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LBNL-41843 ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY India’s Pulp and Paper Industry: Productivity and Energy Efficiency Katja Schumacher and Jayant Sathaye Environmental Energy Technologies Division July 1999 This work was supported by the Environmental Science Division, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), Office of Energy Research, U.S. Department of Energy, under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098. Disclaimer This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor The Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by its trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or The Regents of the University of California. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof, or The Regents of the University of California. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is an equal opportunity employer. LBNL-41843 India’s Pulp and Paper Industry: Productivity and Energy Efficiency Katja Schumacher* and Jayant Sathaye Energy Analysis Program Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley, CA 94720 * Fax: (510) 486-6996, Email: KBSchumacher@lbl.gov July 1999 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank Joyashree Roy, Ernst Worrell, Puran Mongia, and Marta Khrushch for their valuable assistance and comments on previous drafts of this paper. This work was supported by the Environmental Science Division, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), Office of Energy Research, U.S. Department of Energy, under Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098. ii Abstract Historical estimates of productivity growth in India’s pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector’s productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. We derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Our results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India’s pulp and paper sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? We examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Our analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows as these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go. iii Table of Contents List of Tables vi List of Figures vii 1. Introduction 1 2. Pulp and Paper Industry 2 2.1. The Pulp and Paper Industry in Context 2 2.2. Pulp and Paper Process 2.2.1. Wood Preparation 2.2.2. Pulping 2.2.3. Bleaching 2.2.4. Chemical Recovery 2.2.5. Paper Making 3 4 4 5 5 5 2.3. Pulp and Paper Production in India 2.3.1. Raw Material Constraint 2.3.2. Energy Use 2.3.3. Environmental Impact 5 7 8 9 2.4. Policy 10 3. Statistical and Econometric Analysis 13 3.1. Statistical Analysis 3.1.1. Previous Studies 3.1.1.1. Partial Productivity 3.1.1.2. Total Factor Productivity Growth 3.1.2. Own Estimates 3.1.2.1. Partial Productivity 3.1.2.2. Total Factor Productivity 3.1.2.3. Total Productivity 13 14 17 18 18 18 20 21 3.2. Econometric Analysis 3.2.1. Previous Studies 3.2.2. Own Estimates 23 23 24 3.3. Discussion 25 iv 4. Future Development of the Pulp and Paper Sector 28 4.1. Ongoing Changes in the Cement Industry 28 4.2. Potentials for Energy Efficiency Improvements 4.2.1. India versus Best Practice 4.2.2. Categories for Energy Efficiency Improvement 4.2.3. Barriers to Energy Efficiency Improvement 30 30 31 31 5. Summary and Conclusion 32 References 34 Appendix 36 v List of Tables Table 2.1 Economic Indicators for the Pulp and Paper Industry Table 2.2 Paper: Number of Paper Mills, Production, and Capacity Table 2.3 Newsprint: Production and Capacity Table 2.4 Specific Energy Consumption in a Typical Indian Integrated Bleached Kraft Mill Table 2.5 Energy Consumption in Indian Paper Mills Table 2.6 Overview of Policies Regarding the Pulp and Paper Industry (1973-93) Table 3.1 Partial Productivity Growth Table 3.2 Total Factor Productivity Growth Table 3.3 Total Productivity Growth Table 3.4 Decomposition of Growth in Value of Output Table 3.5 Estimated Parameters for the Translog Cost Function Approach Table 3.6 Technical Change Bias Table 3.7 Price Elasticities of Substitution Table 3.8 Elasticities of Substitution – Qualitative Overview Table 4.1 Demand and Production of Paper - Projections Table 4.2 Proposed Expansion of Paper Manufacturing Capacities Table 4.3 Energy Consumption in India and Abroad Table 4.4 Specific Energy Consumption Norms for India (proposed) vi List of Figures Figure 2.1 Changes in Physical Energy Intensity of Various Industries Figure 3.1 Estimates of Partial Productivity Growth: Capital Figure 3.2 Estimates of Partial Productivity Growth: Labor Figure 3.3 Estimates of Capital-Labor Ratio Figure 3.4 Estimates of Total Factor Productivity Growth Figure 3.5 Index of Partial Productivity Figure 3.6 Index of Total Factor Productivity Figure 3.7 Index of Total Productivity vii 1. Introduction The pulp and paper sector presents one of the energy intensive and highly polluting sectors within the Indian economy and is therefore of particular interest in the context of both local and global environmental discussions. Increases in productivity through the adoption of more efficient and cleaner technologies in the manufacturing sector will be most effective in merging economic, environmental, and social development objectives. A historical examination of productivity growth in India’s industries embedded into a broader analysis of structural composition and policy changes will help identify potential future development strategies that lead towards a more sustainable development path. Issues of productivity growth and patterns of substitution in the pulp and paper sector as well as in other energy intensive industries in India have been discussed from various perspectives. Historical estimates vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector’s productivity. The variation depends mainly on the time period considered, the source of data, the type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Regarding patterns of substitution most analyses focus on interfuel substitution possibilities in the context of rising energy demand. Not much research has been conducted on patterns of substitution among the primary and secondary input factors: capital, labor, energy and materials. However, analyzing the use and substitution possibilities of these factors as well as identifying the main drivers of productivity growth among these and other factors is of special importance for understanding technological and overall development of an industry. In this paper we contribute to the discussion on productivity growth and the role of technological change. We introduce the pulp and paper industry in more detail taking into account industry specific aspects such as structural composition, production, technologies, energy consumption within processes, sector specific policies etc. This following we derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for the fertilizer sector over time. For the statistical analysis we develop the Kendrick and Solow indices while for the econometric analysis a translog cost function approach using both cross-state and national time series data is employed. The results are then interpreted within a broader context of structural and policy changes in the sector as well as other sector specific aspects. Future energy use depends on the level of production and the technologies employed. Furthermore, different economic and policy settings affect structures and efficiencies within the sector. The final section therefore examines the ongoing changes in the pulp and paper industry structure. It compares world best technologies to Indian technologies and identify potentials and barriers to the adoption of such efficiency improvements. We conclude the report in highlighting the energy efficiency and productivity improvements that could be achieved by employing more efficient technologies. 1