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Human Development Report 2014 Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience Empowered lives. Resilient nations. The 2014 Human Development Report is the latest in the series of global Human Development Reports published by UNDP since 1990 as independent, empirically grounded analyses of major development issues, trends and policies. Additional resources related to the 2014 Human Development Report can be found online at http://hdr.undp.org, including complete editions or summaries of the Report in more than 20 languages, a collection of papers commissioned for the 2014 Report, interactive maps and databases of national human development indicators, full explanations of the sources and methodologies employed in the Report’s human development indices, country profiles and other background materials as well as previous global, regional and national Human Development Reports. Human Development Report 2014 Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience Empowered lives. Resilient nations. Published for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Reports 1990–2014 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007/2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 Concept and Measurement of Human Development Financing Human Development Global Dimensions of Human Development People’s Participation New Dimensions of Human Security Gender and Human Development Economic Growth and Human Development Human Development to Eradicate Poverty Consumption for Human Development Globalization with a Human Face Human Rights and Human Development Making New Technologies Work for Human Development Deepening Democracy in a Fragmented World Millennium Development Goals: A Compact among Nations to End Human Poverty Cultural Liberty in Today’s Diverse World International Cooperation at a Crossroads: Aid, Trade and Security in an Unequal World Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development The Real Wealth of Nations: Pathways to Human Development Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerability and Building Resilience Regional Human Development Reports: Over the past two decades, regionally focused HDRs have also been produced in all major areas of the developing world, with support from UNDP’s regional bureaus. With provocative analyses and clear policy recommendations, regional HDRs have examined such critical issues as political empowerment in the Arab states, food security in Africa, climate change in Asia, treatment of ethnic minorities in Central Europe and challenges of inequality and citizens’ security in Latin America and the Caribbean. National Human Development Reports: Since the release of the first national HDR in 1992, national HDRs have been produced in 140 countries by local editorial teams with UNDP support. These reports—some 700 to date—bring a human development perspective to national policy concerns through local consultations and research. National HDRs have covered many key development issues, from climate change to youth employment to inequalities driven by gender or ethnicity. Copyright © 2014 by the United Nations Development Programme 1 UN Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission. ISBN 978-92-1-126368-8 eISBN 978-92-1-056659-9 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library and the Library of Congress. Printed in the United States by PBM Graphics, an RR Donnelley Company, on Forest Stewardship Council certified and elemental chlorine‑free papers. Printed using vegetable-based inks. Editing and production: Communications Development Incorporated, Washington DC, USA Information design and data visualisation: Accurat s.r.l., Milan, Italy For a list of any errors or omissions found subsequent to printing, please visit our website at http://hdr.undp.org Human Development Report 2014 Team Director and lead author Khalid Malik Research and statistics Maurice Kugler (Head of Research), Milorad Kovacevic (Chief Statistician), Eva Jespersen (Deputy Director), Subhra Bhattacharjee, Astra Bonini, Cecilia Calderon, Alan Fuchs, Amie Gaye, Sasa Lucic, Arthur Minsat, Shivani Nayyar, Pedro Martins, Tanni Mukhopadhyay and José Pineda Communications and publishing William Orme (Chief of Communications), Botagoz Abreyeva, Eleonore Fournier-Tombs, Anna Ortubia, Admir Jahic, Brigitte Stark-Merklein, Samantha Wauchope and Grace Sales National Human Development Reports Jon Hall (Head of Team), Christina Hackmann and Mary Ann Mwangi Operations and administration Sarantuya Mend (Operations Manager), Mamaye Gebretsadik and Fe Juarez-Shanahan | iii Foreword The 2014 Human Development Report— Sustaining Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience—looks at two concepts which are both interconnected and immensely important to securing human development progress. Since