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Find more at www.downloadslide.com 3GFFIRS 08/30/2013 12:4:4 Page ii Find more at www.downloadslide.com 3GFFIRS 08/30/2013 12:4:4 Page i Find more at www.downloadslide.com Fourth Edition MANAGEMENT SCIENCE The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets 3GFFIRS 08/30/2013 12:4:4 Page ii Find more at www.downloadslide.com 3GFFIRS 08/30/2013 12:4:4 Page iii Find more at www.downloadslide.com Fourth Edition MANAGEMENT SCIENCE The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets STEPHEN G. POWELL Dartmouth College KENNETH R. BAKER Dartmouth College 3GFFIRS 08/30/2013 12:4:4 Page iv Find more at www.downloadslide.com Vice President and Publisher Executive Editor Project Editor Editorial Assistant Director of Marketing Senior Marketing Manager Marketing Assistant Design Director Product Designer Senior Production & Manufacturing Manager Associate Production Manager George Hoffman Lise Johnson Brian Baker Jacqueline Hughes Amy Scholz Kelly Simmons Marissa Carroll Harry Nolan Allison Morris Janis Soo Joel Balbin This book was set in 10/12 Times Roman by Thomson Digital and printed and bound by Courier Kendalville. The cover was printed by Courier Kendalville. This book is printed on acid free paper. Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. has been a valued source of knowledge and understanding for more than 200 years, helping people around the world meet their needs and fulfill their aspirations. Our company is built on a foundation of principles that include responsibility to the communities we serve and where we live and work. In 2008, we launched a Corporate Citizenship Initiative, a global effort to address the environmental, social, economic, and ethical challenges we face in our business. Among the issues we are addressing are carbon impact, paper specifications and procurement, ethical conduct within our business and among our vendors, and community and charitable support. For more information, please visit our website: www.wiley.com/go/ citizenship. Copyright # 2014, 2011, 2009, and 2007, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, website www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, (201)748-6011, fax (201)748-6008, website http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Evaluation copies are provided to qualified academics and professionals for review purposes only, for use in their courses during the next academic year. These copies are licensed and may not be sold or transferred to a third party. Upon completion of the review period, please return the evaluation copy to Wiley. Return instructions and a free of charge return shipping label are available at www.wiley.com/go/returnlabel. Outside of the United States, please contact your local representative. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Powell, Stephen G. Management science : the art of modeling with spreadsheets / Stephen G. Powell, Dartmouth College, Kenneth R. Baker, Dartmouth College. — Fourth Edition. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-118-58269-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Business–Computer simulation. 2. Electronic spreadsheets. I. Baker, Kenneth R., 1943- II. Title. HF5548.2.P654 2014 650.010 13–dc23 2013031236 Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3GFFIRS 08/30/2013 12:4:4 Page v Find more at www.downloadslide.com To Becky and Judy, for all their encouragement and support 3GFFIRS 08/30/2013 12:4:4 Page vi Find more at www.downloadslide.com 3GBTOC 08/30/2013 12:15:26 Page vii Find more at www.downloadslide.com Brief Contents CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 2 MODELING IN A PROBLEM-SOLVING FRAMEWORK CHAPTER 3 SPREADSHEET ENGINEERING CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS USING SPREADSHEETS CHAPTER 5 DATA EXPLORATION AND PREPARATION CHAPTER 6 CLASSIFICATION AND PREDICTION METHODS CHAPTER 7 SHORT-TERM FORECASTING 167 CHAPTER 8 NONLINEAR OPTIMIZATION 187 CHAPTER 9 LINEAR OPTIMIZATION CHAPTER 10 OPTIMIZATION OF NETWORK MODELS CHAPTER 11 INTEGER OPTIMIZATION CHAPTER 12 OPTIMIZATION OF NONSMOOTH MODELS CHAPTER 13 DECISION ANALYSIS CHAPTER 14 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION CHAPTER 15 OPTIMIZATION IN SIMULATION MODELING CASES 1 15 49 71 89 117 219 257 289 315 337 363 415 443 APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 459 APPENDIX 2 487 APPENDIX 3 495 vii 3GBTOC 08/30/2013 12:15:26 Page viii Find more at www.downloadslide.com