Nội dung

Global Retail Lending in the Aftermath of the US Financial Crisis: Distinguishing between Supply and Demand Effects Manju Puri, † Jörg Rocholl,‡ and Sascha Steffen§ November 2009 This paper examines the broader effects of the U.S. financial crisis on global lending to retail customers. In particular we examine retail bank lending in Germany taking advantage of a unique dataset of German savings banks over the period 2006-2008 for which we have the universe of loan applications and loans granted in this time period. Our experimental setting allows us to distinguish between those savings banks affected by the U.S. financial crisis, through their holdings in Landesbanken with substantial subprime exposure, and unaffected savings banks. We are further able to distinguish between demand and supply side effects of bank lending. We find demand for loans goes down but is not substantially different for the affected and non-affected banks. We find evidence of a supply side effect in that the affected banks reject substantially more loan applications than non-affected banks. This effect is particularly strong for smaller and more liquidity-constrained banks as well as for mortgage as compared to consumer loans. We also find that bank-depositor relationships help mitigate these supply side effects. We thank Hans Degryse, Andrew Ellul, Mark Flannery, Nils Friewald, Victoria Ivashina, Hamid Mehran, Phil Strahan, as well as seminar participants at the 2009 CEPR Meetings in Gerzensee, Business Models in Banking Conference at Bocconi, FDIC 9th Annual Bank Research Conference, Recent Developments in Consumer Credit and Payments Conference at Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia, German Finance Association Annual Meeting, Deutsche Bundesbank, Duke University, ESMT, Tilburg University, University of Amsterdam, and University of Mannheim. We are grateful to the FDIC for funding and to the German Savings Bank Association for access to data. † Duke University and NBER. Email: mpuri@duke.edu. Tel: (919) 660-7657. ESMT European School of Management and Technology. Email: rocholl@esmt.org. Tel: +49 30 21231-1292. § University of Mannheim. Email: steffen@bank.bwl.uni-mannheim.de. Tel: +49 621 181 1531. ‡ 1. Introduction Krugman and Obstfeld (2008) argue that “one of the most pervasive features of today’s commercial banking industry is that banking activities have become globalized.” An important question is whether the growing trend in globalization in banking results in events such as the U.S. financial crisis affecting the real economy in other countries through the bank lending channel. In particular, it is important to understand the implications for retail customers who are a major driver of economic spending and who have been the focus of much of regulators’ attention in dealing with the current crisis.1 The goal of this paper is thus to understand if subsequent to a substantial adverse credit shock such as the U.S. financial crisis there is an important global supply side effect for retail customers even in banks that are mandated to serve only local customers and countries that are only indirectly affected by the crisis. Does the financial crisis affect lending practices in foreign countries with stable economic performance? Do the worst hit banks in these countries reduce their lending? Does the domestic retail customer, e.g., the construction worker in Germany, face credit rationing from their local bank as a result? Or is the decreased credit driven by reduced loan applications on the demand side by consumers? If there are supply effects, which type of credit is affected most? Do bank-depositor relationships help mitigate these effects? These questions are particularly important in the context of retail lending on which there has been relatively little research. In this paper we address these questions by taking advantage of a unique database. Our experimental setting is that of German savings banks, which provide an ideal laboratory to analyze the question of supply side effects on retail customers. Savings banks in Germany are particularly interesting to examine as they are mandated by law to serve only their respective local customers and thus operate in precisely and narrowly defined geographic regions, following a version of “narrow banking”. Total lending and corporate lending by savings banks in Germany kept increasing even after the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007, however 1 Accordingly, a substantial part of the U.S. and global rescue and stimulus packages in response to the crisis is targeted towards providing more credit and tax rebates to retail consumers. 