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Consultation on MRC’s Hydropower Programme Vientiane, Lao PDR, 25-26 September 2008 Meeting rapid electricity demand growth Vu Van Thai Ministry of Industry and Trade Viet Nam General Information - Viet Nam has an area of 331,689 km2 and 3,260 km coastline. It has territorial waters with an area approximately three times larger than its mainland territory - In 2005, Viet Nam had a population of 84.4 million. - Market-oriented reforms since 1986; GDP grew at an average annual rate of 7.9 % over period of 1991-2005. - Viet Nam is endowed with diverse primary energy resources: Proven reserves of Coal are 3.88 bil.tons (potential 37 bil.tons), Oil - 615-957 mil.tons ( potential 2.3 bil.tons ), Gas 600 bil.m3 (potential 1,300 bil.m3). Hydropower potential: 60-80 bil.kWh. Renewable energy and Uranium. National Economy in 2007 • In 2007 the national economy has continued to develop steadily, reaching a 10-year record high of 8.5 %. The agroforestry and fishery sector has achieved an increase of 3.5 %, the construction and industrial sector (10.6 %), and the services sector (8.7 %). • Total social investment capital was estimated at VND464.5 trillion, representing an increase of 16.4 % from last year and making up 40.6 % of total GDP. Of the total amount, the population and private sector has made up 34.4 % (up 19.5 %) and the foreign direct investment sector 16.5 % (up 17.1 %). • Progress has also been made in social affairs, especially in poverty reduction to catch up with the implementation of other millennium development goals. The rate of poor households has dropped to 14.7 %, lower than the set target of 16 %. • The high consumer price index has affected business production and people’s daily lives The Socio-Economic Development Plan 2006-2010 Assembly of SR of Viet Nam Resolution No. 56/2006/QH11 dated June 29, 2006: • The economic development: The economic size in 2010 shall expand up to 2.1 times or more of 2000 and the per capita GDP shall increase to 1,050-1,100 dollars. • Economic growth rate (2006-2010 years) : 7.5-8.0% (Agriculture 3.0-3.2%, Industry 9.5-10.2% and Service 7.7-8.2%) • Share of GDP: Agriculture about 15-16%, Industry 4344%, and Service 40-41% • Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): 24 billion dollars Power Generation and Installed Capacity Mix by Source in 2005 Power Generation Mix by Source (bil.kWh) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Import IPP, BOT Diesel Gas Turbines (Oil & Gas) Oil fired Coal fired Hydropower 1990 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 12,000 10,000 8,000 Import IPP, BOT Diesel Gas Turbines (Oil & Gas) Oil fired Coal fired Hydropower 6,000 4,000 Installed Capacity (MW) 2,000 1990 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Power Sector in 2006-2007 • In 2006, the total installed capacity operated by EVN and IPPs were 9,544 MW and 2,726 MW respectively, making a total of 12,270 MW, from which 37.5 % hydropower, 11.8 % thermal power (coal and oilfired), 26.6 % gas turbine and 22.2 % non-EVN. • The generation output was 58,914 bil. kWh, of which hydropower generation 32.4 %, coal-fired & oil-fired 16.0 %, gas turbine 30.4 % and non-EVN 21.1 %. • The National Power Grid has reached all of cities and provinces. The total length and capacity of 500 kV network was 3,286 km and 6,600 MVA, respectively. The figures for 220 kV network was 5,650 km and 15,923 MVA. The 110 kV network has covered with the length of 11,053 km and the capacity of 20,656 MVA. • In 2007 estimated total electricity production of EVN was 67,121 bil. kWh, 13,7% higher that was in 2006 of which electricity bought from BOT and IPP was 19,338 bil. kWh, increased by 54,1%. EVN sold 58 billion kWh of electricity , an increase of 1.2 % over the yearly target and 13.4 per cent over 2006. The electricity sales helped bring in total revenue of US$3.5 billion, up 22 %. Electricity consumed by production and household sectors was about 58,19 bil. kWh, of which consumption by industry sector increased by 17,5%. Orientation for Energy Sector Development • To enhance the exploratory and exploration activities to raise the recoverable reserves of