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I N F L U E N Z A P A N D E M I C : Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business March 2006 Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters Run by Business, For Your Business Disclaimer Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME) has prepared this guide to promote best practices in planning for a possible influenza pandemic. The information is current as of the date of publication. However, further work is being undertaken in this area, and consequently changes, deletions, additions, or other amendments may be made to this information without notice. Users should check for more up-to-date information on CME’s web site (www.cme-mec.ca) and other websites listed in this document. The information in this document is not intended to cover every situation. Details which may be relevant to a user’s particular circumstance may have been omitted. Users are advised to seek professional advice before applying any information contained in this document to their own particular circumstances. Users should always obtain appropriate professional advice on the medical issues involved. Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters accepts no liability or responsibility for any acts or omissions resulting from reliance, in whole or in part, on this document. Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters disclaims all responsibility or liability to any person, whether in contract, equity or tort, or on any other basis, for any direct or indirect losses, illness or injury, or damage of any kind, arising from use of this document. Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters is not responsible for the contents or reliability of any websites mentioned in this document, and does not necessarily endorse the views expressed in them. Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters cannot guarantee that links will work all the time, and has no control over the availability of the linked pages. Copyright Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters owns the trademark on the cover of this document. Use or reproduction of this trademark is prohibited for any purpose (except as part of an accurate reproduction of the entire document) unless written permission is first obtained. This document is subject to copyright protection. However, this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or media without requiring specific permission. This permission is subject to the material being reproduced accurately and not being used in a derogatory manner or in a misleading context. If the material is being published or issued to others, the source and copyright status must be acknowledged. The permission to reproduce copyright protected material does not extend to any material in this document that is identified as being the copyright of a third party. Authorization to reproduce such material must be obtained directly from the copyright holders concerned. Acknowledgements This guidebook contains material drawn from a pandemic management plan prepared by Alcan Inc. Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters acknowledges Alcan’s support and willingness to share best practice across Canada’s business community. Alcan shall not be held liable for loss suffered by any person resulting in any way from the use of, or reliance on, this material. Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters also acknowledges Industry Canada, Manufacturing Industries Branch, as a partner in CME’s Business Continuity Planning Initiative and thanks the department for its support in the preparation of this Guidebook. © Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters 2006 Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business ii Contents 1. Introduction 2 2. Context 4 2.1 Pandemic Characteristics and Estimated Impact on Canadians 4 2.2 Estimated Economic Impact of a Pandemic 8 3. Business Continuity Planning for a Pandemic 10 3.1 What is Business Continuity Planning? 10 3.2 Corporate Preparedness 12 3.2a Summary Checklist for Business Pandemic Continuity Planning 14 3.3 Critical Elements of a Continuity Plan 18 3.3.1 Influenza Manager and/or Committee 18 3.3.2 Maintaining Essential Business Operations 19 3.3.3 Business Planning for Absences 21 3.3.4 Supply Chain Disruption and Border Closures 23 3.3.5 Financial Analysis 26 3.3.6 Staff Travel and Expatriates Evacuation Plan 27 3.3.7 Communication with Staff 28 3.4 Activation of Pandemic Continuity Plan 29 3.5 Medical Precautions and Information 32 3.5.1 Restrict Workplace Entry of People with Influenza Symptoms 33 3.5.2 Personal Hygiene 35 3.5.3 Workplace Cleaning 39 3.5.4 Increase Social Distancing 40 3.5.5 Summary: How to Stay Healthy During the Pandemic Influenza 41 3.5.6 Personal Protection Materials 42 3.6 Policies for Exposed Employees 43 3.7 Contact Management and Tracing 47 3.8 Communications 51 4. Human Resource Considerations 54 4.1 Canada Labour Code and Occupational Health and Safety Regulations 56 4.2 Training and Awareness 59 Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business 4.3 Selected Federal and Provincial Labour Statutes and Regulations iii 60 Appendix 1: Where Can I Find More Information? 