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TMtnmng rAi CHim ^ $ Nhu'ng thuan Igi va kho khan trong qua trinh cho vay ho trg lai suat $ Car scr cho vi^c ra dai Quy bao vf ngu'd'i tham gia bao hiem tai Vift Nam Che vay he I r e lai sudU SAO CHO HIEU QUA? PGS., TS. PHAM QUANG TRUNG Pho Hieu trw&ng Trir&ng Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan Chinh phu Viet Nam dd thdng qua "gdi kich thich kinh te" khd ldm, vdo khodng 6 ty USD, gom: gidm, gidn thue; tdi tra Idi sud't 4% cho vay vd'n luu ddng; ddu tu cdng, ehi an sinh xd hdi. Den thdi diim hien tgi, ben cgnh nhimg tdc ddng tich cue, qud trinh triin khai cho vay ho tra Idi sudt ciing da gap mot sd'vu&ng mdc. Di trien khai cho vay ho tro Idi sud't cd hieu qud, mdt so gidi phdp nhu tdng eudng su tham gia cua khdi cdc NHTMCP trong gdi eho vay hd tra Idi sud't, tie'p tue xic ly tdi ca cdu na trong cdc NHTM, cdi thien co che thdng tin... cdn duoc ddc biet chu y. Bdi cdnh thvc thi goi kich thich kinh te Khung hoang tdi chinb toan ciu da tie ddng sdu sic d i n toan bd n i n kinh te t h i gidi, dae biet Id eae thi trudng tai ehinh. Theo sd lieu sobd, tang Kucpng kmh te Viet Nam quy 1/2009 Id 3,1%, miie thap nhat ke tir mudi nam qua. Nhung khu vuc chiu sy suy giam manh n h i t Id xua't khau, sin xudt cdng nghiep va khu vuc FDI. Du bao, tang trudng quy 11/2009 ed t h i dat miie 4-4,5%, Quy III/2009 Id 5-5,5% vd quy rV/2009 li 5,5-6%. Tinh ehung ea nam 2009, tang trudng kinh t l ed the dat miic Ken dudi 5%. Theo TS. Le Xudn Nghia, neu tang Kucpng kinh i l b i n g quy diing nhu d y bdo Ken thi day suy giim kinh t l nude ta ed le Ii quy I vd mdt p h i n quy 11/2009. Trong bdi cinh kinh t l toin eau hien nay, nhirng ehi Heu n h u Ken dii sao vdn dupe coi li nhung Ha sdng. Chinh phii Viet Nam da thdng qua "gdi kich thich kinh t l " 46 khd Icpn, vdo khoing 6 ty USD, tuong duong 7,5% GDP nam 2008, gdm: gidm, gian thul; tai Kp Iai suit 4% cho vay vdn luu ddng; d i u tu cdng, ehi an sinh xa hdi. Bio lanh tin dung cho doanh nghiep eiing dupe xem Id mdt hudng giii phap kich ciu ed tinh kha thi. Cde danh mue kich thich kinh t l duepe Kien khai khan truong, dae biet la bd Kp Iai suit v i giim, gian thue. Gdi d i u tu cdng v l CO bin da phdn bd xong ngudn Hin. Bdn eanh dd, eae giii phdp tai Kp an sinh xa bdi da va dang ducpc thyc hien nhu dilu chinh lucmg, bao h i i m that nghiep, tai Kp viec lam. Trong giai doan dau Hen, gdi tdi Kp lai sud't 4% chi dp dung eho vd'n luu ddng, do dd ban e h i tae ddng ddi vcii linh vuc xay dung CO ban vd phdt trien co sd ha ting. Nhiiu nha kinb t l eho ring, thdi diem bien tai dang Id CO hdi td't nhd't d l ddi mdi cdng nghe, ky thuat vdi chi phi thap v i Ki cham nhdm ndng eao nang lue eanh Kanh Kong tuong Iai. Viee Kiln khai gdi hd Kp Iai suit khdng thi tdeh rdi viee thye thi ehinh sdch Hin te vd ehinh saeh tai khod. Trude mit, Ngdn bang Nhd nude (NHNN) da va dang Hep tue d i l u chinh ehinh saeh Hin te theo hudng ndi Idng mdt each linh boat, tang eung Hin cd kiem sodt va khdng gay ra edc dot biln. Nam 2007, eung Hin cho n i n kinh te tang 43%, du n a Kn dung tdng 54%, song, nam 2008, eung