Project Analysis Under Risk.ppt (Project Analysis Under Risk)

Ch 7: Project Analysis Under Risk Incorporating Risk Into Project Analysis Through Adjustments To The Discount Rate, and By The Certainty Equivalent Factor. 1 Introduction: What is Risk?  Risk is the variation of future expectations around an expected value.  Risk is measured as the range of variation around an expected value.  Risk and uncertainty are interchangeable words. 2 Where Does Risk Occur?  In project analysis, risk is the variation in predicted future cash flows. Forecast Estimates of Varying Cash Flows End of Year 0 End of Year 1 -$1,257 -$760 -$235 $127 $489 $945 End of Year 2 ? ? ? ? ? -$876 -$231 $186 $875 $984 End of Year 3 ? ? ? ? ? -$546 -$231 $190 $327 $454 ? ? ? ? ? 3 Handling Risk There are several approaches to handling risk:  In this chapter, risk is accounted for by (1) applying a discount rate commensurate with the riskiness of the cash flows, and (2), by using a certainty equivalent factor  In chapter 8, risk is accounted for by evaluating the project using sensitivity and breakeven analysis.  In chapter 9, risk is accounted for by evaluating the project under simulated cash flow and discount rate scenarios. 4 Using a Risky Discount Rate  The structure of the cash flow discounting mechanism for risk is:-  The $ amount used for a ‘risky cash flow’ is the expected dollar value for that time period.  A ‘risky rate’ is a discount rate calculated to include a risk premium. This rate is known as the RADR, the Risk Adjusted Discount Rate. 5 Defining a Risky Discount Rate  Conceptually, a risky discount rate, k, has three components:1. A risk-free rate (r), to account for the time value of money 2. An average risk premium (u), to account for the firm’s business risk 3. An additional risk factor (a) , with a positive, zero, or negative value, to account for the risk differential between the project’s risk and the firms’ business risk. 6 Calculating a Risky Discount Rate A risky discount rate is conceptually defined as: k=r+u+a Unfortunately, k, is not easy to estimate. Two approaches to this problem are: 1. Use the firm’s overall Weighted Average Cost of Capital, after tax, as k . The WACC is the overall rate of return required to satisfy all suppliers of capital. 2. A rate estimating (r + u) is obtained from the Capital Asset Pricing Model, and then a is added. 7 Calculating the WACC Assume a firm has a capital structure of: 50% common stock, 10% preferred stock, 40% long term debt. Rates of return required by the holders of each are : common, 10%; preferred, 8%; pre-tax debt, 7%. The firm’s income tax rate is 30%. WACC = (0.5 x 0.10) + (0.10 x 0.08) + (0.40 x (0.07x (1-0.30))) = 7.76% pa, after tax. 8 The Capital Asset Pricing Model  This model establishes the covariance between market returns and returns on a single security.  The covariance measure can be used to establish the risky rate of return, r, for a particular security, given expected market returns and the expected risk free rate. 9 Calculating r from the CAPM  The equation to calculate r, for a security with a calculated Beta is:  Where : E  ~ r  is the required rate of return being calculated, R f is the risk free rate:  is the Beta of the security, and Rm is the expected return on the market. 10 Beta is the Slope of an Ordinary Least Squares Regression Line Share Returns Regressed On Market Returns Returns of Share, % pa 0.12 -0.10 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 -0.05 0.00 -0.020.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 -0.04 Returns on Market, % pa 11 The Regression Process The value of Beta can be estimated as the regression coefficient of a simple regression model. The regression coefficient ‘a’ represents the intercept on the y-axis, and ‘b’ represents Beta, the slope of the regression line. rit  a  bi rmt  u it Where, rit = rate of return on individual firm i’s shares at time t rmt = rate of return on market portfolio at time t uit = random error term (as defined in regression analysis) 12 The Certainty Equivalent Method: Adjusting the cash flows to their ‘certain’ equivalents The Certainty Equivalent method adjusts the cash flows for risk, and then discounts these ‘certain’ cash flows at the risk free rate. CF1 b CF2 b NPV   etc  CO 1 2 1  r  1  r  Where: b is the ‘certainty coefficient’ (established by management, and is between 0 and 1); and r is the risk free rate. 13 Analysis Under Risk :Summary  Risk is the variation in future cash flows around a central expected value.  Risk can be accounted for by adjusting the NPV calculation discount rate: there are two methods – either the WACC, or the CAPM  Risk can also be accommodated via the Certainty Equivalent Method.  All methods require management judgment and experience. 14

Project Analysis Under Risk

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