62 Appendix 2: Background on Influenza Pandemic 67 Appendix 2a: WHO Pandemic Phases 74 Appendix 2b: List of Acronyms 75 Appendix 3: Pandemic Management Phase – Standard Planning Assumptions 76 Appendix 4: Key Elements of an Organization-Specific Business Continuity Plan 79 Appendix 5: Sample Business Continuity Contact List for Pandemic Influenza 82 Appendix 6: Brief Overview: Alcan Inc. Crisis Management Plan for Pandemic 87 Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CME) is Canada’s largest trade and industry association. Its mandate is to promote the competitiveness of Canadian manufacturers and enable the success of Canadian businesses in world markets. CME’s membership is drawn from all sectors of Canada’s manufacturing and exporting community, and from all provinces and territories. Over 85 percent of CME’s members are small- and mediumsized enterprises. The association also represents Canada’s leading global enterprises. Together, CME’s members account for an estimated 75 percent of total manufacturing production in Canada and 90 percent of Canadian exports. For more information, or to become a member, call 1-800-268-9684 or visit www.cme-mec.ca. Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business 2 1. Introduction This guide is designed to help businesses minimize the risk that an influenza pandemic poses to the health and safety of employees, the continuity of business operations, and their bottom line. It is intended to provide all businesses in Canada with the basic information they require in preparing a continuity plan to mitigate the potential effects of a pandemic. In response to the threat posed by the continuing spread of the H5N1 virus (avian influenza or ‘bird flu’), the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended that all countries undertake urgent action to prepare. While there is no way to predict either exactly when the next pandemic might occur or the severity of the impact, the WHO has stated that the risk of the H5N1 virus developing into the next human pandemic influenza is immediate and very real. In January 2006, the avian flu virus spread west from Southeast Asia to Turkey, claiming the first human cases and deaths outside of Southeast Asia and China. In February 2006, the virus reached Africa and the Caspian Sea. Experts warn that no matter how prepared Canada is, we will not be spared from a pandemic, and that it could claim as many as 58,000 lives (See Fast Facts, Page 3). Once a pandemic virus emerges, it will be too late to begin planning. The virus is highly contagious and spreads quickly. There will be only a 20-to-30 day window between emergence and pandemic, while it will take four-to-five days for a patient to become symptomatic. As with any risk that threatens the viability of business operations, continuity planning is critical. All businesses will be affected by an influenza pandemic. In addition to the threat to human health, the economic impacts of a pandemic, including absenteeism in the workplace or the downstream effects stemming from supply-chain and travel disruption, will be significant and widespread. All businesses should take immediate steps to develop continuity plans that protect employees, minimize disruptions, and contain negative impacts on customers, the economy, and local communities. Companies that provide critical infrastructure services, such as energy, financial services, transportation, and telecommunications services, have a special responsibility to plan for continuing operations in the event of a pandemic and should plan accordingly. While a pandemic cannot be stopped, proper preparation may reduce its impact. This guide provides need-to-know information that will assist all businesses in Canada in preparing business continuity plans. To that end, the guide contains: • A background summary of the potential impacts of an influenza pandemic on business; • An overview of the human resource issues involved; and, • The critical elements that should be incorporated into business continuity strategies for managing the impact of an influenza pandemic, including how to: Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business o Maintain essential activities; and, o Contain/minimize the spread of infection in the workplace. 3 In addition: • Appendix 1 provides a comprehensive list of Federal, Provincial and International contacts where businesses can find more information about pandemic influenza and emergency preparedness measures; • Appendix 2 provides a more detailed background on the nature of an influenza pandemic, and briefly describes the Government of Canada’s strategy in preparing for, and managing, a future pandemic; • Appendix 3 outlines the standard planning assumptions that should be taken into account in pandemic management; • Appendix 4 sets out key elements of an organization-specific business continuity plan for an influenza pandemic; • Appendix 5 provides a sample business continuity contact list for pandemic influenza; and, • Appendix 6 describes an actual case of continuity planning in the form of a brief overview of Alcan’s crisis management plan for pandemic influenza. The information on business continuity planning for a pandemic is necessarily generic, and will need to be adapted to meet the circumstances of each business. Primary sources of information for this guidebook include Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada (PSEPC)1, Health Canada2, the WHO3, Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC)4, the Government of New Zealand’s Business Continuity Planning Guide5, the BC Ministry of Health6, Vancouver Coastal Health’s Regional Pandemic Influenza Response Plan7, the Virginia Department of Health, the U.S. government’s pandemic flu site8, the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)9, the Canadian Provincial and Territorial Emergency Management Offices10. Refer to Appendix 2b for a list of acronyms contained in this guide. 1 http://www.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/prg/em/gds/bcp-en.asp http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/iyh-vsv/diseases-maladies/avian-aviare_e.html 3 http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/index.html 4 www.hrsdc.gc.ca 5 http://www.moh.govt.nz/pandemicinfluenza; http://www.med.govt.nz/irdev/econ_dev/pandemic-planning/businesscontinuity/planning-guide/planning-guide.pdf 6 http://www.gov.bc.ca/bvprd/bc/channel.do?action=ministry&channelID=-8387&navId=NAV_ID_province 7 http://www.vch.ca/public/communicable/pandemic.htm 8 http://www.PandemicFlu.gov 9 http://www.cdc.gov/business 10 http://209.217.125.7/ep/contact_e.asp 2 Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business 4 2. Context 2.1 Pandemic Characteristics and Estimated Impact on Canadians Influenza viruses periodically cause worldwide epidemics, or pandemics, with high rates of illness and death. A pandemic can occur at any time, with the potential to cause serious illness, death and colossal social and economic disruption throughout the world. Experts agree that future influenza pandemics are inevitable, but the timing of the next pandemic cannot be predicted. Since there may be little warning, continuity planning in advance is required to contain the potentially devastating effects of a pandemic. Fast Facts: • Pandemic influenza, or flu, is a global outbreak of disease that occurs when a new influenza A virus appears in humans, causes serious illness and then spreads easily from person to person. • Seasonal flu is a viral infection of the lungs that appears each year between November and March. • About 8,000 Canadians die each year from seasonal flu. Health Canada estimates that a pandemic flu could claim 11,000 - 58,000 lives. • Experts agree: it is not a question of if, but when the next flu pandemic will strike. • An influenza pandemic could last for a year or more, infecting up to one-third of the population of Canada. • Despite all preparedness efforts, Canada will not be spared from a flu pandemic. • All businesses, hospitals and government agencies will feel the effects of a pandemic. • 15 to 35 percent of your workforce may be ill at any one time. • Unlike other disasters, a flu pandemic will touch everyone in every part of the country, and every part of the world. Moving operations to another location is not likely to be a viable option. • A flu pandemic could cost the Canadian economy billions of dollars in lost productivity and medical expenses. • During a pandemic, it will not be business as usual. Historic evidence suggests that pandemics have occurred three to four times per century. In the last century there were three influenza pandemics (“Spanish flu” in 1918–19; “Asian flu” in 1957–58 and “Hong Kong flu” in 1968–69), separated by intervals of 11 to Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business 5 44 years. The worst, in 1918–19, killed an estimated 30,000 to 50,000 people in Canada and 20 to 40 million people worldwide. During each of the last three pandemics, the greatest increase in death rates occurred among persons less than 60 years of age; in 1918–19, the greatest number of deaths occurred in those 20 to 40 years of age. In the event of a pandemic influenza, Health Canada estimates that 4.5 to 10.6 million Canadians would become clinically ill such that they would be unable to attend work or other activities for at least half a day. This proportion, representing 15% to 35% of the population, does not include individuals who contract the virus and feel ill, but continue their usual activities. In addition, it is estimated that between 2.1 and 5.0 million people would require outpatient care, between 34,000 and 138,000 people would require hospitalization, and between 11,000 and 58,000 people would die in Canada during an influenza pandemic.11 A pandemic is not like a physical disaster. A pandemic has unique characteristics when compared with a more “typical” disaster: • Widespread impact: The impact of a pandemic would be widespread, even global in extent, not localized to a single area. Therefore there may be little outside assistance. Many business