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A Collaborative Research Project Funded by: Implemented by: An Overview of the Poultry Sector and Status of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Kenya —Background Paper John M. Omiti Sam O. Okuthe Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper No. 4 Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Reduction Table of Contents Page PREFACE ...................................................................................................................................... VI ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .............................................................................................. VIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. X 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Motivation ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Significance and scope ............................................................................................................ 1 1.3 Summary of key findings ......................................................................................................... 1 1.4 Road map ................................................................................................................................ 2 2. VITAL COUNTRY STATISTICS ................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Size and location...................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 National capital and its population .......................................................................................... 5 2.3 Gross domestic product ........................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Human Development Indicators .............................................................................................. 8 2.5 Administrative regions and their population ........................................................................... 9 2.6 Information gaps ...................................................................................................................... 9 3. AN OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMICS AND STRUCTURE OF THE POULTRY SECTOR .................. 10 3.1 Contribution of the poultry sector to the GDP ...................................................................... 10 3.2 Linkage of the poultry sector to other industries .................................................................. 11 3.3 Structure of the poultry sector .............................................................................................. 12 3.4 Poultry production, marketing, consumption and trade ....................................................... 18 3.5 Knowledge gaps ..................................................................................................................... 24 4. POULTRY AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS ................................................................................... 25 4.1 Backyard poultry production – labour and gender issues ..................................................... 25 4.2 Importance of poultry in household income ......................................................................... 27 4.3 Importance of poultry in nutrition and food security ............................................................ 27 4.4 Importance of poultry in local culture and/or religion .......................................................... 28 4.5 Gaps in knowledge ................................................................................................................. 29 5. REVIEW OF POULTRY SECTOR AND BIO SECURITY ............................................................... 30 5.1 Breeding sub-system .............................................................................................................. 30 5.2 Farms rearing parent stock and hatcheries ........................................................................... 36 5.3 Producers of commercial broilers and layers......................................................................... 37 5.4 Backyard poultry production ................................................................................................. 46 5.5 Support service actors............................................................................................................ 49 5.6 Informal sector chicken and egg traders................................................................................ 52 5.7 Production systems and biosecurity ...................................................................................... 55 5.8 Imports ................................................................................................................................... 56 5.9 Knowledge gaps in the poultry sector and biosecurity .......................................................... 58 6. PREVIOUS HPAI RESEARCH AND FINDINGS IN KENYA ............................................................... 60 6.1 Previous studies ..................................................................................................................... 60 6.2 Research gaps......................................................................................................................... 61 7. ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF HPAI ............................................................................................ 62 7.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 62 7.2 Economic impacts of HPAI ..................................................................................................... 62 7.3 Information gaps .................................................................................................................... 64 8. THREATS AND INCIDENCES OF HPAI AND INSTITUTIONALRESPONSE CAPACITY.................... 65 8.1 Poultry diseases in Kenya ....................................................................................................... 65 8.2 Research and information gaps on poultry diseases ............................................................. 67 8.3 Highly pathogenic avian influenza ......................................................................................... 67 8.4 Overview of wild birds and migratory patterns ..................................................................... 68 8.5 Veterinary Services in Kenya .................................................................................................. 71 8.6 Country response to an outbreak .......................................................................................... 73 9. RISK ASSESSMENT .............................................................................................................. 84 iii Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper 10. 9.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 84 9.2 Risk assessment studies carried out ...................................................................................... 86 9.3 Research and information gaps ............................................................................................. 88 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................... 89 List of Tables Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 13 Table 14 Table 15 Table 16 Table 17 Table 18 Table 19 Table 20 Table 21 Table 22 Table 23 Table 24 Table 25 Table 26 Table 27 Table 28 Table 29 Table 30 Table 31 Table 32 Table 33 Table 34 Number and percentage of households engaged in crop farming and livestock keeping in Kenya’s eight provinces.......................................................................................... 8 Literacy rates of 15+ years in Kenya by province and gender ................................................. 8 Characteristics of Kenya’s human population by Province ..................................................... 9 Intercensal population growth rates in the eight provinces of Kenya .................................... 