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Conflict, Conflict Prevention, Conflict Management and Beyond: a conceptual exploration Niklas L.P. Swanström Mikael S. Weissmann CONCEPT PAPER Summer 2005 Conflict, Conflict Prevention and Conflict Management and beyond: a conceptual exploration Niklas L.P. Swanström Mikael S. Weissmann CONCEPT PAPER Summer 2005 © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Uppsala University, Box 514, 75120 Uppsala, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org 2 “Conflict, Conflict Prevention and Conflict Management and Beyond: A Conceptual Exploration” is a Concept Paper published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. The Concept Paper Series is the Joint Center’s paper series addressing topics and concepts of foremost importance for understanding the dynamics of security, conflicts and development in the region. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program constitute a single, joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center. The Center is independent and externally funded and has offices in Washington, D.C., and Uppsala, Sweden. The Center is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, and the Department of East European Studies, Uppsala University. It is the first Institution of its kind in both Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading center for research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, journalists, and students. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on security, conflicts and development in the region. It further aspires to function as a focal point for American and European academic and policy discussion through its applied research, publications, teaching, research network, and conference and forum activities. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2005 ISBN: 91-85473-02-2 Printed in Uppsala, Sweden Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Ph. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: caci2@jhuadig.admin.jhu.edu Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University Box 514, SE-75120 Uppsala Sweden Ph.. +46-18-471-7155; Fax. +46-18-106397 E-mail: info@silkroadstudies.org Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director, at either of the addresses above. 3 Table of Contents Conflict, Conflict Prevention and Conflict Management and Beyond: A Conceptual Exploration _________________________________________________ 5 SECTION 1: DEFINITION OF CONFLICT AND THE LIFE CYCLE(S) OF A CONFLICT Conflict _______________________________________________________________ 7 Definition of conflict__________________________________________________ 7 The life cycle(s) of a conflict__________________________________________ 9 Different conflict curves _____________________________________________ 15 A development of the single conflict curve model _____________________ 15 The multi-curve model _____________________________________________ 17 SECTION 2: CONFLICT PREVENTION AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT Conflict prevention __________________________________________________ 19 Conflict management ________________________________________________ 23 Conflict management and conflict resolution ___________________________ 25 Conflict management and conflict prevention __________________________ 26 Conflict Prevention, Management and Resolution – the need for an integrated approach? _________________________________________________ 28 Biographical note ____________________________________________________ 30 This paper was written as part of the project “Peace and Security: Conflict Management and Conflict Prevention in Northeast Asia”, funded by the Swedish Research Council (grant 2002-3126) and the project “Conflict and Security in Asia” funded by the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. 4 5 Conflict, Conflict Prevention and Conflict Management and Beyond: a conceptual exploration1 This paper will provide an overview of the concepts conflict, conflict prevention and conflict management. It will also briefly discuss related concepts, including conflict resolution, crisis management, preventive diplomacy, and a culture of prevention. The aim of the paper is to set the stage for a discussion on how to come to terms with the lack of consensus and differences in interpretation of these concepts within the academic and policy community. 2 On a general level, conflict prevention and conflict management are broad terms for methods and mechanisms used to avoid, minimize, and manage conflicts between different parties.3 Conflict prevention is a set of instruments used to prevent or solve disputes before they have developed into active conflicts. 4 Conflict management is a theoretical concept focusing on the limitation, mitigation, and/or containment of a conflict without necessary solving it. 5 Conflict resolution has traditionally referred to measures attempting to resolve the underlying 1 A draft version of this paper was written to provide a starting point for the discussions on the Silk Road Studies Program’s workshop "Theory Development on Conflict Prevention and Conflict Management" organized in Uppsala April 8-9, 2005. The paper you now are reading is a somewhat altered version of the paper presented at the workshop. It should also be noted that this paper is based on, but extends beyond, Dr. Swanström’s dissertation Regional Cooperation and Conflict Management: Lessons from the Pacific Rim (Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, 2002). 2 The problem of a lacking consensus was identified at the Silk Road Studies Conference on Conflict Prevention and Management in Northeast Asia held in Beijing November 26 – 28, 2004. It was also one of the topics of discussion on the Uppsala workshop in April 2005. 3 Bruce Russett, “Preventing Violent Conflict Through the Kantian Peace”, in Preventing Violent Conflicts: Past Record and Future Challenges, ed. Peter Wallensteen, Report No 48 (Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, 1998); Michael Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts (Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996); Niklas L.P. Swanström, Regional Cooperation and Conflict Management: Lessons from the Pacific Rim (Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, 2002); Niklas L.P. Swanström “Conflict Management in Northeast Asia”, Korean Journal of International Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1 (2003); Peter Wallensteen, ed., Preventing Violent Conflicts: Past Record and Future Challenges, Report No 48 (Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, 1998). 