Kin ehi tang 16,3%, d u n p Kn dung tang 21%. Thi Kudng Hen te - tin dung tbdi gian qua da ed nhirng diln biln hit siic khd ludng, ludn xudt hien eae yeu td mcpi n i m ngodi d u doan. Ndm 2008, tbi Kudng Hn dung ndng len vdi su gia tdng ky lue eiia cdc miic lai suit. Thdm ehi, ed giai doan lai sud't duepc day len d i n 21% -22%/nam. Nhiiu ngudi d y dodn Hnh Kang mat thanh k h o i n eua eae ngdn, hdng thuong mai (NHTM) se diln ra nang n l , keo ddi vdi cdc muc lai s u i t eao Kong nhiiu thdng. Tuy nhien, vdi tdc dpng Tii chinh THANG e/2(X>9 so Dir THirC HIEN CHO VAY HO TRC LAI SUAT TINH DEN NGAY 7/5/2009 So dy (ty dong) Chi tieu i' Tyie T6ng mirc cho vay H6 trg lai sudt Trong d6: 276.673.17 100,00% - Nh6m NHTM nhJi nude & Quy fin dung ND 198.814,04 71.86% - Nhom NHTM Co phan 60.281,51 21,79% - Nhdm NH li§n doanh, NH nude ngoai 11.839,76 4,28% - Nhom Cong ty tai chinh 1.007,95 3,64% aia ehinh saeh ndi Idng Hin te, Iai suit bmh quan Ken thi Kudng tin dung da ha xudng nhanh hon dy doan vd h i u hit eae NHTM da duy Ki dupe kha nang thanh toan. Din quy 1/2009, thi Kudng Hen te da dupe kiem soat kha hpp ly, mIm deo hon va ed van ddng Hch eye Kong bdi canh thye thi chinh saeh chdng suy giim kinh te. ed mdt sd dau hieu eai thien Hch eye, song van dang Kong Hnh Kang tuong ddi khd khan, giao dieh Kim ling, chua ed su phue hdi dang kl. N h u mdt bude di Hep theo, ngay 04/4/2009, Thii Krdng Chinb phii da ed Quyet dinh sd 443/QD-TTg ve viee bd Kplai suit ebo cac td ebiie, ea nhan vay vd'n Kung, dai han d l thyc hien d i u tu mdi, phat trien san xua't kinh doanh, kit ciu ha ting. Cae ddi tupng thye hien bd trp lai suit la cac ngan bang thuong mai (NHTM), nbu quy dinh tai Quye't dinh sd 131 trudc dd, eae cdng ty tai chinh theo quy dinh tai Quyet dinh so 333. Ngoai ra, Ngan bang Phat trien Viet Nam dupe thyc hien bd Kp lai suit ebo eae dd'i tupng ebo vay uu dai vdi eae mue lai suit bd Kpquy dinh. Ddi tupng dp dung eua ehinh saeh mdi nay la eae khoan vay Kung, dai ban bang VND (theo cac hpp ddng tin dung ky kit trudc va sau ngiy 1 /4/2009 eua cac td ebiic, ea nhan thye bien d i u tu mdi d l phat Kien sin xuit kinh doanh, kit ciu ha ting) dupe thye bien theo quy dinh eua NHNN vl che dp bao eao thdng ke thudc eae nganh va linb vuc kinh te. Theo Quylt dinh 443, nguyen tic hd trp Iai suit la eae NHTM, Ngdn hang Phat Kiln Viet Nam, cdng ty tdi chinb cho vay vdn trung, dai ban de thye hien d i u tu mdi phdt Kiln sin xua't kinh doanh, kit eau ha ting theo co e h i eho vay thdng thudng, thue hien hd Kp lai suit theo diing quy dinh ciia Thu tudng Chinh phu va hudng d i n eiia NHNN. Thdi ban vay dupe hd Kp lai suit tdi da la 24 thdng. Viee hd Kp lai suit dupe thue hien tir ngay 1/4/2009 d i n ngdy 31/12/2011. Miie lai suit hd Kp tiln vay la 4%/nam, Hnh tren sd Hin vay vd thdi ban eho vay thue t l trong khoing thdi gian ndi Ken. Tdc dong tich cue v d nhung w d n g mdc trong qud t r i n h cho vay hd t r o Idi sudt Cae giai phdp kich eau can phai ed thdi gian de phat huy tdc dung. Tuy nhien, den thang 4/2009 da xua't hien nhung diu hieu rit kha quan, ebo tha'y nhiing tae dpng tdt eiia gdi giai phap