the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) first global Human Development Report (HDR) in 1990, most countries have registered significant human development. This year’s Report shows that overall global trends are positive and that progress is continuing. Yet, lives are being lost, and livelihoods and development undermined, by natural or human-induced disasters and crises. However, these setbacks are not inevitable. While every society is vulnerable to risk, some suffer far less harm and recover more quickly than others when adversity strikes. This Report asks why that is and, for the first time in a global HDR, considers vulnerability and resilience through a human development lens. Much of the existing research on vulnerability has considered people’s exposure to particular risks and is often sector-specific. This Report takes a different and more holistic approach. It considers the factors which contribute to risks to human development and then discusses the ways in which resilience to a broad group of evolving risks could be strengthened. This approach is particularly important in our interconnected world. While globalization has brought benefits to many, it has also given rise to new concerns, manifest at times as local reactions to the spillover effects of events far away. Preparing citizens for a less vulnerable future means strengthening the intrinsic resilience of communities and countries. This Report lays the groundwork for doing that. In line with the human development paradigm, this Report takes a people-centred approach. It pays particular attention to disparities between and within countries. It identifies the ‘structurally vulnerable’ groups of people who are more vulnerable than others by virtue of their history or of their unequal treatment by the rest of society. These vulnerabilities have iv | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2014 often evolved and persisted over long periods of time and may be associated with gender, ethnicity, indigeneity or geographic location— to name just a few factors. Many of the most vulnerable people and groups face numerous and overlapping constraints on their ability to cope with setbacks. For example, those who are poor and also from a minority group, or are female and have disabilities, face multiple barriers which can negatively reinforce each other. The Report considers the way in which vulnerabilities change during our lives—by taking a ‘life cycle approach’. Unlike more static models, this analysis suggests that children, adolescents and the elderly each face different sets of risks which require targeted responses. Some periods of life are identified as particularly important: for example, the first 1,000 days of a child’s life or the transition from school to work or from work to retirement. Setbacks at these points can be particularly difficult to overcome and may have prolonged impacts. Based on analysis of the available evidence, this Report makes a number of important recommendations for achieving a world which addresses vulnerabilities and builds resilience to future shocks. It calls for universal access to basic social services, especially health and education; stronger social protection, including unemployment insurance and pensions; and a commitment to full employment, recognizing that the value of employment extends far beyond the income it generates. It examines the importance of responsive and fair institutions and increased social cohesion for building community-level resilience and for reducing the potential for conflict to break out. The Report recognizes that no matter how effective policies are in reducing inherent vulnerabilities, crises will continue to occur with potentially destructive consequences. Building capacities for disaster preparedness and recovery, which enable communities to better ­weather—and recover from—shocks, is vital. At the global level, recognizing that risks which are transborder in nature require collective action, the Report calls for global commitments and better international governance. These recommendations are both important and timely. As UN Member States prepare to conclude negotiations on the post-2015 development agenda and launch a set of sustainable development goals, the evidence collected and analysed in this Report, and the human development perspective on which it is based, are particularly valuable. Eradicating poverty, for example, will be a central objective of the new agenda. But, as this Report argues, if people remain at risk of slipping back into poverty because of structural factors and persistent vulnerabilities, development progress will remain precarious. The eradication of poverty is not just about ‘getting to zero’—it is also about staying there. Achieving UNDP’s vision to help countries achieve the simultaneous eradication of poverty and significant reduction