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Electric Power Distribution Reliability Second Edition © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7567_FM.indd 1 7/29/08 10:36:16 AM POWER ENGINEERING Series Editor H. Lee Willis Quanta Technology Raleigh, North Carolina Advisory Editor Muhammad H. Rashid University of West Florida Pensacola, Florida 1. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, H. Lee Willis 2. Transmission Network Protection: Theory and Practice, Y. G. Paithankar 3. Electrical Insulation in Power Systems, N. H. Malik, A. A. Al-Arainy, and M. I. Qureshi 4. Electrical Power Equipment Maintenance and Testing, Paul Gill 5. Protective Relaying: Principles and Applications, Second Edition, J. Lewis Blackburn 6. Understanding Electric Utilities and De-Regulation, Lorrin Philipson and H. Lee Willis 7. Electrical Power Cable Engineering, William A. Thue 8. Electric Systems, Dynamics, and Stability with Artificial Intelligence Applications, James A. Momoh and Mohamed E. El-Hawary 9. Insulation Coordination for Power Systems, Andrew R. Hileman 10. Distributed Power Generation: Planning and Evaluation, H. Lee Willis and Walter G. Scott 11. Electric Power System Applications of Optimization, James A. Momoh 12. Aging Power Delivery Infrastructures, H. Lee Willis, Gregory V. Welch, and Randall R. Schrieber 13. Restructured Electrical Power Systems: Operation, Trading, and Volatility, Mohammad Shahidehpour and Muwaffaq Alomoush 14. Electric Power Distribution Reliability, Richard E. Brown 15. Computer-Aided Power System Analysis, Ramasamy Natarajan © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7567_FM.indd 2 7/29/08 10:36:17 AM 16. Power System Analysis: Short-Circuit Load Flow and Harmonics, J. C. Das 17. Power Transformers: Principles and Applications, John J. Winders, Jr. 18. Spatial Electric Load Forecasting: Second Edition, Revised and Expanded, H. Lee Willis 19. Dielectrics in Electric Fields, Gorur G. Raju 20. Protection Devices and Systems for High-Voltage Applications, Vladimir Gurevich 21. Electrical Power Cable Engineering, Second Edition, William Thue 22. Vehicular Electric Power Systems: Land, Sea, Air, and Space Vehicles, Ali Emadi, Mehrdad Ehsani, and John Miller 23. Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, Second Edition, H. Lee Willis 24. Power System State Estimation: Theory and Implementation, Ali Abur 25. Transformer Engineering: Design and Practice, S.V. Kulkarni and S. A. Khaparde 26. Power System Capacitors, Ramasamy Natarajan 27. Understanding Electric Utilities and De-regulation: Second Edition, Lorrin Philipson and H. Lee Willis 28. Control and Automation of Electric Power Distribution Systems, James Northcote-Green and Robert G. Wilson 29. Protective Relaying for Power Generation Systems, Donald Reimert 30. Protective Relaying: Principles and Applications, Third Edition, J. Lewis Blackburn and Thomas J. Domin 31. Electric Power Distribution Reliability, Second Edition, Richard E. Brown © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7567_FM.indd 3 7/29/08 10:36:17 AM Electric Power Distribution Reliability Second Edition Richard E. Brown Boca Raton London New York CRC Press is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7567_FM.indd 5 7/29/08 10:36:17 AM CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-8493-7567-5 (Hardcover) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright.com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 7567_FM.indd 6 7/29/08 10:36:17 AM Contents Series Introduction xi Preface xiii Author xvii 1. DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS 1.1. Generation, Transmission, and Distribution 1.2. Distribution Substations 1.3. Primary Distribution Systems 1.4. Secondary Distribution Systems 1.5. Load Characteristics 1.6. Distribution Operations 1.7. Study Questions References 1 1 8 15 26 28 33 38 38 2. RELIABILITY METRICS AND INDICES 2.1. Power Quality, Reliability, and Availability 2.2. Reliability Indices 2.3. Customer Cost of Reliability 2.4. Reliability Targets 2.5. History of Reliability Indices 2.6. Study Questions References 41 41 51 82 90 97 102 102 vii © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC viii Contents 3. INTERRUPTION CAUSES 3.1. Equipment Failures 3.2. Animals 3.3. Severe Weather 3.4. Trees 3.5. Human Factors 3.6. Most Common Causes 3.7. Study Questions References 107 107 127 133 150 155 157 159 159 4. COMPONENT MODELING 4.1. Component Reliability Parameters 4.2. Failure Rates and Bathtub Curves 4.3. Probability Distribution Functions 4.4. Fitting Curves to Measured Data 4.5. Component Reliability Data 4.6. Study Questions References 163 163 165 167 176 182 188 188 5. SYSTEM MODELING 5.1. System Events and System States 5.2. Event Independence 5.3. Network Modeling 5.4. Markov Modeling 5.5. Analytical Simulation for Radial Systems 5.6. Analytical Simulation for Network Systems 5.7. Monte Carlo Simulation 5.8. Other Methodologies 5.9. Study Questions References 191 192 195 196 200 206 232 241 258 261 262 6. SYSTEM ANALYSIS 6.1. Model Reduction 6.2. System Calibration 6.3. System Analysis 6.4. Improving Reliability 6.5. Storm Hardening 6.6. Conversion of Overhead to Underground 6.7. Economic Analysis 6.8. Marginal Benefit-to-Cost Analysis 6.9. Comprehensive Example 6.10. Study Questions References 265 265 272 277 285 301 307 317 325 333 356 357 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Contents ix 7. SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION 7.1. Overview of Optimization 7.2. Discrete Optimization Methods 7.3. Knowledge-Based Systems 7.4. Optimization Applications 7.5. Final Thoughts on Optimization 7.6. Study Questions References 361 361 371 385 392 418 421 422 8. AGING INFRASTRUCTURE 8.1. Equipment Aging 8.2. Equipment Age Profiles 8.3. Population Aging Behavior 8.4. Age and Increasing Failure Rates 8.5. Inspection, Repair, and Replacement 8.6. State of the Industry 8.7. Final Thoughts 8.8. Study Questions References 425 425 426 428 432 438 441 450 451 452 © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Series Introduction Power engineering is the oldest and most traditional of the various areas within electrical engineering, yet no other facet of modern technology is currently undergoing a more dramatic revolution in technology or business structure. Perhaps the most fundamental change taking place in the electric utility industry is the move toward a quantitative basis for the management of service reliability. Traditionally, electric utilities achieved satisfactory customer service quality through the use of more or less “one size fits all situations” standards and criteria that experience had shown would lead to no more than an acceptable level of trouble on their system. Tried and true, these methods succeeded in achieving acceptable service quality. But evolving industry requirements changed the relevance of these methods in two ways. First, the needs of modern electric energy consumers changed. Even into the early 1980s, very short (less than 10 second) interruptions of power had minimal impact on most consumers. Then, utilities routinely performed field switching of feeders in the early morning hours, creating 10-second interruptions of power flow that most consumers would not even notice. But where the synchronous-motor alarm clocks of the 1960s and 1970s would just fall a few seconds behind during such interruptions, modern digital clocks, microelectronic equipment and computers cease working altogether. Homeowners of the 1970s woke up the next morning—not even knowing or caring—that their alarm clocks were a few seconds behind. Homeowners today wake up minutes or hours late, to blinking digital displays throughout their home. In this and in many xi © 2009 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC