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04/01/2016 CHAPTER 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền MACROECONOMICS SIXTH EDITION N. GREGORY MANKIW PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovich © 2007 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved Trong chương này chúng ta sẽ học về….  Hệ thống ngân hàng tạo tiện như thế nào?  3 cách mà NHTW có thể kiểm soát được cung tiền và chỉ ra tại sao NHTW không thể kiểm soát một cách chính xác?  Lý thuyết về cầu tiền  a portfolio theory  a transactions theory: the Baumol-Tobin model CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 1 Banks’ role in the money supply  The money supply equals currency plus demand (checking account) deposits: M = C + D  Since the money supply includes demand deposits, the banking system plays an important role. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 2 1 04/01/2016 A few preliminaries  Reserves (R ): the portion of deposits that banks have not lent.  A bank’s liabilities include deposits, assets include reserves and outstanding loans.  100-percent-reserve banking: a system in which banks hold all deposits as reserves.  Fractional-reserve banking: a system in which banks hold a fraction of their deposits as reserves. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 3 SCENARIO 1: No banks With no banks, D = 0 and M = C = $1000. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 4 SCENARIO 2: 100-percent reserve banking  Initially C = $1000, D = $0, M = $1,000.  Now suppose households deposit the $1,000 at “Firstbank.” FIRSTBANK’S balance sheet Assets Liabilities reserves $1,000 deposits $1,000  After the deposit, C = $0, D = $1,000, M = $1,000.  100%-reserve banking has no impact on size of money supply. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 5 2 04/01/2016 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking  Suppose banks hold 20% of deposits in reserve, making loans with the rest.  Firstbank will make $800 in loans. FIRSTBANK’S balance sheet Assets Liabilities reserves $200 $1,000 deposits $1,000 loans $800 The money supply now equals $1,800:  Depositor has $1,000 in demand deposits.  Borrower holds $800 in currency. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 6 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking Thus, in a fractional-reserve banking system, banks create money. FIRSTBANK’S balance sheet Assets Liabilities reserves $200 loans $800 deposits $1,000 The money supply now equals $1,800:  Depositor has $1,000 in demand deposits.  Borrower holds $800 in currency. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 7 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking  Suppose the borrower deposits the $800 in Secondbank.  Initially, Secondbank’s balance sheet is: SECONDBANK’S balance sheet Assets Liabilities reserves $160 $800 loans $0 $640  Secondbank will loan 80% of this deposit. deposits $800 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 8 3 04/01/2016 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking  If this $640 is eventually deposited in Thirdbank,  then Thirdbank will keep 20% of it in reserve, and loan the rest out: THIRDBANK’S balance sheet Assets Liabilities reserves $128 $640 loans $0 $512 deposits $640 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 9 Finding the total amount of money: + + Original deposit = $1000 Firstbank lending = $ 800 Secondbank lending = $ 640 + Thirdbank lending + other lending… = $ 512 Total money supply = (1/rr )  $1,000 where rr = ratio of reserves to deposits In our example, rr = 0.2, so M = $5,000 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 10 Money creation in the banking system A fractional reserve banking system creates money, but it doesn’t create wealth: Bank loans give borrowers some new money and an equal amount of new debt. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 11 4 04/01/2016 A model of the money supply exogenous variables  Monetary base, B = C + R controlled by the central bank  Reserve-deposit ratio, rr = R/D depends on regulations & bank policies  Currency-deposit ratio, cr = C/D depends on households’ preferences CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 12 Solving for the money supply: M  C D  C D B B  m B where m   C D B C D   D D   cr  1 C D  C R C D   R D  cr  rr CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 13 The money multiplier M  m B, where m  cr  1 cr  rr  If rr < 1, then m > 1  If monetary base changes by B, then M = m  B  m is the money multiplier, the increase in the money supply resulting from a one-dollar increase in the monetary base. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 14 5 04/01/2016 Exercise M  m B, where m  cr  1 cr  rr Suppose households decide to hold more of their money as currency and less in the form of demand deposits. 1. Determine impact on money supply. 2. Explain the intuition for your result. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 15 Solution to exercise Impact of an increase in the currency-deposit ratio cr > 0. 1. An increase in cr increases the denominator of m proportionally more than the numerator. So m falls, causing M to fall. 2. If households deposit less of their money, then banks can’t make as many loans, so the banking system won’t be able to “create” as much money. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 16 Three instruments of monetary policy 1. Open-market operations 2. Reserve requirements 3. The discount rate CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 17 6 04/01/2016 Open-market operations  definition: The purchase or sale of government bonds by the Federal Reserve.  how it works: If Fed buys bonds from the public, it pays with new dollars, increasing B and therefore M. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 18 Reserve requirements  definition: Fed regulations that require banks to hold a minimum reserve-deposit ratio.  how it works: Reserve requirements affect rr and m: If Fed reduces reserve requirements, then banks can make more loans and “create” more money from each deposit. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 19 The discount rate  definition: The interest rate that the Fed charges on loans it makes to banks.  how it works: When banks borrow from the Fed, their reserves increase, allowing them to make more loans and “create” more money. The Fed can increase B by lowering the discount rate to induce banks to borrow more reserves from the Fed. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 20 7 04/01/2016 Which instrument is used most often?  Open-market operations: most frequently used.  Changes in reserve requirements: least frequently used.  Changes in the discount rate: largely symbolic. The Fed is a “lender of last resort,” does not usually make loans to banks on demand. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 21 Why the Fed can’t precisely control M M  m  B , where m  cr  1 cr  rr  Households can change cr, causing m and M to change.  Banks often hold excess reserves (reserves above the reserve requirement). If banks change their excess reserves, then rr, m, and M change. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 22 CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s  From 1929 to 1933,  Over 9,000 banks closed.  Money supply fell 28%.  This drop in the money supply may have caused the Great Depression. It certainly contributed to the severity of the Depression. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 23 8 04/01/2016 CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s cr  1 M  m  B , where m  cr  rr  Loss of confidence in banks  cr  m  Banks became more cautious  rr  m CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 24 CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s August 1929 March 1933 % change M 26.5 19.0 C 3.9 5.5 –28.3% 41.0 D 22.6 13.5 –40.3 B 7.1 8.4 18.3 C 3.9 5.5 41.0 R 3.2 2.9 –9.4 –37.8 m 3.7 2.3 rr 0.14 0.21 50.0 cr 0.17 0.41 141.2 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 25 Could this happen again?  Many policies have been implemented since the 1930s to prevent such widespread bank failures.  E.g., Federal Deposit Insurance, to prevent bank runs and large swings in the currency-deposit ratio. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 26 9 04/01/2016 Money Demand Two types of theories  Portfolio theories  emphasize “store of value” function  relevant for M2, M3  not relevant for M1. (As a store of value, M1 is dominated by other assets.)  Transactions theories  emphasize “medium of exchange” function  also relevant for M1 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 27 A simple portfolio theory (M /P )d = L (rs , rb ,  e , W ),     where rs = expected real return on stocks rb = expected real return on bonds  e = expected inflation rate W = real wealth CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 28 The Baumol-Tobin Model  a transactions theory of money demand  notation: Y = total spending, done gradually over the year i = interest rate on savings account N = number of trips consumer makes to the bank to withdraw money from savings account F = cost of a trip to the bank (e.g., if a trip takes 15 minutes and consumer’s wage = $12/hour, then F = $3) CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 29 10