of inequalities and exclusion and to promote human and sustainable development, requires a deep appreciation of the concepts of vulnerability and resilience. Unless and until vulnerabilities are addressed effectively, and all people enjoy the opportunity to share in human development progress, development advances will be neither equitable nor sustainable. This Report aims to help decisionmakers and other development actors lock in development gains through policies which reduce vulnerability and build resilience. I recommend it to all who wish to see sustained development progress, especially for the most vulnerable people in our world. Helen Clark Administrator United Nations Development Programme Foreword | v Acknowledgements The 2014 Human Development Report is the product of a collective effort by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report Office (HDRO) and many valued external advisors and contributors. However, the findings, analysis and policy recommendations of this Report, as with previous Reports, are those of the authors alone and do not represent the official viewpoint of UNDP, nor that of its Executive Board. The UN General Assembly has officially recognized the Human Development Report as “an independent intellectual exercise” that has become “an important tool for raising awareness about human development around the world.”1 We are pleased that H.E. Ms. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of Liberia, Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking, James Heckman, Rajendra Pachauri, Juan Somavia, Joseph Stiglitz and M.S. Swaminathan have made special contributions to the Report. We are also most grateful to the authors of papers commissioned for this 2014 Report: Connie Bayudan; Des Gasper and Oscar Gomez; Andrew Fischer; Thomas Hale; Khalil Hamdani; Abby Hardgrove, Kirrilly Pells, Jo Boyden and Paul Dornan; Naila Kabeer; Inge Kaul; William Kinsey; Samir KC, Wolfgang Lutz, Elke Loichinger, Raya Muttarak and Erich Striessnig; Rehman Sobhan; Adam Rose; Till von Wachter; Mary E. Young; and Ashgar Zaidi. During the preparation of the Report, HDRO received invaluable insights and guidance from our distinguished Advisory Panel, including Hanan Ashrawi, Edward Ayensu, Cristovam Ricardo Cavalcanti Buarque, Michael Elliott, Patrick Guillaumont, Ricardo Hausmann, Nanna Hvidt, Rima Khalaf, Nora Lustig, Sir James Alexander Mirrlees, Thandika Mkandawire, José Antonio Ocampo, Rajendra Pachauri, Samir Radwan, Rizal Ramli, Gustav Ranis, Frances Stewart, Akihiko Tanaka and Ruan Zongze. We would also like to thank HDRO’s statistical panel, which provided expert advice on methodologies and data choices related to the calculation of the Report’s human development indices: Jose Ramon Albert, Sir Anthony vi | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2014 Atkinson, Birol Aydemir, Rachid Benmokhtar Benabdellah, Wasmalia Bivar, Grant Cameron, Nailin Feng, Enrico Giovannini, D.C.A. Gunawardena, Peter Harper, Yemi Kale, Hendrik van der Pol and Eduardo Sojo Garza-Aldape. The Report’s composite indices and other statistical resources rely on the expertise of the leading international data providers in their specialized fields, and we express our gratitude for their continued collegial collaboration with HDRO. James Foster, Stephan Klasen and Conchita D’Ambrosio contributed critical reviews of the Report’s composite indices. To ensure accuracy and clarity, the Report’s statistical analysis have also benefitted from the external review of statistical findings by Sabina Alkire, Adriana Conconi, Maria Emma Santos, Kenneth Harttgen, Hiroaki Matsuura, Claudio Montenegro, Atika Pasha and Jackie Yiptong. The consultations held around the world during preparation of the Report relied on the generous support of many institutions and individuals who are too numerous to mention here. Events were held between April 2012 and February 2014 in Addis Ababa, Almaty, Brussels, Geneva, Islamabad, Managua, New York and Tokyo.2 Support from partnering institutions, including UNDP country and regional offices, listed at http://hdr.undp.org/ en/2014-report/consultations, is acknowledged with much gratitude. Equally, the annual HDRO Conference on Measuring Human Progress has allowed us to pursue a systematic dialogue with key partners from government, academia and civil society on our indices and their improvements. Many of our UNDP colleagues around the world—as members of the HDRO Readers Group and the Executive Group—provided invaluable insights into the preparation and final drafting of the report. We would especially like to thank Adel Abdellatif, Pedro Conceição, Samuel Doe, George Ronald Gray Molina, Heraldo Muñoz, Selim Jehan, Natalia Linou, Abdoulaye Mar Dieye, Magdy Martinez-Soliman, Stan Nkwain, Thangaval Palanivel, Jordan Ryan, Turhan Saleh, Ben Slay, Mounir Tabet, Antonio Vigilante and