9 Average number of chicken reared by a Kenyan household and percentage of households keeping different numbers of chicken by Province ........................................... 10 Characteristics of poultry production systems in developing countries ............................... 13 Distribution of chicken hatcheries in Kenya .......................................................................... 14 Licensed ostrich farms in Kenya ............................................................................................ 15 Number of poultry farms in the commercial, semi-commercial and village production systems by Province............................................................................................ 16 Estimated number of day old chicks produced by main hatcheries in Kenya in 2004 .......... 18 Poultry population in Kenya by Province between 2001 and 2006 ...................................... 18 Production and demand projections for eggs and poultry meat in Kenya (20042010) ...................................................................................................................................... 20 Average retail prices of chicken in Nairobi, 2008 .................................................................. 21 Export and imports of different poultry products in Kenya between 2002 and 2006 .......... 21 Distribution of households surveyed..................................................................................... 25 Proportion of household members deciding and obtaining income from eggs and live birds................................................................................................................................. 26 Mean annual income from various sources for the 319 households surveyed) ................... 27 Mean scores of roles played by poultry as reported in Kenyan Society (2006) .................... 28 Sources of local chickens in Kwale District, Kenya ................................................................ 28 Special local dishes with poultry products as one of the main ingredients .......................... 29 Presence or absence of poultry breeding line in Kenya ........................................................ 30 Commercial sector actors involved in poultry breeding in Kenya ......................................... 31 Population of different categories of birds at Kenchic farms................................................ 32 Main poultry feed millers and their location in the country ................................................. 44 List of slaughterhouses and their location ............................................................................ 49 Main market outlets for private slaughterhouses in Makueni .............................................. 51 Matrix showing interaction between different groups of actors .......................................... 54 Stability (continuity) of each actor over time and space ....................................................... 55 Changes in mean flock sizes in September 2005 and May 2006 ........................................... 62 Comparison of the number of birds culled prematurely and those culled normally and associated revenue lost .................................................................................................. 62 Mean farm-gate prices for poultry and poultry products before and during the AI scare in surveyed districts ..................................................................................................... 63 Quantities of vaccine used to control poultry diseases in Kenya (2001 and 2002) .............. 67 Kenyan avian influenza regional rapid response teams ........................................................ 78 iv Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Reduction List of Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Figure 13 Figure 14 Figure 15 Figure 16 Figure 17 Kenya and its neighbours ....................................................................................................... 3 Distribution of poultry in Kenya ............................................................................................. 5 Annual growth rates of GDP and agricultural GDP (2000-2006) ........................................... 6 Annual growth rates of different livestock species (2002-2006) ........................................... 7 Linkage of the poultry sector with other industries ............................................................ 11 Proportion of poultry feed millers by Province in 2004 ...................................................... 12 Trends of poultry population in Kenya (2001-2006)............................................................ 20 Market channels for commercial chickens and eggs in Kenya ........................................... 23 Market channels for indigenous chickens and eggs in Kenya.............................................. 24 Proportion of household heads in different education categories ..................................... 26 Interactions between the different players in the poultry production chain in Kenya ....... 35 Commercial guinea fowl production in North Coast Kenya................................................. 40 Indigenous poultry sub sector map for Kilifi and Kwale districts, coast province ............... 53 Modes of chicken transport in Kenya .................................................................................. 58 Wild Bird Migratory Pathways and Landmark (Lakes, Highlands) in Kenya ........................ 69 Bird movement patterns and birds’ interacting with domestic poultry in sector 4 ............ 71 New avian influenza risk map by district for Kenya ............................................................. 86 List of Annexes ANNEX 1 Annotated bibliography of key literature .............................................................................. 92 ANNEX 2 Other Bibliography............................................................................................................... 103 ANNEX3 Organogram for the Ministry of Livestock Development and collaborating Institutions ........................................................................................................................... 107 v Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper Preface Since its re-emergence, HPAI H5N1 has attracted considerable public and media attention because the viruses involved have been shown to be capable of producing fatal disease in humans. While there is fear that the virus may mutate into a strain capable of sustained human-to-human transmission, the greatest impact to date has been on the highly diverse poultry industries in affected countries. In response to this, HPAI control measures have so far focused on implementing prevention and eradication measures in poultry populations, with more than 175 million birds culled in Southeast Asia alone. Until now, significantly less emphasis has been placed on assessing the efficacy of risk reduction measures, including their effects on the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and their families. In order to improve local and global capacity for evidence-based decision making on the control of HPAI (and other diseases with epidemic potential), which inevitably has major social and economic impacts, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) has agreed to fund a collaborative, multidisciplinary HPAI research project for Southeast Asia and Africa. The specific purpose of the project is to aid decision makers in developing evidence-based, pro-poor HPAI control measures at national and international levels. These control measures should not only be cost-effective and efficient in reducing disease risk, but also protect and enhance livelihoods, particularly those of smallholder producers in developing countries, who are and will remain the majority of livestock producers in these countries for some time to come. This report is