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Can Africa Claim the st 21 Century? Can Africa Claim the st 21 Century? The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright © 2000 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing April 2000 The World Bank holds the copyright on this report on behalf of all the institutions that contributed to its development––the African Development Bank, African Economic Research Consortium, Global Coalition for Africa, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, and World Bank. Although the collaborating institutions endorse the main messages of the report, it does not necessarily reflect the official views of these institutions or of their boards of directors or affiliated institutions. ISBN: 0-8213-4495-1 Cover designed by Drew Fasick Photo credits for cover: World Bank Photo Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication (CIP) Data has been requested. To order: The World Bank P.O Box 960 Herndon, VA 20172-0960 USA Tel: 703 661-1580 or 1-800-645-7247 Fax: 703 661-1501 E-mail: books@worldbank.org Web: www.worldbank.org/publications ⑤ Text printed on paper that conforms to the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, Z39.48-1984 Contents Foreword x Acknowledgments Summary xii 1 1. Can Africa Claim the 21st Century? 7 The Challenge of African Development 7 Africa’s Growth Crisis: A Retrospective 18 Where Is Africa Now? Reforms and Their Legacy 28 Toward An Agenda for the Future 38 2. Improving Governance, Managing Conflict, and Rebuilding States 48 Characteristics of a Well-Functioning State 50 African Governance since Independence 51 Civil Conflict 57 Restructuring and Reforming Africa’s Institutions of Governance 64 3. Addressing Poverty and Inequality 83 Dimensions of Poverty 84 Inequality and Its Implications 92 Security 97 Strategies for Reducing Poverty in Africa 99 4. Investing in People 103 Africa’s Human Development Crisis 104 Why the Human Development Crisis? 111 Tools for Investing in Africa’s People 120 v C A N A F R I C A C L A I M T H E 2 1 ST C E N T U R Y ? 5. Lowering Infrastructure, Information, and Finance Barriers 132 Catching Up on Infrastructure 134 Exploiting Information and Communications Technology 153 Developing a Robust Financial Sector 160 6. Spurring Agricultural and Rural Development 170 Explaining the Poor Performance of African Agriculture 171 Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Policy Reforms 181 Exploiting the Synergy between Price and Nonprice Factors 187 A Business Plan for Agriculture in the 21st Century 192 7. Diversifying Exports, Reorienting Trade Policy, and Pursuing Regional Integration 208 Why Should Africa Diversify? 210 The Debate on Africa’s Diversification Potential 212 A Business Plan for Export Diversification 219 8. Reducing Aid Dependence and Debt and Strengthening Partnerships 235 The Context and Profile of Aid 238 Influences on and Outcomes of Aid 241 Forging a New Strategic Partnership 247 Away from Aid Dependence 255 References 259 Boxes 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 vi Gender and Growth: Africa’s Missed Potential 24 Industrial Productivity in Tanzania 26 Privatization in Côte d’Ivoire 32 The East Asian Crisis and Africa 34 Four Types of African Leadership 58 Costs of Conflict in Africa 59 Reversing a Spiral of Decline in Mozambique 61 The Contribution of Debt Relief in Uganda’s Repatriation of Flight Capital 64 Can Stable Development States Emerge in Ethnically Diverse Africa? 65 The Electoral Commission of Ghana 69 Kenya’s Office of Controller and Auditor-General 71 Toward Transparent Funding: Uganda’s Education Reforms 76 Decentralization in South Africa 77 CONTENTS 2.10 Different Routes to Better Government in Ghana and Guinea 79 2.11 The Organization pour l’Harmonisation en Afrique du Droit des Affaires 80 3.1 Voices of Africa’s Poor 85 3.2 Inequality in South Africa 94 3.3 Winners and Losers from Reform and Recovery in Ghana and Uganda 95 4.1 Waste in the Drug Supply System 115 4.2 Senegal Confronts AIDS 117 4.3 The Successful International Partnership against Onchocerciasis 121 4.4 Uganda’s Commitment to Basic Education 123 4.5 Improving Nutrition in Madagascar 125 4.6 Elements of Successful HIV/AIDS Programs 127 4.7 Chad’s Health and Safe Motherhood Project 128 5.1 The Gender Impact of Infrastructure Provision 140 5.2 Harnessing the Potential of Telecommunications 147 5.3 Private Involvement in Maritime Transport in Côte d’Ivoire 148 5.4 Privatization Based on Capital Markets 168 6.1 Centuries of Extraction from African Agriculture 174 6.2 OECD Subsidies to Agriculture—Equal to Africa’s GDP 177 6.3 Do African Farmers Respond to Price Incentives? 179 6.4 The 2KR Aid Program 188 6.5 Problems with Public Investment in African Agriculture 190 6.6 Developing Uganda’s Framework for Modernizing Agriculture 195 6.7 Ensuring Gender Equality in Access to Productive Assets and Services 196 6.8 Do Indigenous Land Rights Constrain Agricultural Investment and Productivity? 197 6.9 Poorly Developed Financial Systems and Limited Credit Systems 198 6.10 How Should Agriculture Be Taxed? 200 6.11 Regional Vigilance against Livestock Disease 204 7.1 Gains from Exporting in Africa 211 7.2 Challenges for Competitive Industrialization in Low-income Africa 212 7.3 Chances and Challenges for Tourism 216 7.4 Are the Geese Flying in Africa? 217 7.5 Why the Cost of Doing Business Is High in Africa 224 7.6 Why Risks Are Perceived As Being High 225 7.7 Listening to Business 226 7.8 Progress and Challenges for Africa’s Subregional Groups 228 7.9 The Cross-Border Initiative’s “Integration by Emergence” 230 8.1 Changing Thinking on Aid 239 8.2 Public Goods and Development Assistance 246 8.3 The Comprehensive Development Framework and Poverty Reduction Strategies 248 8.4 The Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative 250 8.5 The Common Pool Approach to Donor Coordination and Ownership 254 8.6 Conditionality Revisited: A New Approach in Burkina Faso 256 vii C A N A F R I C A C L A I M T H E 2 1 ST C E N T U R Y ? Figures 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 7.1 7.2 8.1 8.2 viii Change in GDP Per Capita, 1970–97 9 Growth, Exports, Investment, and Investment Productivity in Africa, 1964–67 20 Africa’s Share in World Exports by Product, 1970–93 21 Africa’s Terms of Trade by Country Group, 1965–97 22 Fiscal Deficits in Special Program of Assistance Countries, 1984–98 29 Growth in Output, Investment, and Exports in Africa, 1981–98 33 Africa’s Annual Growth, Investment, Exports, and Deficits by Country Group, 1995–98 36 Africa’s Circles of Cumulative Causation 39 Political Rights, Civil Liberties, and Economic Management in Africa by Country Group, 1990–99 40 Under-5 Mortality by GNP Per Capita and Region, 1995 87 Changes in Headcount Ratios and Per Capita Consumption in Selected Countries and Periods 92 How African Poverty Responds to Changes in Income and Inequality 101 Fertility Rates by Education Level and Region, 1960–2015 104 Gross Enrollment Rates by Region, 1980 and 1995 105 Mean Scores of Primary Students on Three Dimensions of Reading Comprehension in Four African Countries, 1998 107 Variations in the Burden of Disease by Region, 1998 108 Burden of Infectious Diseases in Africa, 1998 108 Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth in Selected African Countries, 1955–2000 109 Road Density and Road Length Per Capita in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, 1997 136 Africa’s Share of World Trade for Its Main Export Crops, 1970 and 1997 173 Levels of Centralized Rural Service Delivery in Various Parts of the Developing World, 1990s 176 Changes in Real Producer Prices of African Agricultural Exports, 1981–97 183 Simulated Annual Values of Industrial and Processed Exports by a Median Africa Country 218 Aspects of Africa’s Geography 219 Per Capita Transfers of Official Development Assistance to Africa, 1970–98 236 Actual Aid, Poverty-Reducing Aid, and Policy Ratings 243 CONTENTS Tables 1.1 1.2 Population, Income, and Economic Indicators by Region 8 Indicators of a Demographic Transition in Africa by Income Group 16 1.3 Human, Natural, and Physical Capital Indicators by Region 17 1.4 Cumulative Terms of Trade Effects and Financing Flows in Africa, 1970–97 22 1.5 Public Finance, External Support, Economic Management, Political Participation, and Risk Ranking Indicators by Region 30 3.1 Nutrition Measures for Children in Eight African Countries 88 3.2 Net Enrollments in 16 African Countries by Region––Consumption Quintile, and Gender, 1990s 89 3.3 Poverty in 21 African Countries Using National Poverty Lines, 1990s 90 3.4 Consumption Poverty in Various African Countries 91 3.5 Income Inequality by Region 93 3.6. Benefit Incidence of Public Health Spending in Various African Countries 96 3.7 Events Causing Hardship in Ethiopia, 1975–95 97 3.8 Movements In and Out of Poverty in Rural Ethiopia, 1989 and 1995 97 4.1 Gross Enrollment Rates in Africa, 1960–97 106 4.2 Public Spending on Education in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, 1975 and 1993 113 4.3 Spending on Health in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, 1990s 114 4.4 Education Unit Costs in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, 1975–93 115 5.1 Infrastructure Indicators by Region 135 5.2 Private Investment in Infrastructure in Various Countries, 1995 146 5.3 Selected Forms of Private Participation in Africa’s Railways, Airports, and Seaports 148 5.4 Inflation, Interest Rate Spreads, and Real Interest Rates in Africa and Asia, 1980–97 163 6.1 Agricultural Indicators for Africa, Asia, and Latin America 172 6.2 Internal Rates of Return on Agricultural Research and Extension Spending by Region 191 6.3 Africa’s Share of and Change in World Trade for Its Main Export Crops, 1970–97 192 7.1 Nontraditional Exports from Selected African Countries, 1994–98 215 ix Foreword Our central message is: Yes, Africa can claim the new century T HIS REPORT IS THE PRODUCT OF A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT THAT began in October 1998, when representatives of several institutions—including the African Development Bank, African Economic Research Consortium, Global Coalition for Africa, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, and World Bank—met to initiate a study on Sub-Saharan Africa’s prospects for economic and social development in the 21st century. The question of whether Sub-Saharan Africa (Africa) can claim the 21st century is complex and provocative. This report does not pretend to address all the issues facing Africa or to offer definitive solutions to all the challenges in the region’s future. Our central message is: Yes, Africa can claim the new century. But this is a qualified yes, conditional on Africa’s ability—aided by its development partners—to overcome the development traps that kept it confined to a vicious cycle of underdevelopment, conflict, and untold human suffering for most of the 20th century. The new century provides unique opportunities for Africa, and three emerging positive factors. The first is increasing political participation in Africa, opening the way to greater accountability and a new development discourse. Second, the end of the Cold War can help change Africa from a strategic and ideological battleground to a new business address for trade and development. Third, globalization and information and communications technology offer enormous opportunities for Africa to leapfrog stages of development. This report proposes strategies for ushering in self-reinforcing processes of economic, political, and social development. Progress is crucial on four fronts: ■ ■ ■ ■ Improving governance and resolving conflict. Investing in people. Increasing competitiveness and diversifying economies. Reducing aid dependence and strengthening partnerships. Africa is a diverse region. Some countries are caught in poverty and conflict—and where nation-building is failing, the prospects are cloudy. x