree) to 9 (Very strongly agree). 1. DIVERSIFICATION A myth that will fade Much of the case made for property investment in general, and international property investment in particular, is based on the notion of diversification.  However, the benefits of diversification are a 'myth' created by poor market information.  They are also destined to fade (a) as new propertyrelated investment instruments provide better information for the accurate real time pricing of the effect of real and monetary economic events on underlying properties in domestic markets; and (b) as global economic cycles become more correlated. Voting result: Mean 4.1 (Somewhat disagree) with large spread 2. PROPERTY AT THE  The built environment will be thrust to the very forefront of FOREFRONT OF THE the battle against climate change, with substantial market BATTLE WITH effects at regional, urban and at individual building level. CLIMATE CHANGE  Voting result: Mean 6.3 (Somewhat agree/Agree) 3. REAL PROPERTY  Chartered surveying as a profession is doomed. VS FINANCIAL ASSET  There will be an inevitable split between 'property as a financial asset' and 'property as a built structure'.  It is a patent nonsense for anyone to be expected to know everything from dry rot to swaptions. Voting result: Mean 6.7 (Agree) 4. DECREASED  Urban form will be affected by a general decrease in the MOBILITY AND level of personal movement. PROPERTY  Travel will cost more as fuel costs rise above the rate of inflation, whilst technological advances will obviate the need to travel so much.  The social aspects of work will still need to be accommodated. This will lead to more, localised, work hubs. Voting result: Mean 4.7 (Don’t know), large spread of responses 5. PROPERTY AND  As governments prove less able to provide the INFRASTRUCTURE infrastructure society needs, private investment will need MARKETS TO MERGE to step in.  As such, the property and infrastructure markets will merge over time. Voting result: Mean 6 (Somewhat Agree) 6. IT’S ABOUT AGING  Aging demographic profile will materially impact the needs for commercial property worldwide. Voting result: Mean 7 (Agree), strong consensus Most clear-cut agreement was on the issue of ageing and the fact that ageing demographic profiles will materially impact the needs for commercial property worldwide. As an industry, we also seem to agree there will be an inevitable split between 'property as a financial asset' and 'property as a built structure'. The implication of that may be a higher level of specialisation among people serving the industry, where ‘system thinkers’ and experts on built environment on one hand, and specialists on financial aspects of real estate 4 Workshop report ownership and transactions on the other, may replace generalist chartered surveyors. This point though, understandably, is very contentious, perhaps due to the vested interests of many market participants. Arguments range from the key role of surveying by maintaining market standards, providing an independent source of valuations and acting as de facto ‘regulation’ in the market, which is in even more demand after the recent crisis to suggestions over too many surveyors, and mere impossibility for one person to ‘understand everything from dry rot to swaptions’. It also seems to be generally believed that over time the property and infrastructure markets will merge, especially as governments may prove less able to provide the infrastructure society needs, private investment will need to step in. Other selected topics provoke a lot more disagreement. The green agenda is clearly at the forefront of the industry’s interest and it is clear real estate will become an important, if not the key ‘battleground’, for green issues. However, it seems that at the moment real estate lags behind other industries in promoting greenness, and it is much less clear whether it is being pushed into adoption of environmentally friendly measures by government regulation or pulled by customers. Over time perhaps a real price premium may appear as tenants prefer green buildings but for the time being environmental measures are more of a victim to focus on profit making. Mobility and urban trends in the future are a bit of an unknown due to two major uncertainties – cost of travel and new technology. At one extreme, high fuel prices and the additional choices that technology provides as to the physical location of where people work may lead to decreased mobility. At the other extreme, government support for greater mobility and the social aspects of working and shopping may lead to a continuation of the current demographic trends of higher density of population and higher mobility. In either scenario, the old proxy of access = proximity does not apply any longer, the increase in demand for mobility of goods will continue, with predictable requirements on real estate and in current need of adjusting real estate valuations for these trends. Technology has given consumers choice about where to shop (on-line vs. brick shops), but the shops are still valued. From the investment perspective, diversification is another contentious issue, argued to be only a result of imperfect market information and that may disappear with improved information flows, new financial instruments, and higher correlation of economic cycles around the world. The current global recession seems to be proving the skeptics right. 5 Workshop report 3. Break-out discussion – What will be different in future? To examine some of these specific contentions and the future of the Real Estate Investment Management industry at large we took a step back to identify the major drivers of change in economy, society, government, politics etc., and the way they may shape the future in to the next 10 – 20 years. Outsights presented material from their futures knowledge base, 21 st TM Drivers of the 21 Century to stimulate the discussion. From the discussions in the breakout groups several themes emerged, with varying perceptions of the magnitude of their impact on the future and of their uncertainty. This is displayed in the summary chart below, where the horizontal axis represents uncertainty and the vertical axis represents the impact of each driver, as perceived by the real estate investment management industry represented in our workshop. 