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Distribution Category UC-1501 ANL/ESD-41 Evaluation of Electric Vehicle Production and Operating Costs by R.M. Cuenca, L.L. Gaines, and A.D. Vyas Center for Transportation Research, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois 60439 November 1999 Work sponsored by the United States Department of Energy, Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Transportation Technologies This report is printed on recycled paper. Contents Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................... vii Notation .................................................................................................................................... viii Abstract..................................................................................................................................... xi 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 2 Vehicle Manufacturing and Marketing Costs .................................................................... 3 2.1 2.2 2.3 Vehicle Cost Structure .............................................................................................. Costs by Vehicle Component Group ........................................................................ Description of the Basic Methodology ..................................................................... 3 6 7 Costs of Conventional Systems and Components.............................................................. 9 3 3.1 3.2 4 5 Manufacturing Cost Structure of Subcompact Car and Minivan ............................. The Impact of Body Materials .................................................................................. 9 11 Systems and Components for Electric Vehicles ................................................................ 13 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 Energy Storage System ............................................................................................. Powertrain ................................................................................................................. Power Systems and Accessories ............................................................................... HVAC System........................................................................................................... Other Systems ........................................................................................................... Reference .................................................................................................................. 13 14 15 17 17 18 Cost Models for Traction Motors and Controllers............................................................. 19 5.1 19 20 23 26 28 29 30 30 31 33 5.2 5.3 Overview of the Cost Model for Traction Motors.................................................... 5.1.1 AC-Induction Motor ....................................................................................... 5.1.2 Conventional DC Motor ................................................................................. 5.1.3 DC-Brushless Permanent Magnet Motor ....................................................... 5.1.4 Summary of Motor Cost Analysis .................................................................. Motor Controllers ..................................................................................................... 5.2.1 DC Motor Controllers..................................................................................... 5.2.2 AC Motor Controllers..................................................................................... 5.2.3 Cost Model for Motor Controllers.................................................................. References................................................................................................................. iii 6 Costs of EV Battery Production......................................................................................... 35 6.1 6.2 6.3 Battery Materials and Their Costs ............................................................................ Total Costs ................................................................................................................ References................................................................................................................. 36 36 38 The Manufacture of Electric Vehicles ............................................................................... 40 7.1 7.2 EV Conversions ........................................................................................................ Direct OEM Production ............................................................................................ 40 43 Cost Estimates for Selected Vehicles ................................................................................ 45 8.1 8.2 Cost of Subcompact EV or Minivan Based on Existing Vehicle ............................. Cost Analysis of Subcompact EV under Alternative Methods................................. 8.2.1 Subcompact EV Based on a New Design....................................................... 8.2.2 Subcompact EV Assembled from a Glider..................................................... 8.2.3 Subcompact EV Conversion from a CV......................................................... Summary of EV Costs............................................................................................... References................................................................................................................. 45 48 48 49 50 51 53 Lifecycle Ownership Cost Analysis................................................................................... 54 9.1 Operating Costs......................................................................................................... 9.1.1 Energy and Maintenance Costs ...................................................................... 9.1.2 EV Battery Cost.............................................................................................. Amortized Purchase Price......................................................................................... Total Lifecycle Costs ................................................................................................ Other Costs................................................................................................................ Summary of Lifecycle Ownership Cost Analysis..................................................... References................................................................................................................. 54 54 56 58 59 60 60 61 10 Summary and Conclusions................................................................................................. 63 Appendix A: Vehicle Body Materials ................................................................................... 65 Appendix B: Battery Designs and Materials ......................................................................... 69 Appendix C: EV Component Sizing...................................................................................... 79 7 8 8.3 8.4 9 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 Figures 2.1 Allocation of Shares of MSRP ....................................................................................... 