chdng suy thoai kinh t l a i a Chinb phu. Cd the neu tdm tit nhu sau: Thii nhd't: Diln bien eua mdt bdng Iai suit da kha hpp ly va thue day ludng vdn d i u Kr vao s i n xuat kinh doanh. Mue lai suit huy dpng ky ban 12 thang phd biln d mue 8% 8,5%/nam (thang 3/20009). Lai s u i t cho vay nhddd tuong ddi dn dinh, phd bien d mue 10-12%/nam, Kir cac Kudng hpp dae biet. Thic hai: Diln biln ty gia bdi doai (VND/USD) dupe kiem soat v i dilu chinh "mIm" theo hudng ed lpi eho xuit khau. Ty gia ed thay ddi nhung Kong bien dp chip nhan dupe v i hau nhu it gay dpt biln so vdi nam 20072008. Thii ba: TTCK ed dd'u hieu hdi phue, VN Index ngdy 25/5/2009 dat hon 420 dilm, nhu vay tang khoang 80% so vdi miie thip nhat (235 dilm). Tinh thanh khodn vd tdm ly Ken thi trudng tai chinh da ed diln biln Hch eye, nilm Hn dupe eai thien rd net so vdi d i u nam 2009. Vdi tu each Id ban thir bilu tdm ly Ken tbi Kudng tii chinh, sy phuc hdi cua VN-Index phin inh ky vpng Hch eye vao khi nang phue bdi kinh tl. Tint tw. Tbi trudng bit dpng san da Tii chinh T H A N G 6/2009 Theo NHNN Viet Nam, tdng du no eho vay hd trp lai suit d i n ngay 7/5/2009 la 276.673 t>'' ddng. Trong dd, du np eho vay ciia nhdm NHTM nha nude va Quy Hn dung nhan dan Trung uong la 198.814 ty' ddng; nhdm NHTMCP la 60.281 ty' ddng; nhdm ngan bang lien doanh, chi nhanh ngan hang nude ngoai va ngan hang 100"'o vd'n nude ngoai la 11.839 ty ddng; cdng ty tai chinb la 1.007 ty' ddng Ben eanh nhirng tae ddng Heb cue, qua Kinb Kiln khai ebo vay bd Kp lai suit ciing da gap mdt so vudng mic sau: - Trong bdi eanh tbi trudng t b i gidi sut giam nghiem trpng va tae ddng Kye Hep de'n linb vuc xuit khiu eiia nhieu nganh trong nude, ehiing ta bude phai dieu cbinb chien lupe thi Kudng theo budng khai thae manh me nhu ciu Kong nude. Tuy nhien, eae nhdm ddi tupng bi anh budng manh nhit Kr suy giam kinh te la cdng nhan, dien hinh la cdng nhan lam viee tai eae khu cdng ngbiep, ngudi ed thu nhap thap, ndng dan (ehiem Ken 60% dan so') nhat la ngudi dan viing sau, viing xa, vung ed nhieu khd khan. Tren thye tl, viee dua ludng Hen kich ciu vdo cde khu vye ndng thdn, vimg sau, vimg xa thudng gap nhiiu khd khan va bieu qua lan tod khdng Idn so vdi khu vye cdng ngbiep. - Thu tue d i u tu Kong xay dyng eo b i n cdn rudm rd, pbiie tap, gay bieu qua thip. Nhiiu d y an tbdi gian qua giii ngan cham, nbilu ngudn vdn nbu Kai phie'u giao due trien khai cham, van d l thanh toan, van bin pbap quy edn chdng cheo... - Su suy thoai eua TTCK Kong nude da tae ddng rit Idn de'n nbilu doanh nghiep, dae biet Id cdc cdng ty ed phan. Nbilu cdng ty niem yet va cae cdng ty dai chiing da khdng the buy ddng dupe vd'n tu d i u nam 2008 ebo d i n nay. - Trong qud Kinh thye hien ebo vay bd Kp lai suit, xua't bien bien tupng "dio np" (khdng cdng khai) eiia mdt sd doanh ngbiep n h i m budng lpi tir khoan vay lai suit thip. Mdt sd doanh nghiep da vay vdi lai suit eao trong nam 2008 (ed the lai suit vay eao tdi Ken 20% -21%/nam) se Hm each tra np eu bing chinh khoan tien vay mdi. Day Id mdt ebi Hit ein dupe nghien cuu de kiem soat tdt sy van dpng thyc su eiia ludng Hen dupe giai ngan vao sin xuat kinb doanh nhim ngan chan .suy giam kinh te. - Thdi gian thue bipn ebo \ay bd try 47 ^ T H I T R i r O N R TAI PHINH Idi suit cho tbiy, mdt so ngan bang thuong mai ed tdm ly Io ngai bi thanh tra eae hd so cho vay. Cae doanh ngbiep dupe vay pbii phii hpp vdi ddi tupng quy dinh. Ne'u bd so ebo vay khdng dupe thanh Ka N H N N c h i p nhan tbi ngan bang ebo vay gap rui ro, ed the khdng dupe nhan khoan k h i u Kir lai suit 4% theo quy dinh. - Nhilu doanh ngbiep gap khd khan Kong Hep can vd'n vay hd Kp lai s u i t vi khdng dat chuan vay (doanh nghiep khdng dii Heu chuan theo quy dinh de ngan hang eho vay). Theo dng Vii Duy Thai (Hiep hdi Cdng thuong TP Ha Npi): "Cd nhiing doanh ngbiep gap khd khan, ehua "chit hdn" dang rat cin vdn nhung lai khd long vay vdn dupe vi khdng du dilu kien d l ra". N h u vay, hieu q u i hd trp lai s u i t khdng de'n dupe ddng d i o doanh nghiep Nhilu y kiln Hi phia eae NHTM ebo ring, mudn nhieu doanh nghiep dupe bd Kp thi N H N N pbii eho phep cdc NHTM ba thap mot so dieu kien cho vay. Cd nhu vay, khoin hd Kp mdi de'n dupe vdi doanh nghiep dang cd nhiing khd khan tam tbdi, chua du dilu kien vay. Tuy nhien, n l u ha t h i p Heu chuan thi ed nguy co gia tang n p xau va day nii ro Hn dung len miie eao. - VI thii tue, theo Quy dinh eua NHNN, kbi thye hien giim Kir lai Hin vay bd trplai suit ebo khach bang, eae ngan bing pbii lap "Giiy xae nhan hd trp lai suit". Giay xde nhan dupe lap ddi vdi timg lan thu lai eho vay va giam Ku sd lai Hen vay dupe hd Kp Iai s u i t hoac theo dinh ky hang thang. Day la mpt trong nhirng chiing tir de kiem tra, giam sat va lap bao eao Hnh hinh thye hien hd Kp lai suit. Khi thanh toan lai suit va vd'n vay, d l dupe hd Kp lai suit, cac doanh nghiep phai ed tit ci eae giiy td kinh doanh nbu hda dem, chung tir Hen quan den Hen thanh toan tir khoan vay de chiing minh vdn sir dung diing muc dich. N l u doanh ngbiep khdng chiing minh dupe vdn sii dung diing muc dich bay bi phit hien sir dung vdn sai mue dieh se bi dimg eho vay. N H N N ciiiig yeu cau edc NHTM phii theo ddi bang ngiy sd du np ebo vay dupe bd Kp lai suit. Tren thyc tl, vi nhiing ly do khac nhau, ed mdt sd doanh ngbiep ebo biet da gap nbiing khd khan vl tbii tuc khi Hip can ngudn vdn vay bd Kp lai suit. - Ddi vdi nginh thuy san, viec trien khai cho vay bd tra lai suit eiing edn gap mdt sd khd khan vl co e h i thu tue. Nhilu doanh nghiep vd hd nudi ea Ka d ddng b i n g Sdng Ciiu Long eho bilH Ngan h i n g yeu ciu ben vay phii xud't Kinh hop ddng bao Heu sin pham nhu mdt dilu kien de dupe vay vdn hd Kp lai suit. Yeu ciu nay la phii hpp vdi nghiep vu quan Ki nii ro tin dung ma eae ngan hang ein xem xet. Tuy nhien, hien nay tren thyc te, nhilu doanh nghiep khdng t h i xudt Kinh ngay eae hpp ddng bao Heu d i u ra, mac dii kha nang Heu thu s i n pham la rat kha quan. Nen chang cd giai phdp thay t h i de thao gd khd khan eho cac doanh nghiep va hd gia dinh nudi ea Ka gidng, n h i t la khi hp dang gap khd khan nhu bien nay, bdi day la mpt linh vye sin xua't kmh doanh ddng gdp kha Idn vao kim ngach xuit khau cua ei nude. Mot sd gidi phdp trien khai cho vay hd tro Idi sudt