9 8 6. Resource availability and use 7 Impact 1. Globalization vs / plus localization 2. Dominance of the West – rise of the East 6 4. Quality and use of information 5 3. Governance / regulation, responsibility7. How people react, e.g. militant? 8. Safety, security, crime, terrorism 5. Private / public sector relationships 4 3 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 Uncertainty Unsurprisingly, globalisation seems to be clearly one of the most impactful trends in the world looking forward. However, there remains a large degree of uncertainty about the degree and direction it is likely to take. It is often spoken of the globalisation with localisation twist, where centralising structures, infrastructural, commercial, political and economic, are often complemented or conflicting with increased localisation of power and decision making (example of California and its breakdown of some forms of government). In terms of consumer behavior, we also see re-engagement with the vernacular, demand for locally differentiated and highly customised products and services, leading to mass-production of the tailor-made. Corporations and investors need to face the uncertainty of the fate of national borders, and the possible backlash of protectionism, and are increasingly required to collaborate with rivals. A related theme with clearly high impact and comparatively low uncertainty is the end of Western dominance and the rise of the East, with Asia, specifically China and India, taking a much larger share of global economic and political influence, and more importantly also of the capital flow. In this respect many interesting questions arise around how will the world look, where the major investors and financiers are based (Shanghai or Mumbai?), or where the US$ is no longer the world’s major reserve currency. As a result of the current financial crisis and the active role government had to play in response to it, the issues of governance, regulation, and responsibility emerge as important, with the expectation of increased regulation of markets, organisations not being allowed to grow as big, and regulation of real estate investment. In politics, the rise of cities, the emergence of interest-based politics rather than class-based, and the apportioning of 6 Workshop report responsibility to specific bodies may have considerable impact on how investors operate and real estate is regulated and managed. For the same reason, in general the relationships between public and private sectors are seen as highly uncertain. Quality and use of information issues, with the current glut of easily available information, often of questionable reliability, commoditisation of information and education, leading to loss of certainty about the truth is not seen by the real estate industry as a very impactful or uncertain trend, perhaps partially because the real estate industry is starting from a point of comparatively low transparency already. Rather than being a concern, this may mean even stronger reliance on specialists and established brands, playing into the hands of those currently at the top of the industry. There seems to be little doubt that resource availability and use will be key factors in the economy in general and real estate. Scarcity of energy, raw materials and even food and water, along with complexities of waste management may lead to innovative measures, such as recycling old buildings, recycling materials, or in more extreme cases rationing of basic supplies, communal ownership of some resources, or even potential conflicts over resources. The reactions of people, interest and social groups to the above themes, and others, such as loss of privacy, cultural differences, etc., is the single most uncertain factor, as seen by the industry. What is the likelihood of rebellions, militant behavior, and conflicts? Similarly, the issues of safety, security, crime, terrorism deserve attention, if not as much as some of the previously mentioned themes. In addition to the above social and economic trends, the values, attitudes and circumstances of investors themselves are likely to change in future. Debt and financial markets are likely to undergo adjustments that should better reflect the role of human nature in the functioning of these markets. We are likely to see some technical adjustment in accounting standards (true cost accounting) with impact on valuations and investment processes. Recent experience will also likely change the perception of risk, with implications on not only financial products, and the way investments are selected and viewed (role of real estate as investment vehicle), but also the roles and attitudes of the investors and their mandates – for example, will cross-border investors need to reflect more political and social responsibility factors in their investment process? 7 Workshop report 4. Development of scenarios To further stretch and articulate views of the future, we applied a simplified scenario methodology, using a matrix showing the extremes of two key drivers that were seen as impactful and uncertain. One driver that stands out in the discussion and has implications for nearly all other global developments is the theme of globalisation vs. localisation. The current financial crisis, changes in regulation, role of government in the markets, changing political and economic structures of decision-making pose serious question marks about the continuation and possible forms of globalisation. There were several contenders for the second axis: low risk vs. high risk controlled vs. free regulated vs. unregulated centralised vs. fragmented structured vs. unstructured secure vs. insecure To capture many of these aspects, we decided to use a more generalised dimension of predictability vs. unpredictability of behavior, social, political and economic structures, decision-making and other uncertainties. Putting these two drivers together and juxtaposing them produces four possible distinct scenarios of the future – in four distinct quadrants. This is a simplified view intended as a ‘forcing mechanism’ to inspire a subsequent development of scenarios by different groups of participants at the workshop. They would later incorporate other dimensions as well as factors considered relatively more certain (such as near-term demographics). The main features