Mourad Wahba. Colleagues at Helpage, the United Nations Children’s Fund and the International Labour Organization also offered much valued insights and commentary. Laurent Thomas and Neil Marsland from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations also generously shared their expertise. Special thanks to the Governments of France (AFD) and Germany (BMZ) for their financial contributions to the Report, and to the Government of Japan ( JICA) for their support to the East Asia Regional Consultation. We are much indebted to our team of fact-checkers and consultants, which included Akmal Abdurazakov, Melissa Mahoney, Agnes Zabsonre and Simona Zampino. Our interns Caterina Alacevich, Ruijie Cheng, Bouba Housseini, Yoo Rim Lee, Élisée Miningou, Ji Yun Sul, Petros Tesfazion and Lin Yang also deserve recognition for their dedication and contribution. The Report has been blessed with many ‘friends of HDRO’ who have gone out of their way to help strengthen it. We benefited much from the critical readings of the draft report and related textual contributions by James Heintz, Shiva Kumar, Peter Stalker and Frances Stewart. We are very grateful to Amartya Sen and Joseph Stiglitz for their review and feedback on the report. In particular we would like to acknowledge the highly professional work of our editors at Communications Development Incorporated, led by Bruce Ross-Larson, with Joe Caponio, Christopher Trott and Elaine Wilson, and of designers Federica Fragapane, Michele Graffieti and Gabriele Rossi of Accurat Design. Most of all, I am as always profoundly grateful to Helen Clark, UNDP’s Administrator, for her leadership and vision, and to the entire HDRO team for their dedication and commitment in producing a report that strives to further the advancement of human development. Khalid Malik Director Human Development Report Office Notes 1 2 UN Resolution 57/264, 30 January 2003. Participants are listed and acknowledged at http://hdr.undp.org/en/2014-report/consultations. Acknowledgments | vii Contents Foreword Acknowledgements Overview iv vi 1 CHAPTER 1 STATISTICAL ANNEX Readers guide 155 Key to HDI countries and ranks, 2013 159 Statistical tables 1. Human Development Index and its components 160 2. Human Development Index trends, 1980–2013 164 3. Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index 168 Vulnerability and human development 15 A human development perspective 16 4. Gender Inequality Index 172 Vulnerable people, vulnerable world 18 5. Gender Development Index 176 Choices and capabilities 23 6. Multidimensional Poverty Index 180 Policies and collective action 24 CHAPTER 2 6A. Multidimensional Poverty Index: Changes over time (select countries) 182 7. Health: children and youth 184 8. Adult health and health expenditures 188 9. Education 192 10. Command over and allocation of resources 196 State of human development 33 Progress of people 33 11. Social competencies 200 45 12. Personal insecurity 204 13. International integration 208 14. Environment 212 15. Population trends 216 16. Supplementary indicators: perceptions of well-being 220 Global threats to human development CHAPTER 3 Vulnerable people, vulnerable world 55 Life capabilities and life cycle vulnerabilities—interdependent and cumulative 56 Regions 224 Structural vulnerabilities 70 Statistical references 225 Group violence and insecure lives 77 CHAPTER 4 SPECIAL CONTRIBUTIONS Measuring human progress— Bill Gates 47 Meeting the Zero Hunger Challenge— Professor M.S. Swaminathan 49 Dealing with climate change— Rajendra Pachauri 52 Human development and early childhood development— James Heckman 58 Building resilience: expanded freedoms, protected choices 83 Universal provision of basic social services 85 Addressing life cycle vulnerabilities—timing matters 90 Valuing the dignity of work— Dr. Juan Somavia 67 Promoting full employment 92 Disability and vulnerability— Stephen Hawking 77 97 Broadening our thinking on vulnerability— Joseph Stiglitz 84 Strengthening social protection Addressing societal inclusion 101 Upgrading capacities to prepare for and recover from crises 107 CHAPTER 5 BOXES 1.1 Towards human resilience: concepts and definitions 16 1.2 Shocks and threats to human development 21 1.3 Measuring vulnerability 28 Deepening progress: global goods and collective action 111 2.1 Looking at disposable income 42 Transnational vulnerabilities and common threads 111 2.2 Macroeconomics and austerity 44 Putting people first in a globalized world 117 3.1 Meaningful differences: 30 million more words 61 Collective action for a more secure world 128 3.2 Somalia: conflict and youth exclusion 65 3.3 Violence against women 75 3.4 Disaster resilience—Japan’s experience 78 4.1 Macroeconomic policies for full employment 95 4.2 Policy successes in East Asia 96 Notes References viii | HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2014 133 139