the first step of the project which has compiled and assessed the current state of knowledge of poultry systems and their place in the larger economy of the study country, the current HPAI situation and its evolution, and institutional experiences with its control (or, where it has not taken place, contingency places should it arise). This information has been written by a multidisciplinary national team in the study country highlighting the current knowledge and knowledge gaps related to the interface of poultry, HPAI, and institutional response as a crucial first step to the analytical research outputs to be generated in the course of this project. In the process of writing the background paper a variety of country-specific data and information sources on poultry systems, HPAI, and mitigation/control efforts, including published and grey literature, national statistics, journal articles, and reports from other research efforts that are ongoing in the country have been complied into a data base located at the project web site http://www.hpairesearch.net/index.html. vi Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Reduction Authors John M. Omiti, Senior Policy Analyst and Head, Productive Section Division, The Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) Sam Okuthe, Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) Disclaimer The views expressed in this report are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily endorsed by or representative of IFPRI, or of the cosponsoring or supporting organizations. This report is intended for discussion. It has not yet undergone editing. Acknowledgements We acknowledge the valuable contributions of all colleagues who reviewed and made suggestions to the manuscript, and are grateful to DFID for funding this project. More information For more information about the project please refer to www.hpai-research.net. vii Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper Acronyms and Abbreviations AGID AHSP AI ASALs AU-IBAR BSE CAHWs CDC CIA CVFO CVIO CVL DANIDA DOC DRC DVO DVS ELISA EPZ EPZA ESS FAO GDP GIS GoK GPS HDI HE HPAI IBD ILRI ITK JKIA KALT KELITA KEPHIS Kg Km Ksh. KVB KWS LHA LHA LO M MoLFD NAI ND NMK NOC OIE PACE Agar Gel Immuno Diffusion Animal Health Service Providers Avian Influenza Arid and Semi Arid Lands African Union – InterAfrica Bureau on Animal Resources Bovine Spongiform Encelopathy Community based Animal Health Workers Centre for Disease Control and Prevention Central Intelligence Agency Chief Veterinary Field Officer Chief Veterinary Investigation Officer Central Veterinary Laboratory Danish International Development Agency Day Old Chicks Democratic Republic of Congo District Veterinary Officer Department of Veterinary Services Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay Export Processing Zone Export Processing Zone Authority Epidemio-Surveillance System Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations Gross Domestic Product Geographical Information systems Government of Kenya Grand Parent Stock Human Development Index Hatched Eggs Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Infectious Bursal Disease International Livestock Research Institute Indigenous Technical Knowledge Jomo Kenyatta International Airport Kenya Association of Livestock Technicians Kenya Livestock Technicians Association Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service Kilogram Kilometre Kenya shilling; 1US dollar = Ksh 64 (July 2008) Kenya Veterinary Board Kenya Wildlife Services Livestock Health Assistant Livestock Health Assistant Livestock Officer Metre Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development Notifiable Avian Influenza Newcastle disease National Museums of Kenya National Office Disaster Management Committee World Organisation for Animal Health Pan African Programme for the Control of Epizootics viii Pro-Poor HPAI Risk Reduction PCR PDVS PS RAT RVIL SARS UNDP UNICEF USAID VEEU WHO Polymerace Chain Reaction Provincial Director of Veterinary Services Parent Stock Rapid Antigen Test Regional Veterinary Investigation Laboratory Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome United Nations Development Programme United Nations Children Fund United States Aid Development Agency Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics Unit, Kabete World Health Organisation ix Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper Executive Summary Poultry keeping in Kenya plays a major role as a livelihood source, an income generating activity as well meeting other socio-cultural roles. Poultry production is, however, threatened by the emerging HPAI threat that has devastated other parts of the world. This study documented available information on the poultry sector. The objective was to identify knowledge gaps that HPAI research in Kenya should focus on. A thorough review of existing literature was done including searches over the internet. The study found that Kenya had about 37 million birds in 2006 of which 84.1% were free-ranging indigenous birds, 8.4% were layers, 5.7% were broilers while other poultry species accounted for 1.8%. About 65% of Kenyan households keep chickens; each household keeps about 12 chickens on average. Poultry are produced in four main production systems, which are labelled Sectors 1 – 4 according to the FAO/OIE classification. Sector 1 consists of the integrated industrial producers (big companies), Sector 2 is made up of hatcheries, and Sector 3 is dominated by smallholder semi-commercial farmers while Sector 4 constitutes the village or “backyard” (traditional) poultry production system. The September 2005 HPAI scare is estimated to have caused a loss of about Ksh 2.3 billion (US$40,000) mainly due to reduced demand for poultry products as consumers shunned away these products. Prices of poultry and poultry products declined due to the scare. For instance, the price of one broiler, indigenous chicken and spent layer declined by 15%, 26% and 29% during the period of the HPAI scare. The price of indigenous eggs fell by 7% while that of the commercial eggs decreased by 15%. Significant gaps in knowledge still remain. Based on these findings, the study recommends the following: • • • • There is a need to conduct a poultry population census (possibly together with that of other livestock species) in order to update and validate existing data. There is a need to create awareness of HPAI among producers and consumers of poultry products in order to reduce their ignorance on the disease transmission and therefore avert possible losses due to a HPAI scare. Compensatory mechanisms should be instituted, possibly through poultry insurance schemes, in order to cushion farmers and businesses in the poultry sector from economic losses associated with a HPAI outbreak or scare of an outbreak. The veterinary department should come up with clear guidelines on the appropriate control approaches for the disease (e.g. to vaccinate or not vaccinate). Research is also needed in the following areas: • • • • • • • • Evaluation of the poultry sector value chains to identify “hot spots” for HPAI entry to aid in designing effective control/eradication strategies; Evaluation of different marketing channels of poultry and poultry products with a view to identifying key actors (who are they, how many, what are their incentives, how are they organized, etc) in those channels and their level of awareness of HPAI and its potential threat; Evaluation of different segments of consumers with a view to promoting consumer awareness of HPAI risk; Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of alternative HPAI control strategies in the wake of a potential outbreak; Appropriate compensation mechanisms that are suitable for the structure of the poultry sector in Kenya; Potential losses arising from a disease outbreak or scare; Risk analysis as a component of early warning system in risk based surveillance strategy; and Impact of the disease and the control measures on the livelihoods of the poor. x