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7977_C000.fm Page i Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Radiation Risks in Perspective © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page iii Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Radiation Risks in Perspective Kenneth L. Mossman Boca Raton London New York CRC is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page iv Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-8493-7977-6 (Hardcover) International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-8493-7977-2 (Hardcover) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use. No part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www. copyright.com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC) 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mossman, Kenneth L., 1946Radiation risks in perspective / by Kenneth L. Mossman. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. ). ISBN 0-8493-7977-6 (alk. paper) 1. Radiation carcinogenesis. 2. Health risk assessment. I. Title. RC268.55.M673 2006 616.99’4071--dc22 Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2006047553 7977_C000.fm Page v Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Dedication To my wife, Blaire — Who has always been there for me and supported me in ways that cannot be expressed in words To my parents, Meyer David Mossman (1915–1995) and Sarah Kutchai Mossman (1920–2005) — May your memory be for a blessing © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page vii Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Table of Contents Author ......................................................................................................................xi Acknowledgments .................................................................................................xiii Introduction ............................................................................................................xv Abbreviations .......................................................................................................xxv List of Figures ....................................................................................................xxvii List of Tables .......................................................................................................xxix Chapter 1 Risky Business .....................................................................................1 More than a Number .................................................................................................3 Safety without Risk? .................................................................................................6 What’s Risky?............................................................................................................7 Is It Dangerous?.........................................................................................................9 Can I Get Exposed?.................................................................................................13 Can It Hurt Me? ......................................................................................................15 What Are the Risks?................................................................................................16 Damage Control.......................................................................................................17 Perception Is Reality ...............................................................................................19 Notes and References ..............................................................................................21 Chapter 2 Scientific Guesswork..........................................................................25 Making the Right Choice ........................................................................................26 Predictive Theories in Risk Assessment .................................................................30 Linear No-Threshold Theory.......................................................................30 Sublinear Nonthreshold ...............................................................................31 Supralinear ...................................................................................................32 Hormesis ......................................................................................................32 Threshold .....................................................................................................34 Limitations and Uncertainties .................................................................................36 Speculation versus Reality ......................................................................................38 Risk Management and Risk Communication .........................................................39 Quantifying Risk at Small Doses............................................................................41 Notes and References ..............................................................................................42 © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page viii Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Chapter 3 No Safe Dose ....................................................................................47 LNT: The Theory of Choice....................................................................................48 The LNT Controversy .............................................................................................53 Elements of the Debate ...............................................................................54 The Question of Thresholds ........................................................................54 Repair of Radiation Damage and Cellular Autonomy................................54 Uses and Misuses of LNT.......................................................................................55 Case 1: Estimation of Health Effects of Fallout from the Chernobyl Reactor Accident .................................................................56 Case 2: Childhood Cancer Following Diagnostic X-Ray...........................56 Case 3: Public Health Impacts from Radiation in a Modern Pit Facility....................................................................................................58 LNT Consequences..................................................................................................58 Notes and References ..............................................................................................60 Chapter 4 Uncertain Risk....................................................................................65 How Low Can You Go? ..........................................................................................66 Risk Assessment Considering Uncertainty .............................................................70 Uncertain Choices....................................................................................................72 Another Approach....................................................................................................74 Notes and References ..............................................................................................75 Chapter 5 Zero or Bust .......................................................................................79 Management Triggers ..............................................................................................81 Technical Triggers .......................................................................................82 Size Matters........................................................................................83 Sensitive People .................................................................................84 Assigned Blame .................................................................................86 Social Triggers .............................................................................................87 Safety..................................................................................................88 Protection of Children and the Unborn .............................................89 Polluters Should Pay ..........................................................................90 Catastrophe and Apathy .....................................................................90 Public Information and Distorting Risks...........................................90 Political Triggers ................................................................................91 Perceptions and Conflicts of Interest.................................................92 Management Strategies............................................................................................94 As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) ..........................................94 Best Available Technology (BAT)...............................................................95 The Precautionary Principle ........................................................................95 Risk–Risk Trade-offs and Unintended Consequences ............................................99 © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page ix Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Risk Offset .................................................................................................100 Risk Substitution........................................................................................100 Risk Transfer and Risk Transformation ....................................................101 Challenges..............................................................................................................101 Notes and References ............................................................................................103 Chapter 6 Misplaced Priorities .........................................................................109 Priorities and Realities...........................................................................................110 Factors in Prioritization .........................................................................................112 Scientific Evidence ....................................................................................113 Public Perception of Risks ........................................................................114 Management Capacity ...............................................................................117 Court Actions .............................................................................................118 Influence of Stakeholder Groups...............................................................119 Real Risks and Reordering Priorities....................................................................121 Monetary Costs......................................................................................................123 Environmental Cleanup at the Nevada Test Site....................................... 124 Characterization of Waste Destined for WIPP..........................................125 Risks in Perspective...............................................................................................125 Notes and References ............................................................................................126 Chapter 7 Avoiding Risk...................................................................................129 The Case against Risk ...........................................................................................130 Different Risks...........................................................................................130 Agent–Agent Interactions..........................................................................131 Dose as a Surrogate for Risk ....................................................................132 The Case for Dose.................................................................................................133 A Dose-Based System of Protection.....................................................................136 Regulatory Dose Limit ..............................................................................136 Natural Background...................................................................................137 Acceptable Dose ........................................................................................139 Management Decisions Based on Dose Proportion .............................................140 Simplification of Radiation Quantities and Units.................................................142 Review of the Current System of Radiation Protection .......................................144 Notes and References ............................................................................................145 Chapter 8 Radiation from the Gods .................................................................149 The Watras Case ....................................................................................................150 Human Exposure to Radon ...................................................................................152 Health Hazards of Radon ......................................................................................153 © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page x Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Is There Really a Public Health Hazard? .............................................................156 Public Health .............................................................................................156 Perceptions and Fears ................................................................................158 Economic Impacts .....................................................................................160 National/Regional Differences ..................................................................162 Smoking Is the Problem ........................................................................................163 Notes and References ............................................................................................164 Chapter 9 Hold the Phone.................................................................................167 Will Cell Phones “Fry” Your Brain?.....................................................................168 Managing Phantom Risks......................................................................................172 Imprudent Precaution ............................................................................................173 International Calls..................................................................................................177 Notes and References ............................................................................................179 Chapter 10 PR Campaign: Proportion, Prioritization, and Precaution ............183 Proportion ..............................................................................................................184 Prioritization ..........................................................................................................187 Precaution ..............................................................................................................189 Notes and References ............................................................................................191 Glossary ................................................................................................................193 © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page xi Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Author Kenneth L. Mossman is a professor of health physics in the School of Life Sciences and affiliated faculty member of the Center for the Study of Law, Science and Technology at Arizona State University in Tempe, where he has also served as assistant vice president for research and director of the university’s Office of Radiation Safety. Prior to his arrival at Arizona State University, Dr. Mossman was a faculty member of the medical and dental schools at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, and was professor and founding chairman of the Department of Radiation Science at Georgetown’s Graduate School. His research interests include radiological health and safety and public policy. Dr. Mossman has authored more than 150 publications related to radiation health issues. He served as president of the Health Physics Society and received its prestigious Elda Anderson Award, the Marie Curie Gold Medal, and the Founder’s Award. He has been a Sigma Xi distinguished lecturer and is a fellow of the Health Physics Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He has served on committees of the National Research Council, the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris), and the International Atomic Energy Agency (Vienna). Dr. Mossman earned a BS in biology from Wayne State University, MS and PhD degrees in radiation biology from the University of Tennessee, and an MEd degree in higher education administration from the University of Maryland. Dr. Mossman is also author of The Radiobiological Basis of Radiation Protection Practice (1992) Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, with William Mills and Arbitrary and Capricious (2004) AEI Press, Washington, DC with Gary Marchant. © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7977_C000.fm Page xiii Friday, September 15, 2006 11:51 AM Acknowledgments Many people contributed to this book by stimulating ideas or helping to clarify my own thinking. Ideas are never created in a vacuum but, instead, are products of work that went on before. Creative ideas come from unique configurations and insights into past ideas and observations in the context of current times. A good idea now may not necessarily be a good idea in the future or a good idea for the past. I have relied heavily on the work of others in developing the themes and ideas for this book. The detailed references and notes at the end of each chapter reflect this. I am particularly grateful to the following colleagues and former students who provided stimulating discussions and sharpened my thinking about science, policy, law, radiation protection, and radiobiology: Allen Brodsky, Antone Brooks, Bernard Cohen, Keith Dinger, John Frazier, Raymond Guilmette, C. Rick Jones, Cynthia G. Jones, Edward Lazo, Sigurdur Magnusson, Gary Marchant, Henri Metivier, Kenneth Miller, William Mills, Alan Pasternak, Otto Raabe, Keith Schiager, Chauncey Starr, Richard Vetter, and Chris Whipple. I am particularly indebted to Michael Ryan and Tim Jorgensen, who critically reviewed an early draft of the manuscript and provided excellent suggestions. Their efforts improved the work immeasurably. I take full responsibility for statements made in this book. I took great care to properly credit and accurately reflect the views and findings of others. Any errors, omissions, or misrepresentations are my fault and entirely unintentional. I am grateful to the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation for their generous fellowship to support background research and early writing of this book. I thank my editor, Cindy Carelli, and project coordinator, Jill Jurgensen at Taylor & Francis, for their support of the book; for their assistance in the final editing stages of the manuscript; and for ably orchestrating book production. I am particularly grateful to Cindy for believing in this book and shepherding my proposal through the review process. Finally, I thank my wife Blaire, who has been a pillar of strength throughout the manuscript-writing process. She served as a sounding board for many ideas, and her perspectives were extremely valuable to me in writing several chapters. As a professional editor, Blaire’s expertise was invaluable in organizing the book. Blaire read the entire manuscript and her technical editing skills clarified and markedly improved my writing. © 2007 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC