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CLIMATE VARIABILITY – SOME ASPECTS, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS Edited by Abdel Hannachi Climate Variability – Some Aspects, Challenges and Prospects Edited by Abdel Hannachi Published by InTech Janeza Trdine 9, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia Copyright © 2011 InTech All chapters are Open Access distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license, which allows users to download, copy and build upon published articles even for commercial purposes, as long as the author and publisher are properly credited, which ensures maximum dissemination and a wider impact of our publications. After this work has been published by InTech, authors have the right to republish it, in whole or part, in any publication of which they are the author, and to make other personal use of the work. Any republication, referencing or personal use of the work must explicitly identify the original source. As for readers, this license allows users to download, copy and build upon published chapters even for commercial purposes, as long as the author and publisher are properly credited, which ensures maximum dissemination and a wider impact of our publications. Notice Statements and opinions expressed in the chapters are these of the individual contributors and not necessarily those of the editors or publisher. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of information contained in the published chapters. The publisher assumes no responsibility for any damage or injury to persons or property arising out of the use of any materials, instructions, methods or ideas contained in the book. Publishing Process Manager Oliver Kurelic Technical Editor Teodora Smiljanic Cover Designer InTech Design Team First published December, 2011 Printed in Croatia A free online edition of this book is available at www.intechopen.com Additional hard copies can be obtained from orders@intechweb.org Climate Variability – Some Aspects, Challenges and Prospects, Edited by Abdel Hannachi p. cm. ISBN 978-953-307-699-7 free online editions of InTech Books and Journals can be found at www.intechopen.com Contents Preface IX Part 1 Atmospheric Variability 1 Chapter 1 Atmospheric Low Frequency Variability: The Examples of the North Atlantic and the Indian Monsoon 3 Abdel Hannachi, Tim Woollings and Andy Turner Chapter 2 Impact of Atmospheric Variability on Soil Moisture-Precipitation Coupling 17 Jiangfeng Wei, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Zhichang Guo and Li Zhang Part 2 Chapter 3 Part 3 Climate and Solar Activity 37 Solar Activity, Space Weather and the Earth’s Climate 39 Maxim Ogurtsov, Markus Lindholm and Risto Jalkanen Climate and ENSO 73 Chapter 4 Assimilating Ocean Observation Data for ENSO Monitoring and Forecasting 75 Yosuke Fujii, Masafumi Kamachi, Toshiyuki Nakaegawa, Tamaki Yasuda, Goro Yamanaka, Takahiro Toyoda, Kentaro Ando and Satoshi Matsumoto Chapter 5 ENSO-Type Wind Stress Field Influence over Global Ocean Volume and Heat Transports Luiz Paulo de Freitas Assad Part 4 Rainfall and Drought Assessment 121 Chapter 6 Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate Isabella Bordi and Alfonso Sutera Chapter 7 Seasonal Summer Rainfall Prediction in Bermejo River Basin in Argentina 141 Marcela H. González and Ana María Murgida 123 99 VI Contents Part 5 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Adaptation Issues and Climate Variability and Change 161 Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries: Beyond Rhetoric Aondover Tarhule 163 Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change: Capacity Building Through Technological Innovation 181 Netra B. Chhetri Preface We are all familiar with the fascinating and ever changing weather. But as we grow older the memories we keep about weather is an accumulation of events. What we remember of weather after a long period of time, say few decades, is simply climate. Climate is in fact the statistics of weather, and as put by Ed Lorenz, climate, in mathematical terms, is the collection of all long-term statistical properties of the atmospheric state. Climate varies on a wide range of scales both temporal and spatial, and we often talk about local, regional or global climate, but also decadal climate variability and long term trends. Climate is a complex high-dimensional system involving highly nonlinear interactions between many processes. Climate variation is controlled by external factors such as the solar activity, eg the 11-year cycle, and cyclic variations in Earth's orbital parameters and also internal factors such as anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases. Weather and climate variability (and change) has great impact on our society as well as the environment. There is a large wealth of scientific literature on climate variability and change and its impact on the infrastructure and society. This book explores various perspectives about climate variability and change but is not meant to cover all aspects of the problem. The chapters in this book are divided into five sections. Section 1 consists of two chapters related to low frequency atmospheric variability. the first chapter provides a general but short review of the aspect of climate variabilitiy in two different climate regions: the North Atlantic/European sector in the extratropics and the Indian monsoon region in the tropics. Despite their climatic differences the two regions share common features related to nonlinearity where the atmospheric variability on intraseasonal time scales is characterised by an on-off switching between different weather regimes. Chapter 2 explores the land-atmosphere coupling strength using an ensemble of general circulation models from the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment. Lowfrequency atmospheric variability plays an important role in land-atmosphere coupling and precipitation predictability. Section 2 consists of one chapter and explores the connection between solar activity and space weather and Earth's climate. Chapter 3 discusses both the supportive and controversial arguments of the solar effect on Earth's climate, and presents a different perspective to climate change. X Preface Section 3 consists of two chapters related to one of the most important modes of climate variability: the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Chapter 4 discusses the benefits and prospects of ocean observation data asimilation for ENSO monitoring and seasonal forecasting. The quasi-coupled data assimilation system shows significant skill improvement of seasonal ENSO and atmospheric forecasting. Chapter 5 analyses the effect of one typical ENSO-type wind stress on the volume and heat transport variability in the world ocean. This type of wind stress can affect not only the mixed layer and the thermocline but also the thermohaline circulation. Section 4 consists of two chapters and is devoted to rainfall, an important component of climate variability. Chapter 6 explores ways of assessing drought with particular application to Europe. The detrending method as well as the choice of the reference calibration period affect the sensitivity of drought assessment. Chapter 7 discusses a particular example of seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in the Bermejo river basin in Argentina. The southern annular mode phase and the Atlantic High have the most effect on summer rainfall in that region. Section 5, with two chapters, is devoted to the adaptation to climate variability and change. Chapter 8 provides a review of adaptation strategies to face the risk of future climate change with a particular focus on the African continent. It summarizes the context of adaptation in a varying climate as opposed to a changing climate, and provides recommendations on the implementation strategy. Chapter 9 presents a succinct review of the process of technological change of innovation and its relation to a varying climate. It provides a new perspective to climate adaptation by taking into account environmental technology. Abdel Hannachi Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Sweden