2 retail lending by savings banks showed a slow and continuous decrease. This raises the question of whether the decline in retail credit is due to retail customers demanding less credit or due to savings banks rejecting more loan applications. For the savings banks we have the universe of loan applications made, along with the credit scoring. We also know which loan applications were granted and which were turned down. Hence we are able to directly distinguish between supply and demand effects. This differentiation is important from a policy perspective. We are able to assess the implications of credit rationing for retail customers on which there has been relatively little empirical work. Further, our dataset also allows us to speak to the kinds of loans that are affected most and also assess if relationships help mitigate credit rationing in such situations. The German economy showed reasonable growth and a record-low level of unemployment until 2008. Furthermore, the German housing market did not experience an increase and subsequent decrease and thus did not affect German banks. At the same time, some of the German regional banks (Landesbanken) had large exposure to the U.S. subprime market and were substantially hit in the wake of the financial crisis. These regional banks are in turn owned by the savings banks, which had to make guarantees or equity injections into the affected Landesbanken. We thus have a natural experiment in which we can distinguish between affected savings banks (that own Landesbanken affected by the financial crisis) and other savings banks. Our empirical strategy proceeds as follows. Using a comprehensive dataset of consumer loans for the July 2006 through June 2008 period, we examine whether banks that are affected at the onset of the financial crisis reduce consumer lending more relative to non-affected banks. We are able to distinguish between demand and supply effects. While we find an overall decrease in demand for consumer loans after the beginning of the financial crisis, we do not find significant differences in demand as measured by applications to affected versus unaffected savings banks. We do, however, find evidence for a supply side effect on credit after the onset of the financial crisis. In particular, we find the average rejection rate of affected savings banks is significantly higher than of non-affected savings banks. This result holds particularly true for smaller and more liquidity-constrained banks. Further, we find that this effect is stronger for mortgage as compared to consumer loans. Finally, we consider the change in rejection rates at affected banks 3 after the beginning of the financial crisis by rating class. We find that the rejection rates significantly increase for each rating class and, in particular, for the worst rating classes, but the overall distribution of accepted loans does not change. We next analyze whether bank-depositor relationships affect supply side effects in lending. In particular, we are interested in whether borrowers at affected banks who have a prior relationship with this bank are more likely to receive a loan after the start of the financial crisis. We document a clear benefit to bank-depositor relationships resulting in significantly higher acceptance rates of loan applications by relationship customers in the absence of the financial crisis. Further, while affected banks significantly reduce their acceptance rates during the financial crisis, we find relationships help mitigate the supply side effects on bank lending. Customers with relationships with the affected bank are less likely to have their loans rejected as compared to new customers. Our results are robust to multiple specifications. Our paper adds to the growing literature on the effects of the globalization of banking. Berger, Dai, Ongena, and Smith (2003), Mian (2006), Peek and Rosengren (1997), and Rajan and Zingales (2003) analyze the opportunities and limits of banks entering foreign countries and the effect of foreign banks lending to corporate firms. There has been relatively little research on the effect of globalization on retail lending, and in particular, the effect of small savings banks taking on international exposure on the bank’s local borrowers in the bank’s home country. Our paper provides evidence on this count. We show that borrowers are affected through a direct banking channel when their local bank experiences an adverse shock even when the local bank itself practices “narrow banking” but has exposure in a foreign country through its ownership structure. Our paper also adds to the growing work that tries to understand the real effects of financial crises. Ivashina and Scharfstein (2008), and Chari, Christiano, and Kehoe (2008) study bank lending to corporate firms in the U.S. after the onset of the financial crisis. Duchin, Ozbas, and Sensoy (2008) document a decline in corporate investments as a consequence of tightened credit supply. Our paper presents complementary evidence on the consumer, or retail side, using an experimental setting that enables us to directly distinguish between the demand and supply effects of the financial crisis. Insofar as retail customers do not have access to other financing sources in the same way as corporate customers who can also access public debt or equity 4 markets, if there is a supply side effect of bank lending, it is likely to be particularly important for retail customers. We find evidence of supply side effect on retail lending after the beginning of the financial crisis which is stronger for certain kinds of loans and mitigated by consumerbank relationships. More generally, our paper adds to the broader literature on credit rationing (Stiglitz and Weiss, 1981). While credit rationing has been studied for corporations, there is limited work examining credit rationing for retail loans particularly in times of financial crises. Finally, our paper also speaks to the literature on relationships. While bank-firm relationships are generally considered important (see Petersen and Rajan, 1994; Berger and Udell, 1995), the importance of bank relationships for retail customers has received far less attention. Our evidence suggests that bank-depositor relationships are important in mitigating credit rationing effects in times of financial crises. The rest of the paper is as follows. Section 2 gives the institutional background. Section 3 explains the empirical strategy and proposed methodology. Section 4 describes the data. Section 5 gives the empirical results. Section 6 does robustness checks. Section 7 concludes. 2. Institutional Background and Data A. Savings Banks as the Owners and Guarantors of Landesbanken Savings banks and Landesbanken belong to the group of public banks, which form one of the three pillars of the German banking system. The other two pillars are private banks and cooperative banks. There are 11 Landesbanken in Germany, which cover different federal states. Table 1 provides an overview of the 11 Landesbanken and their respective owners. Each Landesbank is owned by the federal states (Bundesland) in which it is located as well as the savings banks associations in these federal states, which represent all savings banks in these states.2 The ownership of a Landesbank by a specific savings bank is thus solely determined by the regional location of this savings bank; a savings bank cannot become the owner of a different Landesbank in any other state. Table 1 shows that savings banks own a substantial share of their 2 Only recently, outside investors as for example private equity firms (such as J.C. Flowers in HSH Nordbank) became owners of Landesbanken as well. 5 respective Landesbanken. For example, the savings banks association of Bavaria (Sparkassenverband Bayern) holds 50% of Bayern LB, which is the Landesbank in Bavaria. Savings banks are required to provide financial services for customers in their municipality, which is referred to as the regional principle. This principle implies that savings banks are allowed to generate business only in the municipality in which they operate, but not to expand to other regions. In fact, consumer loan applications are rejected if these consumers live in a different municipality. Savings banks have the explicit legal mandate to not maximize profits, but to provide financial access to the community in which they operate and in particular to customers without access to financial services with other financial institutions. The business model of savings banks can thus be regarded as a form of “narrow banking” in which deposits are collected from local customers and then lent only to local customers, while no out-of-area activities are pursued.3 Their traditional customers have thus been small and medium-sized enterprises as well as retail customers, and they require low hurdles for the opening of consumer accounts among all German banks. In several federal states, savings banks are even legally required to open a current account for every applicant on a deposit basis. While Landesbanken differ from each other in their exact scope and scale, they have three common features (Moody’s 2004a). First, Landesbanken serve as the house bank to the federal state in which they are located, e.g. by financing infrastructure projects. Second, Landesbanken cooperate with the savings banks in their region, serve as their clearing bank and support them in particular in wholesale business such as syndicated lending or underwriting. Third, Landesbanken act as commercial banks. Debt by the German public bank sector, i.e. by savings banks and Landesbanken, was traditionally formally guaranteed by the respective public owners. The European Commission and the Federal Republic of Germany finally agreed in 2001 to abolish any formal guarantee by 3 Kobayakawa and Nakamura (2000) survey and examine different proposals of “narrow banking”. They show that the content of these proposals varies substantially although they all use the same expression. In particular, some authors view narrow banks as institutions that only invest in safe assets, while other authors would also allow these banks to lend to small firms. The definition we follow in this paper refers to the latter definition. Savings banks are allowed to give loans to retail and mainly small corporate customers in their local community. At the same time, they are not allowed to pursue investment banking activities so that their exposure to the U.S. subprime markets only stems from their ownership of the Landesbanken. 