4 Sophia Clément, Conflict Prevention in the Balkans: Case Studies of the Fyr Macedonia (Alencon: Institute for Security Studies of WEU, 1997). 5 Fred Tanner, “Conflict Prevention and Conflict Resolution: Limits of Multilateralism”, International Review of the Red Cross, September (2000). 6 incompatibilities of a conflict, including attempts to get the parties to mutually accept each others' existence.6 It is important to note here that the traditional separation of conflict prevention, management and resolution not only treat them as different concepts, but also as separate processes. Such ideas are opposed in this paper, in which also the concepts are seen as being closely related and in many ways even inseparable. This will be elaborated upon in section two of this paper. Before that, however, the definition and dynamics of a conflict needs to be addressed. Consequently, the first section of this paper will focus on the concept of conflict and conflict cycles. After presenting a working definition of conflict, a theoretical model of the conflict lifecycle will be provided. This section also presents an extended model of the conflict lifecycle which includes both the conflict intensity level and measures to prevent, limit and resolve the conflict. This model is thereafter used to elaborate upon different forms of conflict cycles, including addressing the problem with a conflict consisting of a large number of conflictual issues, or subconflicts. In the second section focus moves from the conflict as such to the concepts of conflict prevention and conflict management. This section includes, but is not limited to, an overview of research on conflict prevention and conflict management, including related concepts such as preventive diplomacy, culture of prevention, and crisis management. Thereafter, the section moves on to explore the overlapping and integrated aspects of conflict prevention and conflict management, thereby addressing the necessity of linking the two. To the extent overlapping with the two core concepts, conflict resolution and crisis management will also be addressed in this overview. 6 Peter Wallensteen, Understanding conflict resolution: war, peace and the global system (London: Sage, 2002). 7 SECTION 1: Definition of Conflict and the Life Cycle(s) of a Conflict Conflict Definition of conflict The perception of threat, or actual occurrence of conflict, is necessary for the initiation of conflict prevention or management measures, and hence it is essential to address the concept of conflict before exploring how to prevent and manage such occurrences. The first step is to understand what a conflict is made up by exactly. The starting point for this paper is the traditional definitions of conflicts (presented below), according to which a conflict is the result of opposing interests involving scarce resources, goal divergence and frustration. The paper then addresses more recent perceptions of the conflict concept. We suggest that conflicts should not be defined simply in terms of violence (behavior) or hostility (attitudes), but also include incompatibility or “differences in issue position” (Positiondifferenzen)7 Such a definition is designed to include conflicts outside the traditional military sphere and is based on behavioral dimensions. 7 Ernst-Otto Czempiel, Internationale Politik; Ein Konfliktmodell (Paderborn: Schöningh, 1981), 198-203. 8 According to Mitchell, the Model 1: Mitchell’s Conflict Model conflict structure consists of three parts: attitudes, behavior and situations that interact and create conflicts between actors. 8 Mitchell’s conflict structure simplifies the complex reality in an understandable way (Model 1). The model was created for political and military conflicts, but is also 1. The situation impacts the behavior (failure to reach targeted goals, especially important goals, creates frustration and increases applicable to the changes in the willingness to reach these goals). perception of conflicts that 2. The situation impacts attitudes (incompatible goals increase the suspicion and distrust between the actors). the international 3. Behavior impacts the situation (success can introduce new community has experienced questions in the conflict as demands increases). 4. Behavior impacts the attitudes (destruction increases hatred, - economic, environmental success can impact the group solidarity and the notion of "us"). and human security have 5. Attitudes impact the behavior (expectations such as "our traditional enemies will attack again" will impact the defensive became fundamental planning and preventive actions). 6. Attitudes impact the situation (the longer the conflict continues aspects of international and the more questions will be introduced). regional interaction. Mitchell’s model is able to incorporate this. However, this model is complicated by the fact that conflicts often occur in mixed-motive relationships where the involved parties both have cooperative and competitive goals and Mitchell’s model seems to have neglected this pluralistic/multifaceted/more complex dimension to the relationship. 9 The competitive element creates conflict and the cooperative element creates incentives to negotiate an agreement.10 There are, however, studies that confirm that conflicts tend to occur even when the involved parties have highly compatible goals.11 This can be explained by including frustration, obstruction, and interference in the definition. The theoretical framework presented here has been adjusted to leave room for an interpretation of conflict which 8 C.R.. Mtchell, The Structure of International Conflict (London: Macmillan, 1981), 55. Kwok Leung and Dean Tjosvold, Conflict Management in the Asia Pacific: Assumptions and Approaches in Diverse Cultures (Singapore: John Wiley & Sons, 1998); Walton, R. and R. Mckersie, A Behavioural Theory of Labour Negotiations (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1965). 10 M. Deutsch and M. Krauss, “Studies in interpersonal bargaining”, Journal of Conflicr Resolotion, vol 6 (1962). 11 M. Deutsch, The Resolution of Conflict (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1973). 9