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AIRLINE OPERaTIoNS aND DELaY MaNaGEmENT To my parents, my wife, Po-Wen, and my daughter, Annie. Airline Operations and Delay Management Insights from Airline Economics, Networks and Strategic Schedule Planning CHENG-LUNG WU Department of Aviation, University of New South Wales, Sydney Australia © Cheng-Lung Wu 2010 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Cheng-Lung Wu has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, to be identified as the author of this work. Published by Ashgate Publishing Limited Ashgate Publishing Company Wey Court East Suite 420 Union Road 101 Cherry Street Farnham Burlington Surrey, GU9 7PT VT 05401-4405 England USA www.ashgate.com British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Wu, Cheng-Lung. Airline operations and delay management : insights from airline economics, networks and strategic schedule planning. 1. Airlines--Management. 2. Airlines--Cost of operation. I. Title 387.7'068-dc22 ISBN: 978-0-7546-7293-7 (hbk) ISBN.V) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Wu, Cheng-Lung. Airline operations and delay management : insights from airline economics, networks, and strategic schedule planning / by Cheng-Lung Wu. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-7546-7293-7 (hardback) -- ISBN 978-0-7546-9190-7 (ebook) 1. Airlines-Management. 2. Business logistics. 3. Scheduling. 4. Operations research. 5. Airlines-Timetables. 6. Aeronautics, Commercial--Passenger traffic. 7. Strategic planning. I. Title. HE9780.W82 2009 387.7068'5--dc22  2009032357 Contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface   vii ix xi 1 Introduction to Airline Operations and the Operating Environment  2 Airline Operations at Airports   3 Managing Airline Ground Operations   4 Enroute Flight Operations in Airline Networks   5 Delay Management and Disruption Management   6 Robust Airline Scheduling and Operational Reliability   1 13 63 117 165 201 References   Index   225 237 This page has been left blank intentionally List of Figures 2.1 A strong hubbing schedule (hypothetical data)   2.2 A weak hubbing schedule (hypothetical data)   2.3 A rolling hub schedule (hypothetical data)   2.4 Outbound and connecting baggage handling flows   2.5 Inbound baggage handling flows   2.6 B737 turnaround operations for domestic flights   2.7 The relationship between schedules, turnaround times and delays  2.8 The PDF and CDF of Flight 902   2.9 Relationships between arrival PDF and departure PDF   2.10 The PDF/CDF of actual turnaround time of Flight 208 samples   2.11 The PDF/CDF of actual departure times of Flight 208   2.12 Development of departure delay due to arrival delay of inbound aircraft   2.13 The relationship between arrival time f(t), turnaround operational efficiency (m2), and departure time g(t)   2.14 Aircraft types and fleet structure of selected airlines   2.15 Comparison between schedule time costs and aircraft sizes   2.16 Arrival time patterns (PDFs) fitted from real flight data   2.17 Various Beta functions (PDFs) used in numerical analyses   2.18 The CDFs of chosen Beta functions   2.19 Cost curves of Beta (3,10) arrivals for the BA example   2.20 Cost curves of Beta (3,10) arrivals for the BD example   2.21 Departure punctuality of RR-X from observations and model outputs   2.22 Departure punctuality of RR-Y from observations and model outputs   3.1 ATMS framework   3.2 ATMS live data flowchart   3.3 The main menu of ATMS of an example flight, XY001   3.4 The input screen of the passenger processing flow of XY001   3.5 Start and finish times of catering service   3.6 Start and finish times of goods loading   3.7 A network representation of key aircraft turnaround activities   3.8 Activity times, slack times and critical path identification   3.9 Gantt chart expression of the example turnaround PERT model   3.10 Network diagram of the example turnaround PERT model   3.11 B737 SOP for short-haul turnaround operations   3.12 Delay frequency of airline P operation at Airport A and B   15 15 16 20 20 24 27 31 31 33 33 36 38 48 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 