primary resources • To sufficiently supply primary energy to meet the rapidly growing demand in the future. It is estimated that the national energy demand over the next periods is 47.5-49.5 millions TOE by 2010, 110-120 million TOE by 2025 and 310-320 million TOE by 2050. • To give high priority to new and renewable development. The target is that new and renewable energy in total primary commercial energy is projected to make up 3% (equate to 1.4 million TOE) by 2010, 8% (i.e. 9.02 million TOE) by 2025 and 11% (i.e. 35 million TOE) by 2050. • To use energy efficiently, reduce elasticity (energy demand/GDP) from averagely 1.46 at present to 1.0 and 0.8 by 2015, 2025 respectively. • To ensure financial balance and viability and diversify forms of investment in developing the energy sector. Continues to issue policy that uphold justice and fairness for doing business and investing, to encouraging every economic sector and stakeholder to participate in the sector development and prosperity. Domestic Primary Energy Supply Primary Energy Supply: By 2010, about 47.5-49.5 million TOE and by 2020, about 91-100 million TOE, of which Hydropower: • About 35 billion kWh of hydropower in 2010, 60-65 billion kWh in 2020, and 70-80 billion kWh after 2020. Coal production: • Coal production will reach 35-40 million tons in 2010, 50-60 million tons in 2010, in which a portion is exploited in Khoai Chau (Hung Yen province), and coal production will be increased to 200 million tons in 2050. Oil and Gas: • The oil and gas production in the period 2006-2010 is about 25-30 million tons/year; 31-34 million tons/year in 2011-2015 and about 34-35 million tons/year in 2016-2015. Nuclear energy: The Government of Viet Nam has issued “Long term strategy on peaceful utilization of nuclear energy until 2020” as a Prime Minister Decision in January 2006, No.01/2006/QD-TTg, to start operation of the 1st plant by 2020 - Renewable electricity: the share of renewable electricity in power generation companies: 3 % in 2010, 5 % in 2020 and 10 % in 2040. Master Plan for Power Development The Master Plan for Nation Power Development during 2006-2015 with prospect to 2025 (MP No. VI), Decision No. 110/2007/QD-TTg dated 18-7-2007. • Meet the demand by socio-economic development of the country with annual GPD of approximately 8.5%-9% and higher during 2006-2010, the forecast of annual load demand growth rate at 17% (base scenario), 20% (high scenario) during 2006-2015, in which high scenario is defined to be scenario for management, the scenario of 22% annual growth rate is for unexpected growth. • Tariff to toward the market direction and to encourage the local and foreign investors to invest on power generation projects. • Implement rural electrification, try to achieve 95% communes electrified by 2010 and 100% by 2015. • National Steering Committee for MP VI was established in 2007: with a Deputy Prime Minister as Chairman and Minister of Industry and Trade as Vice Chairman. • Viet Nam will become a Net Energy Importing Country around 2015 Power Generation in MP No.VI • • • • • Construct hydro power plants of integrated benefits such as: flood prevention, water supply, power production; the gas power shall be reasonably developed to ensure the efficiency; coal fired power plant development shall be intensified; small hydro power plants and new and renewable energy shall be developed for remote, mountainous, bordering and island areas; Ensure national energy security and sustainable development, effective exchange of power with countries in the region; Complete preparation for investment of nuclear power plant and submit to the PM for approval. Properly develop Power centers in various region of the country to ensure the reliable supply of power locally and reduce the technical power loss in the national Grid as well as to ensure the economic efficiency of the projects, as contribution to the socio-economic development for each region in particular and for the whole country in general. Develop new power sources taking in to account those options of indepth investment and renovation of technology in existing power plants; environment requirements; apply modern technology for new power plants.