6 public owners, as it was felt that this put privately owned banks at a disadvantage. Thus, any debt obligation issued by German public banks after July 2005 is not publicly guaranteed in a formal way anymore.4 This is explicitly ruled in the federal states’ savings banks laws. Public ownership and political motivations still play a substantial role in the Landesbanken. For example, politicians chair the supervisory boards of the Landesbanken and are heavily involved in the appointment of the management of the Landesbanken. But even without a formal guarantee by their respective public owners, there are additional support mechanisms for savings banks and Landesbanken. Moody’s (2004a) considers these mechanisms as “giving … a wider mandate than a mere deposit protection scheme, thereby protecting all liabilities of its members and not just deposits.” For the Landesbanken, in principle, there are two support mechanisms, apart from the implicit government guarantee that would prevent a systemically relevant bank from becoming insolvent. First, a Landesbank can rely on horizontal support from the other Landesbanken. However, Moody’s (2004a) is skeptical of this first type of support mechanism and argues that “we believe that both the willingness and capacity of Landesbanken to support each other beyond the means already available in the fund is questionable.” Likewise, Fitch (2007) does not incorporate the horizontal support mechanism in its ratings.5 Second, a Landesbank can rely on vertical support from the savings banks in its region. This support mechanism can take two forms: an informal understanding or a formalized agreement. These formalized agreements between Landesbanken and savings bank associations have been created in eight of the sixteen German federal states: Hesse, Thuringia, Saxony, Bavaria, Lower Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and North Rhine-Westphalia (see Fitch, 2007). But even if no formal agreement between Landesbanken and savings banks exist, the general view is that savings banks would rescue their respective Landesbank. Savings banks are not only owners of Landesbanken, they also profit from the wide range of wholesale business offered by the Landesbank and are likely to want to protect the brand name. Thus, Moody’s (2004a) argues that “savings banks would, for the foreseeable future, support Landesbanken” and 4 The same holds for debt obligations issued between 2001 and 2005 and will mature after 2015. All other debt obligations issued between 2001 and 2005 are still publicly guaranteed (“grandfathering”). 5 Fitch (2007) says: “Hence, for Landesbanks Fitch…does not factor horizontal support into its Landesbank ratings.” 7 incorporates this support mechanism as a rating floor for public banks.6 Overall, risks in the business models of Landesbanken are considered to be larger than risks in the “narrow banking” model of local savings banks, which profit from their strong presence in retail banking. In conclusion, Landesbanken can credibly rely on several support mechanisms. While they lack a formal guarantee by their public owners for recently issued debt obligations, they can still rely on this guarantee for debt obligations issued before 2001 as well as those issued between 2001 and 2005 and maturing before 2015. In addition, they can rely on formalized vertical support mechanisms from their savings banks as one of their major owners. B. The Savings Banks’ Support for Landesbanken in the Financial Crisis Germany’s economy experienced a growth of 2.5% in 2007 and expanded even for a substantial part of 2008. Overall GDP growth for 2008 amounted to 1.3% and became slightly negative only in the second quarter of 2008, while unemployment reached its 16-year low in October 2008. Furthermore and in contrast to many other countries, house prices in Germany have been at most constant over the last decade. In fact, according to the OECD (2008), even in nominal terms they have not increased in any single year since 1999.7 As a consequence, German banks have not been affected by a bubble and subsequent burst in the national real estate market. However, German banks have invested to a substantial extent in the U.S. and are thus affected by the financial crisis that started in the U.S. real estate subprime market. The German banks with the largest exposure in this segment in 2007 were IKB Deutsche Industriebank, which was then partially publicly owned, and Sachsen LB, which was the smallest of the German Landesbanken with total assets of €68 billion. The exposure for each of these two banks amounted to more than €16 billion and thus even exceeded the exposure of significantly larger banks such as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank.8 These two banks are also the first German banks that announced massive problems and had to be rescued in the wake of the financial crisis. IKB was rescued in July 2007 by massive interventions of its owners. 6 More specifically, Moody’s (2004b) argues that “a senior unsecured debt rating of less than A1 is unlikely.” OECD Economic Outlook No. 84 (2008), Annex Table No. 59. 8 Exposure figures are from Moody’s International Structured Finance: EMEA ABCP Market Summary in June 2007. 