58 70 71 72 73 74 74 79 81 83 84 88 91 viii Airline Operations and Delay Management 3.13 Delay frequency of airline P and Q operation at Airport B   3.14 Occurrence probability of delay groups in 2004 by Airline Z   3.15 Mean delay times of delay groups of Airline Z   3.16 Cargo and baggage processing flow   3.17 Passenger and cabin cleaning processing flow   3.18 Observed and simulated on-time performance of case study flights 3.19 Scenario analysis of RR-Y   3.20 Low turnaround efficiency scenario analysis for RR-Y   3.21 Passenger arrival patterns and the corresponding passenger dwell time   3.22 Reverse pyramid boarding model   4.1 Flight continuity and aircraft routing patterns for an example fleet  4.2 Crew pairings in conjunction with aircraft routing   4.3 Layers of an airline network   4.4 Flight connections at a hub airport   4.5 Different passenger flow patterns on the same network structure  4.6 Flight connections and connection windows   4.7 Route analyses for northern summer 2004   4.8 Route analyses for northern summer 2005   4.9 Route analyses for northern winter 2004–2005   4.10 Daily network status in 2004   4.11 Daily network status in 2005   4.12 Actual departure/arrival delays of the study route (by A/C No. 8)  4.13 Delay propagation after PP121 (Scenario A and B)   4.14 Delay propagation after PP125 (Scenario A and C)   4.15 Impact of low efficiency in turnarounds at the base airport of P   4.16 Overall fitness of RDP models   5.1 Aircraft utilisation of selected fleets and network OTP   5.2 Delay ranking by ground service groups (top five only)   5.3 Delay causes breakdown for Reactionary group   5.4 The conceptual model of inherent delays   5.5 Comparison between the Reality Case and the Dream Case   5.6 Simulation results of aircraft No. 8 (departure delays)   5.7 Simulation results of aircraft No. 8 (arrival delays)   5.8 Simulation results of aircraft No. 8 (D15 OTP)   5.9 Flight re-timing and potential impact on delay saving   5.10 Simulation results of the optimised schedule   5.11 Schedule reliability before and after flight re-timing optimisation  5.12 Flight delays before and after flight re-timing (Aircraft No. 1)   5.13 Interim results of flight re-timing optimisation (Aircraft No. 1)   91 92 92 95 97 101 103 104 107 113 119 124 125 129 134 136 140 140 140 141 142 146 152 152 153 160 178 179 180 183 185 186 186 187 193 193 194 195 195 List of Tables 2.1 Aircraft classification   47 2.2 Hourly aircraft operating costs (with engines off at gates)   47 2.3 Hourly schedule time costs of selected airlines   49 2.4 Parameter values used in numerical analyses   54 3.1 IATA delay codes summary   67 3.2 An in-house delay coding system of a carrier   68 3.3 Sub-codes under the ZA code (continuing from Table 3.2)   68 3.4 Activities modelled in the ATMS framework   71 3.5 List of nodes and corresponding activities in a network diagram   79 3.6 Time calculations for the example aircraft turnaround PERT model  82 3.7 Parameter calculations of stochastic service times in PERT example   86 3.8 Completion probabilities against milestone times   87 3.9 Delay code frequency statistics   90 3.10 Cargo and baggage processing flow   95 3.11 Passenger/crew/cabin cleaning process flow   97 3.12 State transition probability in cargo and baggage processing   100 3.13 State transition probability in passenger/crew/cabin flow   100 3.14 Disrupting events in aircraft turnaround operations   101 3.15 Simulation results of turnaround operations of study flights   102 4.1 The statistics of daily network status in 2004 and 2005   143 4.2 Correlation analyses between propagated delays and operational delays   143 4.3 Statistics of delays sorted by delay code groups   143 146 4.4 Routing schedule of Aircraft No. 8   4.5 Example parameters used to simulate ground operations at AP14 and AP17   150 4.6 Routing schedule of Aircraft No. 12   151 4.7 Independent variables in the flight-based Departure Delay model  155 4.8 Independent variables in the flight-based Arrival Delay model   157 4.9 An example of the flight-based delay propagation model   158 5.1 Routing schedule of Aircraft No. 8   187