4 2.2 Historical MSRP and Dealer Margin for Ford Taurus ................................................... 4 iv 2.3 Historical Dealer Margin as Percentage of MSRP for Ford Taurus............................... 5 5.1 AC-Induction Motor ....................................................................................................... 21 5.2 Conventional DC Motor ................................................................................................. 24 5.3 DC-Brushless Motor ....................................................................................................... 27 6.1 Nickel-Cadmium Battery Costs at Different Production Levels .................................... 38 C.1 Vehicle Speed and Time Relationship during Acceleration........................................... 80 Tables 2.1 Typical Vehicle Manufacturing and Retailing Cost Structure ....................................... 6 2.2 Functional Vehicle Manufacturing and Retailing Cost Structure in the United States ......................................................................................................... 7 Typical CV Production Cost Allocation by Component System and Subsystem ................................................................................................................ 8 3.1 CVs and EVs: Component Groups and Subgroups ........................................................ 10 3.2 Cost Allocation by Group and Subgroup for Conventional Vehicles ............................ 11 5.1 AC-Induction Motor: Material Content and Cost of Components ................................. 22 5.2 AC-Induction Motor: Estimated OEM Cost ................................................................... 23 5.3 Conventional DC Motor: Material Content and Cost of Components ........................... 25 5.4 Conventional DC Motor: Estimated OEM Cost ............................................................. 26 5.5 DC-Brushless Motor: Material Content and Cost of Components................................. 27 5.6 DC-Brushless Motor: Estimated OEM Cost................................................................... 28 5.7 Comparison of Attributes and Costs for Three Traction Motors ................................... 28 5.8 Estimated Cost of Components for 70-kW DC and AC Controllers .............................. 32 5.9 Estimated OEM Cost of 70-kW DC and AC Controllers ............................................... 33 6.1 Battery Comparisons....................................................................................................... 35 2.3 v 6.2 Elements of Battery Cost ................................................................................................ 36 6.3 Estimates of Battery Costs.............................................................................................. 37 8.1 EV Component Costs to OEM........................................................................................ 46 8.2 Estimated MSRP of Electric Subcompact and Minivan Based on Existing Vehicle.............................................................................................. 47 8.3 Estimates of Subcompact EV Cost by Conversion from a CV....................................... 51 8.4 CV and EV MSRP with 15% EV Battery Cost Markup................................................. 52 8.5 CV and EV MSRP with 30% EV Battery Cost Markup................................................. 52 9.1 Estimated Energy and Maintenance Costs of Subcompact CV and EV......................... 56 9.2 Subcompact EV: Initial and Replacement Battery Pack Costs....................................... 58 9.3 Subcompact EV Powertrain Characteristics and Purchase Price ................................... 59 9.4 Lifecycle Ownership Costs of Subcompact CV and EV ................................................ 59 A.1 Mass Reduction Potential and Costs of Lightweight Materials ..................................... 68 B.1 Advanced Lead-Acid Battery Material Costs................................................................. 70 B.2 Sodium-Sulfur Battery Material Costs ........................................................................... 72 B.3 Nickel-Cadmium Battery Material Costs........................................................................ 74 B.4 AB2 Nickel-Metal Hydride Battery Material Costs ........................................................ 75 B.5 AB5 Nickel-Metal Hydride Battery Material Costs ........................................................ 76 C.1 Subcompact EV Physical Characteristics and Design Parameters ................................. 86 C.2 Battery Characteristics for the Subcompact EV ............................................................. 86 C.3 Specific Power and Efficiency Values for Drivetrain Components ............................... 87 vi Acknowledgments The authors thank Philip Patterson of the Office of Transportation Technologies, U.S. Department of Energy, for his consistent support, valuable guidance, and technical input. We appreciate the guidance and repeated technical reviews by Danilo Santini at Argonne, who made himself available whenever we needed him. Thanks are also due to our external reviewers: Analisa Bevan and her staff at the California Air Resources Board; Mark Delucchi and Tim Lipman at the Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis; Jon Lutz at Unique Mobility, Inc.; Ed Kjaer and Dean Taylor at Southern California Edison; and Mark Kosowsky at General Motors. Their constructive comments were very helpful and improved the technical contents of this report. Our technical editor, Floyd Bennett, took pains to put the report in its final form, and Argonne’s Information and Publishing Division staff prepared the manuscript and graphics; we are thankful to them. Although several persons helped make this report possible, the authors are solely responsible for its contents. vii Notation Acronyms AAMA ABC ABS AC ANL CARB CV DC DOE EIA EPA EV FHWA HVAC IC IGBT MOSFET MSRP MY Na-S Ni-Cd Ni-MH NREL OEM OTT Pb-acid PC PM PWM R&D rms RTM SCR SLI SOC viii American Automobile Manufacturers Association Advanced Battery Consortium antilock braking system alternating current Argonne National Laboratory California Air Resources Board conventional vehicle direct current U.S. Department of Energy Energy Information Administration U.S. Environmental Protection Agency electric vehicle Federal Highway Administration heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning internal combustion insulated gate bipolar transistor metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor manufacturer’s suggested retail price model year sodium-sulfur nickel-cadmium nickel-metal hydride National Renewable Energy Laboratory original equipment manufacturer Office of Transportation Technologies lead-acid polymer composite permanent magnet pulse-width modulation research and development root mean square resin transfer molding silicon control rectifier start, light, and ignition state of charge Units Btu in. kWh L lb mpg rpm V W⋅h/kg W⋅h/L British thermal units inch kilowatt-hours liter pound miles per gallon revolutions per minute volt watt-hours per kilogram watt-hours per liter ix x