cd hieu qud 1. Cin tang eudng sy tham gia eua khdi cac NHTMCP Kong gdi eho vay hd Kp Iai suit. Ty Kpng du npcho vay hd Kp lai suit ciia khdi nay mdi chiem 21,7% so vdi tdng so d u n p da thuc hien, mdc dii Him nang eua toan bd eae NHTMCP edn rat Idn. Lanh dao eua mdt sd NHTMCP eho bilt, cac ngan bang vin cd sy e ngai v l thu tuc vd tham dinh eua N H N N ddi vdi cac hpp ddng ebo vay bd Kp lai suit nen tham gia ehua that eao nhu mue ed the. Do dd, ein tie'p tue thao gd eae van d l mang tinh tbii tue, ky thuat de eae NHTMCP vao cude manh me hon. Khdi cac cdng ty tai chinb (mdi ehiem 3,64% du n p eho vay hd trp lai suit) ciing can dupe chii y tao dieu kien de ed the tham gia manh me bon Kong qua trinh trien khai gdi kich ciu eua Chinh pbii. 2. Tilp tue nghien ciiu xii ly tdi co eau n p trong eae NHTM theo hudng linh boat, chip nhan sy dilu chinh Iai suit theo Hn hieu thi trudng. Vin d l Ka n a cii de vay n o mdi eua mdt sd doanh nghiep vin ehua ed giai phdp rd rang, mac du N H N N eho biet khdng c h i p nhan " d i o np". Tuy nbien, Kong dilu kien tbi trudng dac biet nhu hien nay, can thing thin nhin nhan hien tupng tai cacdu n o theo quan dilm linh boat hon, de cic ngan hang Kinh bi roi vio trang thai eung ung tin dung sai quy dinh bode bi gd eiing, mat di Hnh linh boat trong boat ddng cung ling tin dung cho thj Kudng. 3. Cai thien cache thdng Hn Ken thi Kudng n h i m tang eudng Idng tin eua ngudi Heu diing va ban c b i cac Hn ddn that thiet, cd the gay ra cdc con sdt vd d i u CO "Hn vit" gay nhieu loan thi Kudng. Dae biet la vdi eae thi trudng nhay cam n h u thi trudng ngoai hdi, thi trudng vang, TTCK. Ddi vdi TTCK, ein Hep tue hodn thien co e h i q u i n ly thi trudng, minh bach thdng tin, bdo ve lpi ieh ehinh dang eua eae nha dau tu; Nen Hep tue tao ddng luc cho TTCK thdng qua viee gian v i miin t h u l thu nhap ea nhan Kong d i u tu chiing khodn Kong 2 nam 2009-2010; Tao thuan Ipi d l edc cdng ty niem y l t vd cdng ty ed phan ndi ehung nang eao Hnh hd'p d i n ciia c6 philu, nhd dd ed the huy ddng vdn Ken TTCK. Kich Kiich TTCK phue hdi se cd tae ddng Hch cue de'n toan bd thi Kudng tai ehinh, thi trucmg b i t ddng s i n va thi Kudng hang Heu dung. 4. C i n Kiln khai td't Quye't dinh sd 443/QD-TTg ngay 4/4/2009 eua Thii tudng Cbinb phu v l viee bd Kolai suit eho cae td ehiic, cd nhdn vay vd'n trung, dai ban ngan bang de thye hien d i u tu mdi, phat trien s i n xuit kinh doanh, kit eau ha ting. C i n thyc sy hudng ludng tiln vao khu vuc xay dyng va nganh vat lieu xay dung (xi mang, sit thep, gaeh ngdi, vat lieu xdy dyng khdc). Theo danh gid vd phdn Hch Ken thue te, n l u ludng vd'n hd Kp lai suit 4% eua Chinh phii dupe rdt vao khu vuc xay d u n g thi tdc dpng nhan bdi (Multiplier impact) ciia so vd'n nay se Idn hon nhilu nganh khae, tao ra dupe nhilu viee Idm vd thu nhap cho chudi s i n xuat, dieh vu ed Hen quan. Cdc doanh nghiep s i n xua't vat lieu xay dung se duy Ki dupe sdn xuit vd thu nhap, den lupt minh, se tao them siie ciu ndi dia ebo cdc doanh ngbiep eung ung khae. 5. C i n Hep tue thuan Ipi hoa q u i Kinb Hep can eae ngudn vdn, don gian hda quy trinh thu tue cho doanh nghiep vay vd'n. Kiln nghi siia mpt sd dilu ciia Luat D i u tu, Luat Xdy dyng, Ludt D i t dai...dl tao dilu kien thdng thoang vd hieu qua cho cdc boat ddng d i u tu vd tang nhanh tdc dp giii ngdn. Trong mdt sd trudng hpp dae thii (nhu eho vay hd trp doanh nghiep nudi ed Ka gidng d ddng bang Sdng Ciiu Long) thi N H N N nen eho phep cde NHTM sii dung cac cdng eu thay t h i bdo dam • Xem tiep tr. 62 Tii chinh THANG 6/2009 TAI CHINH Ol\f)C T P A Hhi N H A P Tdi lien tham BIEU 0 0 2: LU-CTNG KIEU HOI QUA CAC NAM (TRI$U USD) 4.700 Ngudn: long cue thdng ke 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 t l vd an sinh xa hdi, Viet N a m cdn di sau Trung Qudc kha nbilu. Vi vay, ed ly do de tin tudng ngudi Viet Nam se cdn Hep tue duy tri mdt ty le tilt kiem eao Kong thdi gian tdi. Nhan dinh tren diing vdi xu h u d n g dupe t h i hien tren b i l u dd 1. Nhin ehung miie tilt kiem eua ngudi ddn Viet Nam dang trong xu hudng tang vd ehua cd dd'u hieu d i o ehilu. Giai doan 2001-2003, Hit kiem cd giam xudng la do tae ddng eiia chinh saeh kich c i u 1999-2003, lam ebo ty le tieu dimg ciia bd gia dinh tdng len. Tuy nbien, de duy Ki xu hudng tang eudng tiet kiem n i y , Chinh pbii can h i t siic chii y tdi bai phuong dien xa hdi: Mpt Ii, can cd bien p h a p tang eudng niem tin eiia dan ehiing ddi vdi Chinh phu. Cd n h u vdy, ngudi d a n mdi tie'p tue ung hp nbiing bien p h a p va ehinh sdch thiic day tilt kiem eua Chinh phu. Chinh phii c i n dae biet chii y tdi cdng cupc chdng tham nbiing, lang phi, cii each hanh chinb d l don gian boa tbii tuc vi d a y la nhiing van d l gay biic xiie n h i t ddi vdi ngudi dan. Hai Id, ciing vdi nhung Hen bd v l kinh t l , ddi sdng nhdn d a n dupe eai thien mdt budc. Mdt trao luu tieu diing da vd dang xud't hien, the hien qua viee nhap khau may bay cd nhan, d td d i t Hen, qua viec biing nd di du lich v i k h i m ehiia benh d n u d c ngoai, qua viec biing nd eae nha b i n g v i dja d i l m an ud'ng v.v... N l u khdng ed nhiing ehinh sdch phii h p p va n i n tang giao due e i n thilt, trao luu Heu dimg n i y se thieu rui y thue Hit kiem ciia ngudi ddn. Ngoai ra, can luu y li trong p h i n thu nhap ciia bd gia dinh, Hen luong v i ed tinh chat luong ehi ehiem 62 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 khoang tren 80%. Cae khoan chuyen n h u p n g hien hanh, trong dd p h a n Idn Id k i l u hdi chiem tdi tren 15% trong n a m 2007. Trong giai d o a n 1995 - 2006, ed 23,4 ty USD kieu hdi dupe chuyen v l nude b i n g 3 1 % n g u d n v d n FDI vd Idn h o n n g u d n ODA giii ngan. Lupng kilu hdi tang m a n h len 5,5 ty USD vao n a m 2007 va 8 ty USD vdo n a m 2008. Chinh saeh thu hiit kilu hdi eua Viet Nam nhiing nam g i n day la h i t siie thdng thoang. Ngudi d a n hoan toan cdng khai, minh bach nhan tiln k i l u hdi e h u y i n qua be thdng ngan b i n g ma khdng phai giii trinh hay nop bat cii loai thue ndo. Tuy nhien, cdi nhd nude e i n ldm khdng ehi la tao s u thdng thoang eho ddng kilu hdi chiy v l ma phai khoi dupe tinh c i m va s y g i n bd eiia bd phdn ngudi Viet N a m dinh eu d nude ngodi, Iam eho hp thay tu hao vd ed trdch nhiem