continuity plans (BCPs) assume some part of an organization is unaffected and can take up the required capacity. That is not likely to be possible in the event of a pandemic. • Not a physical disaster: A pandemic is not a physical disaster. It has some unique characteristics that require measures to limit social contact such as restriction of movement, quarantine, and closure of public gatherings. • Duration: A pandemic would not be a short, sharp event leading immediately to commencement of a recovery phase. Many BCPs assume the event is short/sharp and that recovery can start immediately. • Notice: Based on the last two pandemics, it is estimated that the next pandemic virus will be present in Canada within three months after it emerges in another part of the world, but it is, in fact, likely to occur much sooner due to increases in the volume and speed of global air travel. Upon arrival, the virus will spread across Canada with great speed (In 1918, returning soldiers with influenza traveling on trains carried the virus from Quebec to Vancouver in only a few weeks). The first peak of illness in Canada is likely to occur within two to four months after the virus arrives in Canada. The first peak in mortality is expected one month after the peak in illness. 11 These numbers are estimates and do not take into account the differences in the health care systems, practice patterns and health care seeking behaviour across Canada, nonetheless, they provide a picture of the magnitude and potential impact of the next influenza pandemic. Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business 6 When pandemic influenza appears in Canada it will probably be some weeks before the full impact on the workforce will be felt, although there may be some early impacts resulting from closures of schools and similar containment measures. • Primary effect is on staffing levels: Unlike natural disasters, where any disruption to business service provision is likely to be hardware-related, disruption to business operations in the event of a pandemic is anticipated to be mainly human-resource oriented. Businesses should plan for up to 50 percent staff absences for periods of about two weeks at the height of a severe pandemic wave, and lower levels of staff absence for a few weeks either side of the peak. Overall a pandemic wave may last about eight weeks. In addition, it has been observed that an influenza pandemic usually spreads in two or more waves, either in the same year or in successive influenza seasons. A second wave may occur within three to nine months of the initial outbreak wave and may cause more serious illnesses and deaths than the first. In any locality, the length of each wave of illness is likely to be six to eight weeks. Staff absences can be expected for many reasons: • • • • • Illness/incapacity (suspected/actual/post-infectious); Some employees may need to stay at home to care for the ill; People may feel safer at home (e.g. to keep out of crowded places such as public transport); Some people may be fulfilling other voluntary roles in the community; and Others may need to stay at home to look after school-aged children (as schools are likely to be closed). A pandemic may have other impacts on businesses, for example: • • • • • The provision of essential services like information, telecommunications, and financial services, energy supply, and logistics may be disrupted; Customer orders may be cancelled or may not be able to be filled; Supplies of materials needed for ongoing business activity may be disrupted. Further problems can be expected if goods are imported by air or land over the Canada-U.S. border; The availability of services from sub-contractors may be affected (this may affect maintenance of key equipment, and is an area that merits close planning attention); and, Demand for business services may be affected – demand for some services may increase (internet access is a possible example); while demand for others may fall (e.g. certain types of travel activity). The Bank of Montreal (BMO Nesbitt Burns), indicates that, depending on the scenario, pandemic influenza could have serious negative impacts on the Canadian economy and significantly impair the ability to conduct business and commercial activities. Their report also points out that: Influenza Pandemic: Continuity Planning Guide for Canadian Business • • • • 7 Public meetings are likely to be cancelled by the authorities or because of low attendance. Canada’s trade status may be compromised. Impacts on critical infrastructure impacts are likely to be moderate to serious. The tourism industry would be badly affected. Sectors that depend on heavy foot traffic -- retail, leisure, gaming, lodging, and restaurant industries – could especially take a hit if the avian flu turns into a pandemic. During the SARS outbreak, people avoided densely populated public areas and any place where people congregated in confined spaces. Consumers are likely to cut down on travel and leisure-related expenditures, including transportation, hotels, cruises, entertainment, and visits to theme parks and other public venues.