of the four resulting scenarios are summarized below. Global The Corporate World Global utopia •Geography-less, border-less world •Corporations control resources •Resource scarcity •Security under threat •Owner-occupier model •BRICs, MENA on the rise •Global backlash against governments •Resource challenge overcome •EU on the rise •New G3 / G5 – CN, IN, BR + US, EU •Free flow of information •Local rules guided from top •Single currency Unpredictable Predictable Survivors Return to Merry Albion •National, sub-national communities •Localised patchwork of regimes •Economic protectionism •Cultural protectionism •Local currencies and financial structures •Conflict, largely resource focused •Lack of information •City state, PLC •Market stability •Regional NOT national •Specialisation •Energy “self” sufficiency •Strong public/private links Local 8 Workshop report 5. Four Scenarios 5.1 Scenario 1 - Global Utopia Global The Corporate World Global utopia •Geography-less, border-less world •Corporations control resources •Resource scarcity •Security under threat •Owner-occupier model •BRICs, MENA on the rise •Global backlash against governments •Resource challenge overcome •EU on the rise •New G3 / G5 – CN, IN, BR + US, EU •Free flow of information •Local rules guided from top •Single currency Unpredictable Predictable Survivors Return to Merry Albion •National, sub-national communities •Localised patchwork of regimes •Economic protectionism •Cultural protectionism •Local currencies and financial structures •Conflict, largely resource focused •Lack of information •City state, PLC •Market stability •Regional NOT national •Specialisation •Energy “self” sufficiency •Strong public/private links Local 5.1.1 Scenario description ‘Global Utopia’ is a world in which technology has enabled resource challenges to be overcome. New sources of oil have been identified, but renewable energy now dominates. Technology, specifically biotechnology, has also been brought to bear on the ageing process, with people living much longer and much more healthy lives. With some of the world’s biggest tensions dissipated, we have moved into an era of much greater tolerance. Common ground has been found with previously fragmented interest groups, and people are willing to put their faith into multi-national governance structures – the world is governed by a new G3: China, India and Brazil, with still influential roles for the US and an expanding EU. This has enabled a strong global regulatory framework for the market economy. There is top-down governance, a single world currency and information flows freely – it has become a commodity. This point was underlined in 2030, when a meeting of the G3 concluded it had nothing to discuss! Stability is undoubted in ‘Global Utopia’. Population growth is 0% in the developed world and 2% in the developing world. The world no longer worries about, or even takes an interest in, oil prices – they were yesterday’s news. 5.1.2 Implications for real estate investment management business The industry can invest internationally with confidence. There are low barriers, high transparency and no competition between jurisdictions. However, the free flow of information has made it harder to generate an alpha; trackers are very much in vogue, fees have fallen dramatically and there is industry consolidation. Securitisation returns and becomes a standard. In the developed world, industry bodies have greater authority and standing, new supply is strictly controlled, there is less speculative development and investment maintenance is the 9 Workshop report main game in town. There is also more synthetic investment, as assets have become expensive to own. Individuals become more powerful, but the regulators are careful to ensure that individual owners do not go bust. The source of opportunity has shifted, towards the developing world, logistics, health and catering to (extended) life cycle needs, geographically the arctic rim is the new development frontier. The chartered surveyor does not survive – there is not much demand for their services – but the same applies to other professions: accountants and lawyers. Property law is much simpler, commoditised and easy to understand. Overall, the market has moved away from the survival of the fittest. There is personal responsibility, but within a very strong regulatory framework to mitigate, even avoid, risks to society. As one participant observed, the “scary thing is that our current business plans rely on this future” –current problems are always assumed to be solved in the future. 5.2. Scenario 2 - Return to Merry Albion Global The Corporate World Global utopia •Geography-less, border-less world •Corporations control resources •Resource scarcity •Security under threat •Owner-occupier model •BRICs, MENA on the rise •Global backlash against governments •Resource challenge overcome •EU on the rise •New G3 / G5 – CN, IN, BR + US, EU •Free flow of information •Local rules guided from top •Single currency Unpredictable Predictable Survivors Return to Merry Albion •National, sub-national communities •Localised patchwork of regimes •Economic protectionism •Cultural protectionism •Local currencies and financial structures •Conflict, largely resource focused •Lack of information •City state, PLC •Market stability •Regional NOT national •Specialisation •Energy “self” sufficiency •Strong public/private links Local 5.2.1 Scenario description The markets of ‘Merry Albion’ are also very stable, but much more localised. After several centuries, power has returned to City States, with companies also very influential at a local level – the private and public sectors work very well together, but companies need local presence to be effective. Governance does not extend beyond the regional blocs, and people’s direct participation in the governance process ensures that local politicians and interest groups hold sway and are highly effective. City States have found ways of working with each other, through specialisation and trade agreements, although technology and green policies have enabled them to retain control of and be self sufficient in energy. The principle of subsidiarity rules. The emergence of this world was signaled by a shift to more localised elections, quickly followed by much greater tax raising powers at the local level 10