7 8 Sachsen LB was the first Landesbank to be directly affected by the financial crisis. It was rescued in August 2007 and finally sold to Landesbank Baden-Württemberg so that it ceased to exist as a separate entity after April 2008.9 As shown in Table 1, Sachsen LB was owned by SFG (Sachsen-Finanzgruppe or Saxony Financial Group) which also directly owns eight savings banks in Saxony. Sachsen LB also acts as the wholesale bank for the savings banks in Saxony, and Moody’s (2006) argues that the savings banks in Saxony and Sachsen LB are interdependent and closely linked to each other.10 Thus, the savings banks in Saxony were also directly affected by Sachsen LB’s massive exposure and its subsequent risk of bankruptcy. As a consequence, the minister president of Saxony accepted the political responsibility for the losses at Sachsen LB and finally resigned, which reflects the political nature of the decision processes in Landesbanken. Several other and substantially larger Landesbanken were substantially exposed to risky assets in the summer of 2007 as well, albeit to a lower level. Moody’s (2007) thus concludes in September 2007 that “much of our concern and analysis has focused on German Landesbanks,” as the substantial exposure in combination with “weak profitability and only adequate levels of capitalization” would leave “some Landesbanks potentially vulnerable.” The next two Landesbanken that had to announce massive losses were West LB (with total assets of €285 billion) in November 2007 and Bayern LB (with total assets of €353 billion) in February 2008. Both banks state in their quarterly and annual reports that these losses stem directly from their investments in the U.S. subprime market. While West LB presented an increase in profitability and a positive earnings outlook in its report for the second quarter of 2007, it stated for the third quarter of 2007 that the previous outlook was not valid any more as the subprime crisis had already resulted in write-downs of €355 million. Similarly, Bayern LB, recorded an operating profit of €1 billion for 2007, which was more than offset by subprime losses of €1.9 billion. Both 9 The owners of Sachsen LB had to give a guarantee of €2.75 billion to Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) to convince LBBW to buy Sachsen LB. This is the first-loss guarantee, i.e. the owners of Sachsen LB would have to bear losses of up to €2.75 billion before LBBW would step in for higher losses. Given that the Sachsen LB owners continue to be at risk, we treat the savings banks in Saxony as affected banks for the full period between August 2007 and June 2008. 10 Moody’s (2006) argues: “In preparation for the abolition of support mechanisms in 2005, a strong liquidity compensation procedure was set up within the SFG group, whereby the SFG savings banks provide Sachsen LB with a binding liquidity line of more than €5 billion on a contractual basis.” 9 banks were heavily criticized for revealing this information at a very late stage. In fact, parliamentary control groups later showed that these Landesbanken and their owners knew about their massive subprime losses in the third quarter of 2007 once the U.S. subprime crisis hit. This is the point in time when the owners (savings banks) are likely to have first seen potential consequences of these losses.11 Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW) and HSH Nordbank were the final two Landesbanken that publicly announced losses from the U.S. subprime market, however only in November 2008 and thus after the end of the sample period. While both banks recorded profits for the first half of 2008 and gave a positive outlook for the remainder of the year, they publicly acknowledged losses after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and officially asked for government help in November 2008. Subsequently, we discuss how the timing of these banks’ losses affects our analysis.12 West LB announced the creation of a bad bank with assets worth €23 billion on February 2, 2008 along with guarantees worth €5 billion by the owners. The first losses of up to €2 billion are to be carried by all shareholders according to their ownership stakes, including the savings banks in North Rhine-Westphalia. In particular, as shown in Table 1, the two savings banks associations in North Rhine-Westphalia (Rheinischer Sparkassen- und Giroverband and WestfälischLippischer Sparkassen- und Giroverband) hold more than 50% of West LB. Similarly, Bayern LB announced on February 13, 2008, that it would have to write off about €1.9 billion due to the subprime crisis. As a consequence, the Bavarian savings banks decided on April 24, 2008, with a value-weighted majority of 96.9% to issue a guarantee worth €2.4 billion for the portfolio of asset-backed securities of Bayern LB.13 Similar to Sachsen LB, the losses in Bayern LB also had political consequences. The former chairman of the supervisory board, who was also the Bavarian finance minister until 2007, accepted the responsibility and even apologized to the public and in particular to the employees for not being able to avoid the disastrous losses. Thus, the savings banks in North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria were immediately affected by the 11 http://www.gruene-fraktion-bayern.de/cms/dokumente/dokbin/237/237520.schadensliste_bayernlb.pdf As of September 2009, no other Landesbank is known to have asked for support from the German banking rescue package 13 http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/banken-versicherungen/sparkassen-uebernehmen-garantien-fuerbayernlb;1422114 12 10