ciing n h u q u y l n lpi khi cd ddng gdp cho td qud'e thdng qua kilu hdi. • Tiep theo tr. 48 ludng Kin Kd np. C h i n g ban, ed the chap nhan bdng eae tdi lieu ddnh gia Hn dung k i t hpp vdi tin chap eua dia phuong. N l u n b u tinb khi thi vd hieu q u i khoin vay dupe phan Hch rd rang thi ed thi xem xet hd Kd lai suit eho edc doanh nghiep Kong linh vuc nay. 6. Nha nude nen tang eudng dii ban "chuong Kinh khuyln khich phdt triln thi trudng ndi dia", uu Hen cho mdt sd nganh ma Him ndng d i u ra ndi dia rat Idn va nganh sii dung nhilu lao ddng. Cd t h i neu ra eie ngdnh n b u det may, da giay, thii cdng nghiep, nhua ddn dung, c h i biln ndng san, thuy san. Trude diy, nhilu doanh nghiep q u i chii khdo: 1. Dang Xuan Thanh, 'Vet kiem hd gia dinh & Vi$t Nam", Vi$n kinh te Vi$l Nam. 2. GS.TS. Nguyin Van Thcrang, GS.TS. Nguyin Ke Tuin, "Kinh te Vidt Nam nam 2006 - Chat lucrng tang tru&ng va hpi nhap kinh te quoc te". Nha xuSt bin dai hQC Kinh te Quoc dan, 2007. 3. Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Mdt khudn khd chinh saeh phat then kinh te - xa hgi cho Vidt Nam giai doan 2011 - 2020. 4. tVlodigliani F "Vdng d&i, tiet kiem ca nhan va ciia cii cua cac quoc gia. Cac thuyet trinh tai li trao giii thu&ng Nobel ve khoa hQC kinh te 1981-1990". Nxb Chinh tri Quoc gia, H.:2000. 5. Nguyin Ngoc San, 'Tiet kidm - dau tir vi tang tru&ng kinh te & Vi$t Nam", Diin dan Phit trien VIQI Nam 6. Pham Dd Chi va Trin Nam Binh, Kinh te Viet Nam bu&c vio the ky XXI 7. Economic Intellegent Unit, Country report for Vietnam, 2/2009 8. IMF, Executive Board Concludes 2008 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam, 3/2009 9. Cass, David, "Optimal growth in an Aggregate Model of Capital Accumulation", Review of Economics studies Magazine, 32, 1965. 10. Louis Kuijs, How will China's saving investment balance evolve? WB China Research Paper, May 2006. 11. Mario Gutierres, Andres Solimano, Savings, Investment and grovrth in the global age: Analytical and Policy Issues. Working Paper A/. 43, The American University of Paris. 12. P. Mansson, J. Bayoumi and H. Samiel (1998), International Evidenceon the Determinants of Private Saving, The World Bank Economic Review, September 13. Solow, Robert (1956) "A contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth" Quarterly Journal of Economics 70 (February). 14. WB, Taking Stock, An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments. Report for the 15. Consultative Group Meeting for Vietnam. Kpng vao xud't khau nen da d l ngd thi trudng ndi dia eho nhilu hang hoi nhdp khau Kr Trung Qud'e, Thai Lan, Ddi Loan, Han Qudc... Ngdn saeh nhd nude nen danh ngan khoan dae bi?t cho"Chuong Kinh khuyen khich phdt Kiln thi trudng npi dia" n h u Id mdt khoan "kich cau" dae thii. Ddy ed thi coi Id mdt giai phdp ddn bay tii chinh Kong bdi eanh suy thodi kinh t l todn eau. $ Tdi lieu tham khdo: 1. Bio do ciia Ngan hang Nha nu&c vd then khai cho vay Hd tror Hi suit. (4/2009) 2. S& Giao djch chung khoin Thinh phd Hd Chi Minh (HOSE) - Thdng tin thi tnr&ng giao dich 3. Phin tich thi tnr&ng chung khoin cua FPTS, thing 4/2009. Til Chinh THANG 6/2009